The prize was awarded by an independent international jury of nine experts who chose the best among the winners of the 9 single-origins that make up the recipe of the unique illy blend: Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua and Rwanda.

The SMS Cluster ECOM of Nicaragua won the Coffee Lovers’ Choice award, voted for by consumers around the world who in the weeks leading up to the event blindly tasted the same samples in illy coffees.

“For the second year in a row, a Brazilian company that adopts regenerative practices has given us the best coffee in the world. In the Fazenda Serra do Boné, the health of the soil, biodiversity, and water sources are preserved thanks to the use of organic fertilizers, biological control and the reuse of processing by-products,” said Andrea Illy, chairman of illycaffè. “We are once again noticing important signs that confirm how regenerative agriculture is the right path towards a more resilient production capable of guaranteeing productivity and superior quality, of which coffee is the forerunner with the highest growth rates.”

The panel of judges who selected the Best of the Best included Massimo Bottura, chef patron of Osteria Francescana and founder of Food for Soul; Viki Geunes, chef-owner of three-Michelin-starred Zilte in Antwerp; Felipe Rodriguez, head chef at São Paulo’s Rosewood Complex; Vanúsia Nogueira, executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO); Q Grader professional tasters Felipe Isaza and Dessalegn Oljirra Gemeda; journalists Vanessa Zocchetti (Madame Figaro), Sebastian Späth (Falstaff), and Josh Condon (Robb Report).

The jury described Fazenda Serra do Boné’s award-winning coffee as creamy, sweet, and full-bodied, with an elegant balance of fresh fruit aromas, caramel undertones, subtle hints of brown sugar, and a persistent chocolate finish with floral notes of jasmine – a beautifully complex coffee that perfectly embodies its Brazilian origin.

This year’s event attracted a diverse group of public figures, including Francis Ford Coppola, Marina Abramović, Pat Cleveland, Alex Riviere, Chiara Maci, Candela Pelizza, Tamu McPherson, Sveva Alviti, Christoph Leitner, Simon e Marina Ksandr, Nick Lowry, Maddy Devita, Justine Martilotti, and Brittany Leigh Ball. The celebration of coffee excellence took place at a gala dinner at Peak in Hudson Yards, hosted by Spanish TV journalist Olivia Frejus Lloyd.

Beyond awards, the Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award fosters global discussions on coffee sustainability. The day began at the United Nations headquarters in New York where representatives from across the coffee supply chain gathered for a roundtable discussion titled “Global Coffee Alliance: Mobilizing a Public-Private Fund to Fight Climate Change.” The panel, moderated by Clare Reichenbach, CEO of the James Beard Foundation, featured chairman Andrea Illy, Italian Ambassador to the UN, Maurizio Massari; executive director of the ICO, Vanúsia Nogueira; chef and UNEP Goodwill Ambassador, Massimo Bottura; UNIDO project manager, Andrea De Marco; senior director of sustainable coffee at Conservation International, Raina Lang; and UNEP director for the New York office, Jamil Ahmad; who explored initiatives to advance sustainable coffee production in the face of climate challenges.

The panel emphasised the urgent need to transition coffee cultivation to a regenerative model to enhance resilience, improve farmer livelihoods, and reduce environmental impact. A major focus was on establishing a USD $10 billion public-private fund over the next decade, which will target smallholder coffee farmers in tropical regions heavily impacted by climate change.

“Since Expo 2015, we have worked tirelessly to build a framework to protect coffee for generations to come,” said Andrea Illy. “Regenerative agriculture has shown it can produce high yields and quality while restoring natural resources. We must act quickly to scale these solutions globally through an international fund. It is essential we implement regenerative solutions now, as we see they work and deliver positive outcomes.”

Throughout the discussion, panelists underscored the importance of uniting stakeholders from governments, international organisations, and the private sector to bring impactful, lasting change to coffee-growing communities. Reichenbach highlighted that consumer awareness and participation are key drivers in the industry’s sustainability journey.

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The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 0.8% and 0.6%, reaching 277.10 and 276.82 US cents/lb, respectively, in October 2024. The Brazilian Naturals also depreciated, decreasing by 0.5% to 255.85 US cents/lb in October 2024. The Robustas contracted 8.3% to 221.93 US cents/lb. The New York and London ICE markets were drivers of the contraction, decreasing by 1.3% and 8.2% and reaching 250.62 and 207.11 US cents/lb, respectively.

On 2 October, a press release was published saying that the European Commission “strengthens support for EU Deforestation Regulation implementation and proposes extra 12 months of phasing-in time, responding to calls by global partners.” The news had a bearish impact on the I-CIP, with a market reaction driving the price to 245.29 US cents/lb by 7 October from 263.96 US cents/lb on 1 October. On 16 October, the Council agreed on its position on the targeted amendment of the EU Deforestation Regulation, postponing its date of application by 12 months. As a result, if agreed by the European Parliament, the obligations stemming from this regulation will be binding from 30 December 2025 for large operators and traders and from 30 June 2026 for micro- and small enterprises. The news of the agreement by the Council appears to have further added to the downward momentum of the I-CIP, which steadily fell throughout the remainder of the month, closing October at 242.25 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Real was an additional downward factor on the I-CIP, which reached a 3.5 year low against the dollar at 5.81 BRL to 1 USD on 31 October.

