Decaf coffee is gaining popularity in global markets as more and more customers follow the current wellbeing trend, considering it as a healthy alternative to common coffee.

In contrast to Western markets that already have large numbers of decaf coffee consumers, the popularity of coffee without caffeine (or with a small content of it) is just gaining momentum in several emerging nations, many of which can provide significant growth opportunities for players operating in this market segment.

The existing big potential of the decaf coffee market is confirmed by research data. According to predictions of international research agency, Skyquest Technology, over the next seven years, the decaf coffee market will grow by six to seven percent annually, reaching USD $28.86 billion by 2030. By comparison, in 2022, this figure was $19.5 billion. The growth will be observed both in developed nations and emerging countries, where such growth rates are expected to be higher.

As for developed nations, it is expected the United States will be a major driver of growth for decaf coffee in years to come as the demand for coffee with less caffeine among local consumers remains high.

The National Coffee Association (NCA) of the USA reports that more consumers across the country are adopting healthier lifestyles, which may also be associated with increased coffee consumption, since scientific evidence continues to strengthen and shows that both decaffeinated and regular coffee are associated with decreased risk of multiple cancers and chronic diseases.

Speaking with T&CTJ, William “Bill” Murray, president and CEO of the NCA, said decaf coffee has already become an integral part of life for many Americans. “Like regular coffee, decaf is a mainstay in Americans’ lives, and we expect that to continue. Signs point to growth for decaf with Americans over the age of 40, and opportunities for decaf to adjust to consumers’ tastes and interests are abundant.”

Murray further noted that consumers are more interested in health and wellness than ever before and that “there is growing awareness that decaffeinated coffee is associated with decreased risk of multiple cancers and chronic diseases.”

In accordance with NCA’s Spring 2024 National Coffee Data Trends (NCDT) Report, seven percent of Americans had decaf coffee in the past day, and past-day decaf consumption is increasing among Americans ages 40-plus.

Per the NCDT report, past-day decaf consumption is highest for Americans in the 60-plus age group, ten percent of whom had decaf in the past day – up by 11 percent since July 2023. At the same time, past-day decaf consumption has also increased for Americans ages 40-59, with six percent drinking a decaf in the past day – up by 20 percent since July 2023.

Consumption grows in Scandinavia

In the European Union, the biggest growth in demand and consumption of decaf coffee has been observed in certain Nordic states – the countries which are known for their record coffee consumption in general.

One such country is Finland, where sales of decaf coffee have been rapidly growing since the beginning of the 2020s.

Löfbergs instant decaf coffee. Image: Löfbergs

Marleena Tanhuanpää, director of the Finnish Food and Drink Industries´ Federation, said that in recent years there has been a positive trend and continuous sales increase for decaffeinated coffee in Finland. “It is definitely trending at the moment as [there has been an increase in the number] of new locally roasted products, [along with] increased visibility and assortment availability, which is raising consumer interest [in decaf coffee].” Tanhuanpää further noted that decaf coffee innovations coming from local roasteries such as filter coffee with good taste profiles that meet the local needs and preferences are helping drive growth.

“The absolute user amount is still limited in the market but the potential for further growth is there,” Tanhuanpää explained, adding, “especially with the younger (under 35 years old) urban demographic, and women, in particular, are interested in decaffeinated coffee – they want to enjoy the taste of coffee, but regular coffee is not always the most suitable option.”

In neighbouring Denmark, the demand for decaf coffee also remains high, although the share of the segment in the overall Danish coffee market is small.

Henrik Frellsen, the chairman of the Danish Coffee Association and CEO of Frellsen Kaffe, one of the biggest local coffee producers, said decaf coffee currently makes up a small share of the coffee market in Nordic countries. “In Denmark, it accounts for less than one percent of the volume, [which is] constant and has historically remained at this level.”

