Mexico wants its top ten coffee status back

With an intense focus on growing domestic consumption and exports, Mexico aims to reclaim its position among the world’s top coffee producers. Its tea industry, although small, also shows growth potential. By Eugene Gerden

Mexico eyes becoming one of the leading players in the global coffee market, which will take place by increasing both domestic consumption and exports.

Despite a tough economic environment, the demand for coffee and its consumption in Mexico remains strong, which is also leading to the growth of its local production.

According to the Mexican Ministry of Agriculture and Development (SADER), coffee is a strategic crop in Mexico — its production currently employs more than 500,000 producers from 15 states and 480 municipalities. In total, 94.1 percent of its coffee production is located in five provinces: Chiapas, Veracruz, Puebla, Oaxaca and Guerrero. More than 92 percent of the coffee supply comes from small producers, who grow coffee on less than two hectares.

SADER figures indicate that Chiapas is the main producing state, contributing 41.3 percent followed by Veracruz with 24.4 percent, and Oaxaca with 8.2 percent. Coffee currently represents 0.66 percent of Mexico’s national agricultural GDP (gross domestic product) and 1.34 percent of the overall production of agro-industrial goods in the country. Still, this is just the beginning, as state plans include creating conditions to increase both coffee production and consumption within the next several years.

In accordance with Mexico’s National Agricultural Planning, it is estimated that in 2030, national consumption will increase from 0.80 to 0.94 million tonnes, and that national production will expand from 0.82 to 4.7 million tonnes. Exports should also grow, which will allow Mexico to re-enter the ranks of the world’s top-ten largest coffee producers and exporters. It currently stands in eleventh place.

As for coffee retail sector, according to data presented during Expo Café 2023, the coffee industry’s main event in Mexico, the coffee sector grew by 5 percent in 2023. That was mainly due to local consumption jumping from 230,000 tonnes in 2020 to 311,000 tonnes in 2022, an increase of 37 percent. In 2023 the consumption exceeded 320,000 tonnes.

In addition to more than 500,000 producers, Mexico’s coffee sector consists of more than 75,500 coffee shops, the number of which is constantly growing.

According to analysts’ predictions, there could more than 80,000 cafeterias by the end Q1 2024, with annual growth between 5 percent and 7 percent in terms of new units, capable of employing more than 377,000 Mexicans (averaging five people per cafeteria).

In general, coffee shops are presently one of the most profitable businesses in Mexico, which attracts many domestic and foreign entrepreneurs.

Most coffee shops are concentrated in the country’s four largest cities – Mexico City (the capital), Jalisco, Guanajuato and Puebla – which all together make up about 45 percent of those establishments throughout Mexico.

Producers under pressure

Mexico is currently ranked as the ninth biggest coffee-producing country in the world (in terms of land) with the harvested area of 646,00 hectares (ha) and with a production of about 987,000 tonnes.

However, experts of the Mexican Institute of Ecology, Inecol, have recently warned that despite its coffee sector maintaining generally good results the past few years, the current tough economic situation in Mexico has put a serious pressure on Mexico’s coffee farmers, some of which may declare bankruptcy in the short-term, which is mainly due to low incomes (earning 75 percent below the national minimum wage), the lack of state support, and climate change.

Analysts report that coffee yields in Mexico are among the lowest in Latin America (five to seven quintals per ha), which led to the country dropping from once being the fourth largest coffee producer in the world to the eleventh.

Multinationals show interest

Most independent analysts believe that despite the existing challenges, Mexico’s coffee and tea sectors recorded generally good results last year and have prospects for further growth in 2024.

According to Alberto Trueba, research & data analyst at Euromonitor International, in the case of coffee, in 2023 there was a 2 percent volume growth in the retail category on a year-on-year basis. “In general, [locals] are becoming more cautious in their spending habits. However, the desire for a delightful cup of coffee persists. Currently, more and more local people prefer to consume more coffee at home, while seeking new flavours or experiences with each cup.”

Historically, the Mexican coffee sector has been within the sphere of interests of global players. In recent years, many of them have significantly strengthened their positions in the local market, planning further expansion.

One such company is Nestlé, which remains one of the leading players in the Mexican coffee sector, providing active support to local farmers through the various local programmes, such as Nescafé Plan 2030. There are 80,000 Mexican producers who are part of the Nescafé supply chain. Through its Nescafé Plan 2030, Nestlé has been cooperating with academic and research institutions to establish better coffee plants, training for producers, and technical assistance.