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential shrank from 0.75 to 0.28 US cents/lb between September and October 2024. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential contracted by 3.5% to 21.25 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential expanded by 48.3% from September to October 2024, averaging 55.17 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds– Brazilian Naturals and Other Milds–Robustas differentials moved by -1.5% and 50.6% to 20.97 and 54.89 US cents/lb, respectively. The Brazilian Naturals–Robustas differential grew by 123.6%, averaging 33.92 US cents/lb in October 2024.

The arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York futures markets, expanded 54.2% to 43.50 US cents/lb in October 2024, marking its highest point in four months. This trend reversal could signal how the market is reacting to longer term higher Robusta prices, where the downward adjustment of the Robustas seems to be stronger in relation to the Arabicas, reflecting that the Robustas may have been overvalued. Furthermore, in September 2024, the Robustas grew month-on-month at a much faster rate than the Arabicas – 12.8% versus 6.2% – thereby permitting a more aggressive downward adjustment.

The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP expanded by 0.5 percentage points, averaging 11.0% in October 2024. The Colombian Milds’ volatility increased by 0.6 percentage points. The Other Milds’ volatility grew by 0.4 percentage points to 11.4% while the Brazilian Naturals followed the same uptrend, gaining 0.7 percentage points and averaging 12.1% in October 2024. The Robustas’ volatility contracted to 11.2% for the month of October, a 0.1 percentage point decrease. Lastly, New York’s volatility increased by 0.5 percentage points to 12.7% while the London futures market’s volatility also increased by 1.0 percentage points to 13.6%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in September 2024 totalled 9.69 million bags, as compared with 7.74 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 25.2%. For coffee year 2023/24, exports of green beans were up 11.8% to 123.75 million bags from 110.72 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, an absolute increase of 13.02 million bags. This is the biggest annual increase on record, surpassing the previous highest of 9.27 million bags in coffee year 1995/96. The rate and the volume of increase in coffee year 2023/24 are largely a reflection of the base effect of two consecutive years of downturn (of 1.1% and 5.6%), with the world green bean exports falling from 118.66 million bags in coffee year 2020/21 to 110.72 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. As such, the double-digit increase in coffee year 2023/24 represents a recovery, and not necessarily an expansion, of the long-term trend. Contextualizing, world exports of green beans have been increasing at an average of 2.36 million bags every coffee year between coffee years 2010/11 and 2020/21, while there was an increase of only 1.69 million bags annually between coffee years 2020/21 and 2023/24. The actual exports level is below the potential level of 125.73 million bags.

Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 22.9% in September 2024 to 1.92 million bags from 1.56 million bags in the same period last year. For coffee year 2023/24, exports of the Other Milds were up 4.7% to 23.05 million bags from 22.02 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in September 2024, jumping by 37.3% to 3.68 million bags. For coffee year 2023/24, exports of the Brazilian Naturals were up 22.6% to 41.89 million bags from 34.16 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 22.3% to 0.99 million bags in September 2024 from 0.81 million bags in September 2023. For coffee year 2023/24, exports of the Colombian Milds were up 14.3% to 12.22 million bags from 10.69 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. For coffee year 2023/24, total green beans exports of Arabicas were up 15.47% to 77.17 million bags from 66.68 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

Overall, for the Arabicas, the double-digit growth in coffee year 2023/24 should, like the total green bean exports, be viewed as recovery back onto the long-term trend. Like the total exports, exports of the Arabicas in coffee year 2023/24 followed two consecutive years of negative growth (3.1% and 10.4%) before recording the biggest absolute annual increase on record at 10.29 million bags. Contextualizing, exports of the Arabicas have been increasing at an average of 1.45 million bags every year between coffee years 2010/11 and 2020/21. The potential level of exports is 81.38 million bags.

Green bean exports of the Robustas were up 15.4% to 3.1 million bags in September 2024 from 3.59 million bags in September 2023. For coffee year 2023/24, exports of the Robustas were up 6.2% to 46.58 million bags from 43.84 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. It is the biggest annual exports on record and was largely driven by Brazil, which exported 9.02 million bags as compared with 2.84 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The growth in Brazil’s exports more than compensated the large drop in exports from Vietnam, which shipped 23.19 million bags in coffee year 2023/24 as compared with 26.13 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The origin, the world’s largest producer and exporter of Robustas, has been struggling with domestic supplies, with production falling below the potential levels due to adverse weather conditions.

For coffee year 2023/24, the Arabicas’ share of total green bean exports increased to 62.4% as compared with 60.4% in coffee year 2022/23.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In September 2024, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 30.8% to 6.2 million bags. For coffee year 2023/24, exports of the region were up 30.7% to 66.13 million bags from 50.59 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The region’s two largest producers and exporters, Brazil and Colombia, saw their total exports jump by 34.3% and 13.7%, respectively, to 49.03 million bags and 11.91 million bags. For Brazil, these are the largest exports on record. Part of the impetus for Brazil’s growth was the gap in the market created by Vietnam in the Robustas market. Although it is not widely acknowledged, Brazil is the secondlargest Robustas producer in the world, accounting for 32.0% of global supply in coffee year 2022/23.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 14.3% to 1.37 million bags in September 2024 from 1.2 million bags in September 2023. For coffee year 2023/24, exports from the region were up 17.3% to 16.02 million bags from 13.66 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. Ethiopia was the main driver of the region’s double-digits growth, with the origin’s exports up 63.5% to 5.59 million bags in coffee year 2023/24 as compared with 3.42 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. These are the largest exports on record for the origin, and it is also the first time the 5.0 million bags ceiling has been breached. The underlying reason for Ethiopia’s double-digit growth was the resolution of internal contract disputes, which had led to export shipments being delayed in coffee year 2022/23. Once again, contextualization is necessary when analysing the exports of Ethiopia: exports fell in coffee year 2022/23 by 15.0% to 3.42 million bags from 4.02 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, the lowest level since 3.09 million bags in coffee year 2015/16. As a result, the 5.59 million bags should be viewed as a recovery.

