Sound familiar? It may if you are standing behind a Gen Z or younger millennial consumer in a coffee shop on any given day. New research by conducted by UK-based coffee roaster Lincoln & York finds that nearly 40% of those aged 18 to 34 are drinking more coffee out of home than in previous years and are also more likely to customise their drinks to suit their tastes.

Lincoln & York surveyed more than 1,000 consumers in the UK between the ages of 18 and 65+, and almost a quarter of the respondents said they are drinking more coffee today than they were five years ago — a trend predominantly driven by younger consumers. Approximately 40% of those aged 18-34 report increased out-of-home coffee consumption. In contrast, almost 45% of consumers aged 55+ are drinking less coffee away from home than they were previously.

Lincoln & York’s research further revealed that 75% of consumers in the 18 to 34 group ‘always’ or ‘occasionally’ opt for a flavoured syrup in their coffee. The report published to mark the company’s 30^th anniversary, also finds that consumers still favour traditional sweet flavours, with caramel ranking as the top syrup choice, followed by vanilla and then hazelnut (and then chocolate and cinnamon, respectively).

The research also found that whether through flavour preference or dietary requirements, 37% of those aged 18 to 34 now choose alternative milks, such as oat, almond, soy, or coconut, in their coffee. This preference for alternative milks also extends to iced coffee options with the younger age bracket twice as likely to choose alternative milk in their iced coffee than those aged 55+.

Additionally, according to the report, iced coffee ranks as the third favourite coffee option among younger consumers, ahead of the ever-popular flat white and cappuccino. Conversely, iced coffee is one of the least popular drinks amongst those aged 55+-with less than 3% stating this was their drink of choice away from home. [Among all survey participants, the most popular coffee by type is latte, cappuccino, flat white, filter coffee and black Americano.]

Lincoln & York’s research also found several significant changes in coffee preferences over its three decades in the industry.

When the business first started roasting coffee back in 1994, a dark roasted blend of Arabica and Robusta beans was the core offering. Today, changing consumer tastes mean the business sees a much bigger demand for 100% Arabica blends, and for medium-lighter roasts, which allow the individual flavours of the coffee to stand out.

Over the past decade specifically, Lincoln & York has also seen a major uptake in demand for speciality coffee. Almost half of those surveyed in the independent research have said they would ‘always’ or ‘occasionally’ pay more to try a special blend or single origin coffee, demonstrating this demand for new and increasingly higher quality coffee options in recent years.

“During our 30 years in the industry, we’ve experienced the rise of UK coffee culture and have played a key role as menus have evolved from white or black coffee to the ultra-customisable and even experimental coffee offerings we see today,” said Ian Bryson, managing director at Lincoln & York, adding, “with younger consumers more likely to customise their drink or opt for speciality coffee, this trend is set to continue.”

To meet these evolving needs, Bryson noted that “operators need to embrace customisation and signpost the options they have available for consumers to make their drink their own. Customisation also presents an opportunity for operators to demonstrate their expertise, for example by recommending a blend or roast profile to best suit a certain milk alternative.

From how often consumers go out for coffee to the drinks they are choosing and how they are choosing to drink them, it’s evident from the research that coffee drinking habits in the UK are evolving. Per Lincoln & York’s report, “younger consumers are going out more, and opting for iced coffees, alternative milks and flavoured syrups. Whereas older consumers are choosing to stay in and are opting for hot, milky coffees. These trends may indicate the future direction for the UK coffee market, with a growing emphasis on diversity and customisation in coffee offerings.”

Download Lincoln & York’s full consumer coffee trends report here.

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Even though the cost of living continues to squeeze household budgets, this does not seem to be impacting consumers’ coffee buying habits, with the out of home (OOH) coffee market attracting an additional 1.56 million consumers from 2022 to 2023 (Kantar Out of Home | Total Coffee | Measure | 52 w/e 1 October 2023). 

UK-based private label coffee roaster, Lincoln & York, has offered five coffee predictions for the country, which include a growth in cascara drinking, expanded use of coffee extracts, increased coffee education, a strengthened focus on sustainability and purchasing ‘feel good’ coffee. 

Brewing growth in cascara 

“Recently declassified as a novel food, cascara is now more widely available as a ready to drink product and is set for expansion in 2024,” said Chris Tough, coffee buyer, Lincoln & York, who penned the predictions. “With its potential to strengthen the coffee trade economy, helping coffee farmers reduce waste and add income, this byproduct which was once thrown away is now set to take centre stage.” 

Cascara is the skin and pulp of the coffee cherry and offers notable potential to decrease the coffee industry’s carbon footprint whilst also providing new options for consumers and incremental revenue for coffee farmers. 

In terms of flavour, cascara’s unique taste lies somewhere between coffee and tea. “Whilst not as strong or rich as coffee, it’s full of fruity, slightly floral, and earthy notes whilst being packed with antioxidants and significantly less caffeine than coffee,” noted Tough, adding, “with its sustainability and health benefits, plus a novel taste profile, cascara will be one to watch in the year ahead.” 