Nestlé is the number one buyer of coffee in Mexico, buying 30 percent of the national production from more than 80,000 producers. In addition, the company recently launched a number of new products across different categories such as Dolce Gusto coffee capsules with Starbucks Vanilla Madagascar and White Mocha flavours. Nescafé also introduced Nescafé Ice, a variant of its flagship product, which is the first instant coffee in Mexico designed for cold preparation.

However, Nestlé is not the only global player that is actively expanding in the Mexican market. Another is The Coca-Cola Company’s Costa Coffee, which recently introduced its new coffee machine to the market. This machine offers a level of beverage personalisation akin to what a barista would provide.

Tea: small but growing

In case of tea, in Mexico and Latin America, tea consumption has increased continuously over the last ten years, but even so, there are few people who consume this drink regularly, so the opportunities for growth and development in the industry are enormous. A significant part of local needs in tea is met by imports.

According to data from Mexico’s food title, TheFoodTech, Mexico’s annual tea imports vary from 1,200 to 1,400 tonnes, making it the second largest tea importer in Latin America, behind only Chile. The Mexican tea market is estimated at USD $79.3 million, with the possibility of reaching $98 million by 2026. The leading brands are those that are sold by large retailers. The main players are La Pastora, with 20.1 percent of the market; McCormick, with 19.4 percent; and Therbal, with 18.2 percent.

While tea consumption in Mexico is growing, it is still small as there is no tea culture in the country. Mexicans consume 12 grams of tea a year, the equivalent of six cups. By comparison, in Turkey, the country that drinks the most tea, consumption per person per year is around 3 kilograms, per Euromonitor International.

Trueba noted that there was a 0.3 percent volume growth in retail in 2023, exceeding the figures from 2022. “In terms of value, there was a 1.3 percent growth, also higher than in 2022. The slight growth of the tea category can be attributed to various factors, including health trends observed since the Covid-19 pandemic.”

Euromonitor International’s Voice of the Industry: Food and Nutrition Survey in 2023 found that 65 percent of the food and beverage companies in Mexico consider the use of natural ingredients, less processed ingredients, and additives with additional functionalities to be very or extremely influential in the coming years. This trend has significantly impacted the entire category, with particular emphasis on green tea, which experienced the highest growth in both value and volume in 2023.

Similar to the coffee category, people are increasingly consuming tea at home. Despite many individuals returning to their pre-pandemic routines of full-time work and school, they also seek to spend more time at home with family or alone,” said Trueba. “According to our Voice of the Consumer: Lifestyles Survey in 2023, 28 percent of Mexican consumers seek to spend more time taking care of themselves, often aligning with the consumption of indulgent products. This has driven the consumption of tea at home, replicating drinks from the foodservice channel.”

The importance of e-commerce

Euromonitor and other interviewed experts also anticipate e-commerce playing a supporting role in coffee and tea growth due to its inherent advantages and convenience.

Success will also depend on effective brand positioning, given the inclination of coffee and tea consumers to remain loyal to their preferred brand and their minimal tendency to switch to more affordable alternatives, driven by the paramount importance placed on taste. Consequently, social media will continue to play a pivotal role in brand-positioning campaigns.

Euromonitor also expects social media to be instrumental in promoting premium products, such as Dolce Gusto’s coffee capsules designed for cappuccino with lactose-free milk. The upward trajectory of this trend is expected to endure in the coming years, driven by the growing influence of social media in the Mexican market and its facilitation of enhancing the positioning of new or existing products.

Most analysts believe Mexico’s coffee market will continue growing in 2024, driven mainly by new product launches that focus on indulgence and convenience. The introduction of Nescafé ICE, the first instant coffee for cold preparation, and Dolce Gusto Frappé coffee capsules for homemade frappés, are part of this trend.

Regarding the tea sector, Euromonitor reports that growth will also be observed both in value and volume terms, with a 2.2 percent increase in both cases, surpassing the figures seen in 2023. These growth projections are supported by the relaunch of existing products or the introduction of new ones, where functional ingredients will play a significant role.

Health trends will continue to drive growth in the category, as tea is perceived as a healthy beverage. Brands such as Lagg’s emphasise the benefits of their wellness line on packaging, highlighting infusions like Sleeping Time and Gastro Plus.

Moreover, the growth of the category is expected to be supported by several brands promoting tea consumption in various social scenarios, emphasising an experiential aspect beyond the act of drinking tea. For instance, Twinings underscores in its advertising campaigns that its products can be consumed hot, cold, or as mocktails.

• Eugene Gerden is an international freelance writer, who specialises in covering the global coffee, tea and agricultural industries. He works for several industry titles and may be reached at [email protected].

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