In September 2024, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were up 18.1% to 0.9 million bags as compared with 0.76 million bags in September 2023. For coffee year 2023/24, exports of the region were down 4.1% to 14.51 million bags from 15.13 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The downturn was primarily driven by Honduras and Nicaragua, which suffered from decreases of 12.1% and 16.5%, respectively. The former’s exports were hampered by its off-years in the biennial production cycle, while the latter’s exports were negatively affected by the bankruptcy of Mercon Coffee Group in December 2023, a coffee trader and the owner of CISA Exportadora, a company responsible for more than half of Nicaragua’s coffee exports. Exports from Guatemala and Mexico were the two main mitigating positive factors of the region, increasing by 8.6% and 8.9% to 3.28 million bags and 2.97 million bags, respectively.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 19.6% to 2.29 million bags in September 2024 as compared with 1.91 million bags in September 2023. For coffee year 2023/24, exports of the region were down 6.7% to 40.62 million bags from 43.54 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. Vietnam, the largest producer and exporter in Asia & Oceania, was the main driving force behind the region’s annual downturn, with its exports decreasing by 11.7% to 24.96 million bags. This is the lowest exports level since 22.03 million bags in coffee year 2014/15. Tightness in domestic supply due to lower production from adverse weather conditions and loss of productive areas to other cash crops, and depletion of local stocks, was the main reason for the double-digit downturn. India was a positive mitigating factor within the region, recording a 10.0% increase in its exports to 6.98 million bags in coffee year 2023/24 as compared with 6.34 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 24.3% in September 2024 to 1.02 million bags from 0.82 million bags in September 2023. For coffee year 2023/24, soluble coffee exports were up 11.6% to 12.82 million bags from 11.48 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 9.3% in September 2024, the same for the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.37 million bags in September 2024 and 3.89 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

Exports of roasted beans were down 9.2% in September 2024 to 54,544 bags, as compared with 60,040 bags in September 2023. For coffee year 2023/24, roasted coffee exports were down 0.5% to 0.71 million bags from 0.713 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

For the full report, visit icocoffee.org.

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Producers from nine countries – Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua, and Rwanda – have earned spots in the final, with three producers representing each country. The international jury will gather in New York on 12 November to taste and evaluate the coffees, which were selected by illycaffè’s quality laboratories based on rigorous quality and sustainability criteria throughout the 2023/2024 harvest.

The Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award 2024 jury includes Massimo Bottura, chef patron of Osteria Francescana and Casa Maria Luigia and founder of Food for Soul, a non-profit organization combatting food waste and social isolation. In recognition of his humanitarian and environmental efforts, Bottura was appointed goodwill ambassador for the United Nations Environment Programme in 2020 and most recently as SDG Advocate. In 2020 Osteria Francescana was awarded the prestigious Michelin Green Star for sustainability; Viki Geunes, chef and owner of restaurant Zilte in Antwerp, holder of three Michelin stars, known for his creative and visually stunning dishes; Felipe Rodrigues, head chef of the Rosewood Complex in São Paulo and one of South America’s leading chefs, with experience working under top European and Peruvian chefs.

Three professional tasters, Vanúsia Nogueira, executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and daughter of coffee producer, with extensive experience in quality coffee markets; Felipe Isaza, Arabica Q Grader and member of the Board of Directors of the Coffee Quality Institute, who has served as an international juror at numerous tastings; Dessalegn Oljirra Gemeda, Ethiopian coffee consultant and Q Grader, with a background working for the Ethiopian Coffee & Tea Authority, Ethiopian Coffee Exchange, and Oxfam.

And three expert journalists: Vanessa Zocchetti, editor-in-chief of the lifestyle section of Madame Figaro, who writes on gastronomy and design, Sebastian Späth, editor-in-chief of Germany´s leading food and lifestyle magazine Falstaff, with a great expertise in art, cuisine, fashion, and design, and Josh Condon, editor-in-chief of Robb Report, a leading luxury magazine.

This multidisciplinary jury combines culinary, technical and journalistic expertise to assess the complex nuances of the world’s finest coffees and choose the ‘Best of the Best.’

In addition, consumers will have the chance to participate by tasting the 9 finalist coffees and voting for their favourite in a series of blind tastings held at illy flagship stores worldwide. The coffee with the most votes will receive the ‘Coffee Lovers’ Choice’ award.

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Throughout the year, illycaffè’s quality laboratories analysed samples from the 2023/2024 harvest, selecting the best batches and producers based on both qualitative and sustainability criteria.