He does not expect a sharp growth of the segment in years to come despite believing in its huge future potential. “We foresee no significant development at this level. In recent years, coffee has transitioned from a product perceived as less healthy to one that naturally fits into a healthy lifestyle. Therefore, caffeine no longer appears to be harmful,” Frellsen explained. “However, increased awareness of the importance of sleep for health pulls in the opposite direction. In Nordic food culture, there is a loyalty to pure raw materials. Hence, [those] with this concern would choose an alternative beverage later in the day rather than a decaf coffee.”

Some analysts report that the estimated potential of decaf coffee is too exaggerated and does not correspond to some current realities. Referencing the most recent edition of Euromonitor International’s Voice of the Consumer: Health and Nutrition Survey, Matthew Barry, insight manager, Food and Beverage at Euromonitor International, said that self-reported interest in drinking less caffeine or none at all reached a new record high, at 46 percent of respondents. “You could interpret that to mean we were at the verge of an explosion in decaf. After all, that is nearly half of adults in the world saying they want to drink less caffeine. But I don’t see things that way. The reality is that caffeine is just too important for people to get through their days so this represents an aspiration more than anything else. I think this signals that people recognise that they need to take actions to mitigate some of the negative side effects of excess caffeine consumption.”

Barry noted that the data absolutely shows there has been a real explosion of products with calming, relaxing, or sleep-promoting claims across food and beverage in recent years. “Essentially, rather than switch their morning coffee to decaf, consumers are sticking with the regular coffee and looking for something in the evening to calm them down and help them sleep. People want to have it all,” he said.

The decaf coffee market is also of great interest to the global majors, many of which have significantly strengthened their positions in it in recent years. For example, illycaffè, the Italian coffee producer, considers the decaf coffee segment a priority.

Francesco Bosso, chief commercial officer of illycaffè, said the company offers decaffeinated coffee in its range with all preparations to satisfy the taste of all consumers. In recent years, he said, the

illy’s low caffeine coffee, Idillyum. Image: illycaffè

demand for such coffee has significantly increased, noting that “usually, decaffeinated coffee is preferred by one out of four consumers and mainly as an alternative to coffee in the evening.” Bosso said that illy coffee is a blend composed of 100 percent Arabica beans of the best quality, which by its nature contains a lower amount of caffeine than Robusta coffee. “In addition, for consumers who are looking for a preparation with a very low caffeine content, we also propose Idillyum, a coffee composed only of the fine Arabica variety called Laurina, grown specifically for our company in El Salvador. This product naturally has a very low caffeine content, less than one percent (a third less than the classic Arabica varieties and less than half of Robusta).”

Bosso expects the demand for decaf coffee will continue to grow, while the growth of the segment will be comparable to the dynamics of the entire coffee market.

Regarding further market prospects, most of the interviewed analysts and producers believe the demand for decaf coffee will continue to grow in years to come, as more and more customers will position it as a heathy alternative to traditional coffee. That will be primarily observed in such countries as Russia, which has low decaf coffee consumption.

Tanhuanpää believes that decaffeinated coffee will continue to increase its share driven by the wellbeing trend that has for many years already been present in many food and drink categories, for example, driving growth of non-alcoholic beer. “The need for relaxation without compromising the enjoyment of coffee is one driver for decaffeinated coffee consumption,” she said. “And according to our research, the usage situations for decaf coffee can be varied, not only limited to evening use. One motivation can be the stomach friendliness of decaf coffee.”

• Eugene Gerden is an international freelance writer who specialises in covering the global coffee, tea and agricultural industries. He works for several industry titles and may be reached at gerden.eug@gmail.com.

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Dean was previously media and communications editor at the SAH, where she worked for more than a decade. Before that, she held the position of communications and marketing assistant at New College of Florida.

In her new senior leadership role at NCA, Dean will be responsible for guiding the organisation’s communications strategy, ensuring alignment with the NCA’s mission and strategic goals. This includes developing and managing comprehensive marketing and communication strategies, ensuring a consistent and credible NCA voice across its platforms.

NCA president and CEO William “Bill” Murray commented, “The NCA team is excited to welcome Helena and add her expertise to the team. With her background in strategic, multi-channel communications and brand strategy, Helena will be instrumental in taking NCA’s communications to the next level for the benefit of our members and the coffee community at large.”