New opportunities for coffee extracts 

Offering a combination of efficiency and speed of service, Tough said that “2024 could be the year that more widespread use of coffee extracts and coffee concentrates come to the fore.” 

He believes that whilst there are many iterations of coffee concentrates and different methods of extraction, all produce a concentrated coffee essence that can be used in cold coffees to avoid brewing and chilling an espresso for every serve. 

Cold coffees remain ‘hot’ in the UK with the iced coffee market currently valued at £178.9 million, up 37% (Lincoln & York analysis, NIQ Scantrack – MAT WE 26.08.2023), hence, more suppliers across out of home and retail are looking for quicker ways to create high quality iced coffees and RTD products, including dairy-free alternatives. Tough explained that the use of coffee extracts not only speeds up service and guarantees consistency of flavour: it also enables businesses to grow and scale at speed, meaning its potential goes way beyond just cold coffee. “This offers huge opportunities throughout the industry, and 2024 could be the year we see coffee extracts and cold coffee really take off.” 

Improving coffee education 

Coffee bean sales in the UK rose+14.3% in 2023, and this trend is set to continue in 2024 with support from the grocery sector in educating consumers around coffee buying and drinking. 

Although 52% of UK coffee drinkers continue to opt for instant coffee, Tough said there is growth in other options as consumers upgrade their at-home coffee in search of a fresher, fuller flavour (NIQ data 52 w/e 23 Sep 2023). 

To support and encourage this shift, Tough suggests retailers take inspiration from the wine aisles when it comes to their coffee assortments. “This could mean increased displays and merchandising in store to educate consumers about origins, roasts and flavour profiles, helping shoppers tailor their coffee purchases to their own tastes, as well as experiment with new flavours present in coffee.” 

He added that just as people have a preferred wine, “we predict that this will empower consumers to develop a deeper understanding of coffee that goes beyond whether they simply like the flavour or not.” 

A renewed focus on sustainability 

Lincoln & York expects consumers will become even more conscious of the carbon footprint of their coffee in 2024, with 63% of consumers actively looking for sustainably sourced coffee options (Lincoln & York research undertaken by Opinium Research. Sample size 2,000 UK adults. Fieldwork dates 27th – 29th September 2022). 

Sustainable sourcing has never been more important, and new EU legislation taking effect at the end of this year is designed to tackle this problem. Beginning in December, coffee produced from land which has been subject to deforestation in the last three years will not be accepted onto the European market, forcing coffee companies to prioritise the sustainable sourcing of their produce. 

A future of feel good coffee 

Lincoln & York believes that whether it’s added health benefits through functional coffees or a philanthropic pick me up by supporting cause-led brands, consumers will continue to look for coffee that offers more than a great taste and a caffeine kick in 2024. 

Functional coffees, created by blending coffee with ingredients such as botanicals and proteins for added health and wellbeing benefits, achieved significant growth in 2023. “With options such as antioxidant-rich turmeric lattes and CBD coffees also attracting consumer attention, it will be interesting to see if this growth continues or if we’re experiencing a classic case of fashion over function,” said Tough. 

However, he noted that for a different kind of feel good, “‘coffee with a cause’ brands will continue to thrive, with more cause-led brands expected to emerge in 2024.” As well as contributing towards worthy causes, such as supporting veterans struggling with life outside of service or providing homeless people with barista training and job opportunities, planting trees, supporting female coffee farmers, tying your brand with a charitable focus is a smart and worthwhile way to gain customer loyalty — particularly with the ever-important and ever-growing, younger consumer base. 

• Vanessa L Facenda, editor, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.
  Keep in touch via email: vanessa@bellpublishing.com Twitter: @TCTradeJournal or LinkedIn: Tea & Coffee Trade Journal

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Webster’s extensive knowledge of the finance sector will ensure Lincoln & York continues its growth trajectory as they expand further into international markets.

Before joining Lincoln & York, Webster held the role of managing director at JZ Flowers International, as well as numerous executive roles across the FMCG sector. With over 10 years of board level experience, Webster is ideally placed to guide Lincoln & York on its growth.

Webster said: “I’m very excited to join a business that has shaped the coffee industry in such a big way and yet has heritage embedded at its core. My main goal is to support James and the wider team in achieving our next phase of growth through cementing our roots in the UK and expanding into further markets internationally.”

James Sweeting, managing director of Lincoln & York said: “We are delighted to have Simon on board as we enter a very exciting stage in our journey. His wealth of experience, alongside a focus on the commercial side will be a vital asset for the business as we continue on the journey to become the coffee roaster of choice in the UK and EU.”

Webster’s appointment comes at a time of profound change for the business, driven by its fruitful journey to date since inception 25 years ago. Lincoln & York achieved revenues of £34.55m in 2018 and is on course to double this to £60m by 2023.

International sales are also booming leading to Lincoln & York ranking first in the Sunday Times International Track 200 in 2018. It is now continuing to drive overseas sales which will account for 50% of the growth in the coming years.For more information, visit http://lincolnandyork.com/

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