The finalists for this edition come from Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua, and Rwanda.

“Sustainable quality is the result of a process that begins in the coffee plantations and requires constant innovation, research, and training. It means producing high-quality coffee with respect for the environment, biodiversity, human rights, and social well-being. The Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award has become an annual appointment with our best producers worldwide, with whom we have worked hand in hand for decades to ensure a prosperous future for people and the planet,” commented Andrea Illy, chairman of illycaffè.

The 27 finalists for the Ernesto Illy International Award 2024, listed alphabetically by country, are:

Brazil:

• Fazenda São João – Décio Bruxel e Outros
• Fazenda Serra do Boné – Matheus Lopes Sanglard
• Fazenda Vila Oscarlina – Flávio da Costa Figueredo

Costa Rica

• Coopelibertad R.L.
• CoopeSabalito R.L.
• Finca San Carlos de Marespi S.A.

El Salvador

• Finca Agua Caliente – J.J. Borja Nathan S.A.
• Finca Bolívar – Matorral de S.A. de C.V.
• Finca San Rafael – Comercial Larin S.A. DE C.V.

Ethiopia

• Darimo Washing Station Plc – Asma International Business Pvt Ltd
• Gera Tracon Washing Station Plc – Tracon Trading P.L.C.
• Jemila Amdela Washing Station Plc – Legesse Sherefa Pvt Ltd Co.

Guatemala

• Finca Danilandia – Luis Arimany Monzón
• Finca Santa Leonarda – Plantaciones Agropecuarias S.A.
• Pequeños Productores Santa Cruz Naranjo

Honduras

• Finca Diego Paz – Diego Paz Paz
• Finca Don Miguel – Miguel Angel Pérez Guevara
• Finca El Carmen – Jorge Aníbal Peña Maldonado

India

• Coovercolly Estate – Tata Consumer Products Ltd.
• Kajjehally Estate – S. Vasudevan
• Margolly Estate – Tata Consumer Products Ltd.

Nicaragua

• Finca Santa Ana – Aida Lila Zeledón Palacios
• Grupo productores – Olam Nicaragua
• SMS Cluster ECOM Nicaragua

Rwanda

• Karenge Coffee Washing Station
• Kibirizi Coffee Washing Station
• Rwinyoni Coffee Washing Station

The ranking of each of the nine finalist countries will be announced on 12 November at the United Nations in New York during an event where coffee producers will learn who has won the Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award 2024.

The previous edition of the Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award was won for the first time by Brazil, with the São Mateus Agropecuaria farm. This achievement is particularly significant as the coffee was produced using regenerative agricultural practices, which benefit the environment and health while producing exceptionally high-quality coffee.

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Over the course of the six auctions, 21,661 bids were placed from buyers for the 192 winning lots. When the three minute clock struck zero at the end of the final auction, over 2.6 million dollars had been raised. Out of the 706 registered bidders 128 were successful placing the highest bid to own a winning lot.

Costa Rica garnered the highest gross auction amount of USD $655,786, almost $271,000 more than in 2023, although every country improved their totals from 2023. Honduras took home the top price of $136.50lb for its first place coffee. Together the 192 total lots averaged $21.54lb. 2024 was the first year that coffees were divided by processing technique. Natural, washed and experimentally processed coffees were all represented in the winning lots having been separated during the competition.

The full programme began in early Spring in Nicaragua with the call for farmer entries and it ended on Tuesday 13th July with Mexico holding its final very busy auction. Each country held a full 3-week competition to determine which coffees would score high enough to be awarded a CoE and sold online to the highest bidder. Coffees receiving a CoE award undergo intense scrutiny from both a national jury and an international jury during the competition process. The lots being auctioned scored between the minimum required score of 87 to a high of 93.62.  A total of 172 professional cuppers from 24 countries scored the winners through the multiple phases of the competition process. A total of 39 lots scored over 90 points, 31 of the winning farms are owned by women and 37 are owned by farmers experiencing their first Cup of Excellence competition.

Sample sets of the winners were sent out to roasters wanting to score the coffees again at their place of business. Almost 500 complete sets of winning lots were sent to companies in North America, the Middle East, Europe and Asia. Each lot was also processed to meticulous standards and vacuum packed before the auctions occurred.

Honduras celebrated its 20th anniversary this year. Guatemala held its first CoE in 2001, Nicaragua in 2002, El Salvador in 2003, Costa Rica in 2007 and Mexico in 2012. Identification of farmers, infrastructure development, technical training and quality improvement are often the result of the Cup of Excellence programme.

For more information contact support@cupofexcellence.org

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“It’s an amazing result given the concern about whether a new generation would want to take over family farms or be willing to embrace the challenges that come with producing extraordinary coffee. These young farmers, much like the new generation of coffee roasters, are implementing innovative methods and a deep passion for coffee as a career,” said Erwin Mierisch, executive director of The Alliance for Coffee Excellence and Cup of Excellence.  “We are so impressed with their creativity and their efforts,” he continued.

Seven of the thirty winners are women, who through persistence walked on stage to accept their awards. Sara Corrales represents the second generation of coffee growers and is also a member of the Nicaragua chapter of the International Women’s Coffee Alliance.