Dean will join the NCA Team at the 2024 NCA Convention in Nashville, 7-9 March 2024.

For further information contact: media@ncausa.org

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In his new role, Cariani will continue to grow NCA’s educational programming and market research, including its webinars programme, convention programming, and National Coffee Data Trends Market Research Series. In addition, Cariani’s unique position as an innovator and problem solver will help guide the NCA into the future using new tools and tactics in alignment with the organisation’s forward-looking Strategic Plan.

“We couldn’t be happier with the work Matt has done to transform our organisation over these past ten years,” said William “Bill” Murray, NCA president and CEO. “His work ethic, intellectual curiosity, and unique professional and educational background have made him an essential asset to the organisation. With this promotion, we aim to recognise his many and unique contributions to our growing association and industry.”

Robert Menos, NCA board of directors chair, also praised the decision, saying, “Having worked with Matt for many years, I know firsthand the critical role he plays in shaping the future of the NCA. I look forward to seeing what he accomplishes next with this well-deserved promotion.”

Cariani has been with NCA since May 2013 and is based out of the NCA headquarters in New York City’s Financial District.

For more information, contact media@ncausa.org.

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The USD $225 billion US coffee sector and more than 1.6 million US jobs rely on coffee supplies from around the world. Coffee growers in Hawaii and Puerto Rico that supply the lucrative specialty coffee market in the US, as well as growers in low-income countries, are particularly vulnerable to pests and disease. The CPHIAA will accelerate agricultural research to help overcome these challenges while maintaining flavour and quality.

“More Americans (66 per cent of adults) drink coffee each day more than any other beverage,” said William “Bill” Murray, president and CEO of the NCA. “As agricultural research and development plays a key role in the future of America’s favourite beverage, the NCA urges Congress to advance legislation that prioritises coffee as a key contributor to Americans’ daily lives, farmers’ livelihoods, and the US economy.”

“From Kona to Maui to Mayaguez, coffee is woven into our island cultures and drives over $500 million in benefits to our communities,” said Suzanne Shriner, administrator of SHAC. “Hawaiian growers have been devastated by diseases such as leaf rust, which arrived in 2020 and cut crop yields in half after causing $1 billion in damages globally and forcing farm workers, particularly in Central America, to abandon farms and even migrate. This bill focuses needed research attention on our biggest problems, while helping our small farmers stay in business.”

Legislators are seeking to include the CPHIAA in the 2023 Farm Bill to amend a programme established in the 1990 Farm Bill that focused exclusively on the coffee berry borer pest. The bill authorises the USDA to fund research on coffee diseases and pests broadly. “The existing Coffee Plant Health Initiative Act does two things: first, it says ‘coffee plant health’ is a priority of the industry, therefore ‘should’ receive support, but it limits that directive to supporting research on coffee berry borer,” said Hanna Neuschwander, strategy and communications director, World Coffee Research told T&CTJ. “The amendment, which is what we’re talking about here, maintains the coffee plant health priority, but broadens the mandate to cover all coffee diseases/pests, not only coffee berry borer.” In effect, she said, “the bill authorises Congress to fund this work, but it doesn’t allocate money to it, that is a separate process.”

Chris Manfredi, executive director of the HCA explained that “this important legislation will help Hawaii target resources toward the most immediate threats to our coffee. By also anticipating

future threats, it will enable researchers to quickly pivot as they emerge and ensure the survival of one of Hawaii’s most important crops.”

“CPHIAA will enable much-needed research at a time when coffee is under severe strain. Public research aligned with industry needs is critical to securing the future of coffee,” said Vern Long, CEO of World Coffee Research.

The USDA focuses on programs/projects that impact US farmers, so projects typically either involve Hawaii and Puerto Rico coffee farmers and/or US university researchers. However, Neuschwander shared that there is the potential for any funding of research to benefit farmers globally. “For example, a current research program funded by USDA’s FFAR program is working on sequencing the coffee rust genome. This is US public funding helping deliver a critical global public good that will advance other countries’ ability to tackle rust.”

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