At the awards ceremony, Samuel Zavala explained how he took over his family farm in 2018 following the death of his father. “When my father died in an accident and I took over the farm I had been working on with him learning about farming, but it was really hard. Specialty coffee was a real challenge since much of the farm was commercial coffees sold to exporters. I felt a lot of fear about whether I could sell this coffee at a sustainable price. Six years later, I am very happy with how my work has been rewarded. This competition is really important for opening doors. Even my sons are excited to stay in coffee and learn about either the farm or about cupping.”

 As with other younger farmers Octavio Peralta Jr. also utilised his academic knowledge to experiment with cutting-edge coffee fermentation and won an award for the family. “Each farmer always has a unique story and enters with distinctive coffees,” explained Kathia Lopez, auction manager for The Alliance For Coffee Excellence, “Winning farmers won with Parainema, Pacamara, Maragogype, and the coveted Geisha varieties,” she continued.

The upcoming auction on 20 June is crucial. Specialty buyers that desire sustainable high-quality coffees should participate and bid on these exceptional coffees, says the Alliance. The auction is a direct way to offer these hardworking farmers the financial support needed to continue producing high-quality coffees.

For more information about the auction and how you can participate, visit allianceforcoffeeexcellence.org.

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The coffee industry is well known for its strong collaborative community, where individuals gather to discuss opportunities and challenges, share successes, and brainstorm solutions. The concept of collaborative roasting takes this a step further, with roasters joining together to share both space and equipment. The creation of these spaces has helped to make coffee more accessible, while also becoming incubators for advancements in the industry, providing a space to explore new technology and equipment as the costs are shared amongst multiple members.

The Canadian Roasting Society (Montréal, Canada) has adopted the collaborative roasting model to propel the coffee industry forward in its local region. Established in 2018, partners Andrew Kyres and Scott Rao wanted to advance the coffee industry in their local community, including providing space and equipment. Today, they have created a modern roasting facility with a 5,000 square foot warehouse and the ability to store 75,000 pounds of coffee.

The space is open for individuals or companies to use their resources, including a custom-built Probat roasting machine, weighing, filling and sealing machines, reverse osmosis filtration systems, storage space for green coffee, coffee tasting and brew laboratory and access to qualified personnel and on-site data analysis. There is a pre-established fee, avoiding the high start-up costs that individuals in the industry.

Breaking down barriers

The standard process for collaborative roasting involves a founder making a significant capital investment and then sharing their resources with others in the coffee community for a pre-set fee.
Leonardo Azeredo, founder of Co-Roasting, based in France, was intrigued by the concept of this model but pondered if it could be done differently; specifically, if instead of renting a space and the equipment for roasters to use, there was equipment in his community that was currently not being maximised. In 2018, while Azeredo was completing his executive MBA, he began researching if this type of model would be possible. His research, which involved interviewing over 100 roasters in France, revealed that more than 80 percent said that they used their equipment only two days a week.

The collaborative roasting model proposed by Co-Roasting was centered around maximising the existing resources by developing a digital platform that could pair individuals seeking a roaster with owners of roasters that were not used to their total capacity. “If they want to be a host, it’s not only a matter of having equipment that is not being used to its full capacity, but also about having a willingness to share knowledge to help develop the competence of someone looking to get into the field,” said Azeredo. Specifically, he is seeking members who are aligned with the Co-Roasting community’s core values of integrity, respect, sharing, and empathy and are willing to share their equipment and become part of an entrepreneurship incubator.

Checking coffee beans during roasting at Cafés Muda. Images credit: Co-Roasting

“I strongly believe that people need to have accountability for their decisions, and if someone is looking to quickly start their business, collaborative roasting is a good way to start,” said Azeredo. “We can do things differently and continue to innovate with a collective intelligence; our vision is to create a full value chain of collaboration.”

This includes extending the collaborative model beyond the individuals who use the equipment and the hosts of the equipment to other key players in the industry, including equipment suppliers, software manufacturers, and producers. “Our vision is to create this kind of ecosystem, to help accelerate the process of being able to provide and give access to good coffee to the consumer.” Currently, Co-Roasting has close to 50 members, including users, hosts, producers, and equipment manufacturers, in France, Belgium and Brazil, and it plans to expand into other regions.

Building bridges

Could producer ownership be a new form of collaboration? On 22 February 2024, Paso Paso opened its doors, presenting the coffee community with a new version of collaboration involving producer investment. Bram De Hoog, the visionary of this concept, actively sought out producers from across the globe to develop a company centered around producers coming together to co-own a roastery and, in turn, empower producers to represent themselves in the European market.

“Each business has its complications, challenges, and the investments that it needs to succeed, but I could see some of our clients from the importer side opening up a coffee shop and expanding their roasting business from purchasing ten bags to 100 bags over the course of only a few years,” said De Hoog. “I just didn’t see the same potential for growth on the coffee producer side.” All participants, which currently includes five producers and De Hoog, are registered shareholders of the company based in Germany and are actively involved in making decisions and profit-sharing.

“I wanted to be very egalitarian and very straightforward – basically, if you invest money in the roastery, you will get shares in it, there’s no further complication to it,” said De Hoog. The roastery, which is based in Hannover, Germany, is currently being operated by De Hoog, while the producers, who reside in their respective countries, are involved in all company decisions, which includes committing to monthly meetings to discuss strategy and financing.

The producers, who are currently located in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia and Nicaragua, each have unique limitations that they face within the coffee industry but jointly shared that they were seeking a solution that would actively make a difference in their lives. Part of the motivation for launching Paso Paso was to prove to the industry that the existing model can be changed; specifically, the industry should actively seek ways to increase producer involvement across the entire coffee chain.

De Hoog, who has extensive experience as a green coffee buyer, had previously established positive relationships with each producer involved in the project. He hand-picked the participating producers, who stood out for their dedication, passion, and open-mindedness to challenge the status quo.

“I was inspired by Bram because it really is a unique business model. It is very different from what we see out there and the normal way of selling coffee. We’re feeling like pioneers,” said Diego Baraona, coffee producer at Los Pirineos, El Salvador. “It’s kind of like a redistribution of power, giving a bit more to the producers and essentially starting to change the industry.”

The producers shared that one of the unexpected benefits of creating the company has been gaining insights from the different perspectives of each investor and then using these insights to make decisions about the company. “We are combining our knowledge in our specific fields and putting a team together that is going to make sure that this project will [move] forward,” said Daniela Vega, producer of Roble Negro, Costa Rica. “The business model is so different itself, [which makes it] attractive, [so] you want to participate and give your ideas to help the company grow because it’s your company as well.” Vega explained that she has felt a shift in the coffee industry as a whole as more individuals recognise the value producers provide to the industry and the necessity for increased economic acknowledgement.

Sorting coffee at Bette Buna farm in Ethiopia. Image credit: Hester Westerveld

The journey from concept to company launch has been a complex path. However, the producers have learned a lot about the industry and the logistics that come into play when developing a company with multiple owners from across the globe. “We’re showing already that you can make the impossible possible, and my only hope for the future is that this team will become even tighter,” said Hester Syoum Westerveld, coffee producer at Bette Buna in Ethiopia. “People talk about doing things differently and taking action, but we are actually just doing it and showing that it is possible. It has not been an easy process to start.”

Signing the paperwork, for example, required using embassies and notaries in respective countries or flying to Germany to complete all the documentation. De Hoog shared that he went to 13 separate banks before finding one that would agree to sign on with the company. However, all members persevered in transforming the company from concept to reality. They are now looking forward to a future where there are opportunities for producers to play a more active role in the industry.

“We’re able to break that supply chain and set it up differently. Our goal is to create stability for our producers and develop an integrated loop between what we are producing, what we are roasting, and what we are selling,” said De Hoog. [We] hope to grow the company so that, say, in five years from now, the roastery is buying all of the coffee from a producer and expanding the opportunity to others.”

The continued adoption of the collaborative roasting model will challenge the industry to break down traditional boundaries and continually reinvent how the market can share a good cup of coffee. Coffee has always been a collaborative industry, with players coming together to develop solutions that will help ensure that the industry is sustainable. The model of collaborative roasting is another piece of the puzzle providing current and future players with tools and resources to propel the industry forward.

• Anne-Marie Hardie is a freelance writer, professor and speaker based in Barrie, Ontario. She may be reached at: annemariehardie1@gmail.com.

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The award, named after the visionary leader of illycaffè and the son of the company’s founder, celebrates the work that the Trieste, Italy-based company has been doing every day for the last 30 years, side-by-side with coffee farmers, to offer the best possible sustainable coffee. The award was presented to the winner by illycaffè chairman Andrea Illy during an event held at the New York Public Library in New York.

EIICA celebrates the finest Arabica coffees sourced from all over the world. This event aims to recognize growers for the quality coffee they tirelessly work to produce. The award was assigned by an independent panel of nine experts who examined the best batches from the 2022-2023 harvest through a blind tasting of nine coffees from the nine finalist countries: Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua, and Rwanda. Prior to being evaluated by the panel, each batch of coffee was analysed by illycaffè’s quality control labs and rated in terms of richness and aromatic complexity, the elegance and balance of its flavour and intensity of its aroma.

Guatemala’s Finca Danilandia di Luis Arimany Mondonico won the Coffee Lovers’ Choice Award, assigned by a panel of consumers who, in the weeks prior to the event, carried out blind taste tests of the coffee samples in illy cafés in Trieste, Milan, Paris, London, Sao Paolo and New York and ranked their preferences.

“The absolute victory of the Brazilian coffee coming from regenerative agriculture – chosen blindly among the nine best coffees in the world – fills me with joy. Indeed, the history of the Ernesto Illy Award began in Brazil in 1991 and this confirms that the rewards received, by illycaffè for having transformed Brazil from a leader in quantity to a leader in quality are well-deserved,” said Andrea Illy. “After more than 25 years of neverending and tireless work by our team of agronomists and the University of Coffee, the leap has finally happened thanks to regenerative agriculture, which we decided to develop in 2018 for the benefits it brings to the environment and everyone’s health.”

The panel that voted for the Best of the Best award included Guatemala’s professional taster Silvia Escobar; the President of Federação dos Cafeicultores do Cerrado, Brasilian Glaucio De Castro; the director of the CoffeeLab quality laboratory, Indian Sunalini Narayan Menon; chef Ricard Camarena, who has been awarded two Michelin stars and a green star for his dedication to sustainability at his Ricard Camarena Restaurant in Valencia; American chefs Carrie and Rupert Blease, who manage the Michelin-starred Lord Stanley restaurant in San Francisco; Andrea Aprea, a Michelin-starred chef with a restaurant bearing his name in Milan; French writer and journalist Adelaide de Clermont-Tonnere, editor-in-chief of Point de Vue magazine; Inga Griese, founder and editor-in-chief of ICON, the style supplement of the German newspaper Welt Am Sonntag; Angelina Villa Clarke, a journalist contributing to prestigious English-language publications including Forbes.

Commenting on the winning coffee, the jury said, “This year’s Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award winner is a rounded, wholesome, and fully bodied cup, with rich yet mellow flavors of a balance of chocolate, caramel, brown sugar, and toasted almonds on a bed of refined brightness, with a lingering finish of mild, gentle, yet harmonious sweetness. It truly represents the finest taste characteristics of its origin.”

Martha Stewart, Matilda De Angelis, Pat Cleveland, Coco Rocha, Candela Pelizza, Tamu Mc Pherson, Carlo Sestini, Simon and Marina Ksandr, Nick Lowry, Tesa Pesic are some of the celebrities who attended the gala event at the New York Public Library, hosted by chef and TV star Marcus Samuelsson, to celebrate the best coffee producers who work behind the unique illy blend.

The Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award is also an unmissable networking opportunity for all those involved in the coffee industry, from producers to exporters, from traders to institutional representatives. In the morning they all met at the United Nations Headquarters to attend a panel discussion on protecting the future of coffee. Alongside illycaffè chairman Andrea Illy, speakers included Vanusia Nogueira, executive director, International Coffee Organization; Jeffrey Sachs, professor of economy at Columbia University and co-chair at the Regenerative Society Foundation; Oscar Schaps, president of the Latin American division of Stone X Financial Inc; and Glaucio de Castro, president of the Federação dos Cafeicultores do Cerrado Mineiro. (For a full recap of the event at the UN, see the Editor’s Blog: “The time is now” to invest in regenerative agriculture (teaandcoffee.net).

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 153.13 US cents/lb in September, posting a median value of 152.74 US cents/lb and fluctuating between 147.86 and 160.17 US cents/lb.

The Robustas remained at a near-record high in September, staying firmly above the 120.00 US cents/lb mark. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 1.4% and 1.7%, to 184.98 and 183.52 US cents/lb, respectively, in September 2023. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas both contracted by 0.3% and 0.6%, reaching an average of 154.19 and 123.89 US cents/lb, respectively. ICE’s New York market fell by 1.9%, whilst the London Futures market shrank by 2.0%, to 153.55 and 109.14 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential grew 79.1% to 1.46 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 6.4% to 30.79 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential also contracted 2.9% from August to September 2023, averaging 61.09 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals and the Other Milds-Robustas both contracted 8.6 and 4.0%, reaching 29.33 and 59.63 US cents/lb, respectively. However, the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials expanded 0.9%, averaging 30.30 US cents/lb in September 2023.

In September 2023, the Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential fluctuated between positive and negative.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, narrowed by 1.8% to 44.41 US cents/lb in September 2023. This marks the lowest point since October 2019, when arbitrage sat at 44.07 US cents/lb.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP followed a consistent downtrend, reaching 6.3%, a 0.7 percentage point decrease between August and September 2023. The Robustas presented the strongest volatility decrease, with a 1.3 percentage point drop, averaging 7.4% for the month of September. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also contracted to 6.5% and 6.8%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 8.1% from August to September 2023, whilst the London futures market’s volatility also decreased by 2.1 to 7.3%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the same direction as London, retracting by 0.9 percentage points and reaching 7.7% for New York.

The New York and London certified stocks moved in opposite directions, where London grew 25.7% to 0.73 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.49 million 60-kg bags, a 13.8% decrease.

The absence of market participants, as evidenced by the falling exports (see Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans), continued to prevail over the I-CIP, explaining the overarching trajectory of the I-CIP in September. However, currency movements, market sentiments, dwindling supplies, weather and the fundamentals all played their part in the coffee price movements in September, which saw the I-CIP rally, before falling once again due to foreign exchange movements.

From 22 August to 19 September 2023, the I-CIP recovered, increasing from a low of 148.79 to 160.17 US Cents/lb, ie, an increase of 7.6%. This came on the back of reports of heavy rain in Brazil and a continued fall in the certified stocks held at the New York ICE warehouses. Somar Meteorologia, a Brazilian meteorology company, reported on 5 September that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, the country’s largest coffee producing region, received 22.8 mm of rain in the past week, or 308% of the historical average, leading to speculation regarding a delay in the completion of Brazil’s coffee harvest. Meanwhile, ICE’s Arabica inventories fell to a low of 0.49 million bags in September. The impact of these positive factors was more profound on the prices of the Arabicas, particularly the Brazilian Naturals which rallied by 5.3% and 81.%, respectively.

Nevertheless, this rally was halted and reversed by the sharp weakening of the real against the US dollar. From 19 to 29 September the real depreciated by 3.2%, from 4.87 to 5.03, while the I-CIP fell by 7.1% over the same period. Once again, the negative impact was felt relatively more by the Arabicas (-8.1%) and particularly the Brazilian Naturals (-9.3%) as compared with Robustas (-5.9%). The price of the Robustas fell at a relatively slower rate due to Vietnam’s current dwindling supply (see Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee), with supply from the 2023/24 harvest still at least two months away in November at the earliest.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in August 2023 totalled 9.36 million bags, as compared with 9.07 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 3.2%. As a result, the cumulative total for 2022/23 to August is 102.9 million bags, as compared with 108.26 million bags over the same period a year ago, down 5.0%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 9.7% in August 2023 to 1.99 million bags from 2.2 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to fall, decreasing by 12.2% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23 to 20.56 million bags, versus 23.42 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in August 2023, rising by 10.2% to 3.06 million bags. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 31.5 million bags, down 8.0% from 34.22 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly due to changes in Brazil’s total green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also increased in August 2023 (27.6%) to 3.35 million bags from 2.63 million bags in August 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 2.1% to 0.84 million bags in August 2023 from 0.86 million bags in August 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 5.6% in August 2023. This is the fourteenth consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were down 12.5%, at 9.9 million bags, as compared with 11.32 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.47 million bags in August 2023, as compared with 3.22 million bags in August 2022, up 7.3%. This is the fifth consecutive month of positive growth for the Robustas and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were up 4.2%, at 40.94 million bags, as compared with 39.31 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In August 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 13.0% to 4.98 million bags. This is the first positive growth rate for the region since the 0.3% expansion in June 2022. The source of both the positive and strength of growth is Brazil, which saw its exports increase by 24.4% to 3.67 million bags from 2.95 million bags in August 2022. More specifically, it was the Robustas from the origin, which in August increased by 388.1% to 0.7 million bags from 0.14 million bags, that drove the region’s positive growth. The August 2023 exports are Brazil’s highest on record for Robusta coffee, beating the 696,873 bags exported in December 2014.

Fundamentally, the region’s turnaround is due to the recent downturn in Asia and Oceania, especially in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer and exporter. Pointedly, Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of Robustas in South America, and it has been taking advantage of the reduced volume of Robustas coming out of Vietnam. It is pertinent to note that Brazil is the fifth biggest exporter of Robustas in the world, having shipped 1.87 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 as compared with the 25.44 million bags exported from Vietnam or the 4.89 million, 4.28 million and 4.03 million bags from Uganda, India and Indonesia, respectively, the second, third and fourth largest exporters. However, in August 2023, Brazilian Robusta exports were second only to Vietnam with 1.34 million bags. To put this into perspective, in August 2023 Brazil exported the equivalent of four-and-half months’ worth of Robustas in a single month (as measured against the total Robusta exports in coffee year 2021/22).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 10.9% to 1.37 million bags in August 2023 from 1.23 million bags in August 2022. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 10.84 million bags as compared with 12.31 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 1.5%. This is the third consecutive month of positive growth rate for the region. The continued global demand for Robustas, as reflected in the latest cumulative positive growth rates for Robusta green bean exports, is the fundamental source of Africa’s positive export growth rate in August. However, like the situation in South America, the reduced volume from the Asia and Pacific region, and more pointedly Vietnam, explains this growth.

Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, took the opportunity to fill the gap in the market left by Vietnam, increasing its exports by 48.4% to 0.74 million bags in August 2023 from 0.5 million bags in August 2022. This represents the second largest monthly exports on record, just behind the 0.79 million bags exported in March 1973.

In August 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 2.0% to 1.23 million bags as compared with 1.26 million in August 2022. As a result, total exports are down 2.6% from October 2022 to August 2023 at 14.57 million bags, as compared with 14.96 million bags for the same period a year ago. The relatively shallow negative growth rate of the region masked the dynamic changes at the individual country level.

Two origins experienced strong positive growth rates (Honduras and Nicaragua), with a combined 37.2% increase in August 2023, while three others experienced sharp negative growth rates (Costa Rica, Guatemala and Mexico), with a combined 20.5% decrease. Honduras and Nicaragua outperformed both the region and group of coffee (Other Milds) to which they predominantly belong in August. This may reflect their competitive edge over other origins in Mexico and Central America – the average export unit value of Arabica green beans for Honduras and Nicaragua was 157 US cents/lb for coffee years 2017/18–2021/22, while it was on average 63 US cents/lb higher for the others (excluding Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica) at 220 US cents/lb.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 14.9% to 2.72 million bags in August 2023 and but were up 1.3% to 41.28 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23. August’s downturn was mainly due to Vietnam, with exports down 23.6% to 1.44 million bags from 1.98 million bags. This is the lowest month of August exports since the 1.4 million bags shipped in 2012. The decrease can be attributed to the depletion of available supply, reflecting the strength of its exports in the first 10 month of the current coffee year, where between October 2022 and July 2023 Vietnam shipped 25.98 million bags –3.3% higher than the same period in coffee year 2017/18, a record exporting year when the origin shipped 29.73 million bags over the full year.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 4.6% in August 2023 to 0.89 million bags from 9.3 million bags in August 2022. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 10.46 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 5.7% from the 11.09 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.6% in August 2023, down from 9.2% for the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.32 million bags in August 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 39.9% in August 2023 to 58,226 bags, as compared with 96,937 bags in August 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to June 2023 was 0.66 million bags, as compared with 0.77 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The full CRO can be downloaded from the ICO website: icocoffee.org. For further information, contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

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For this spring’s Super Bloom blend, Equator Coffees has combined sustainable coffees from Nicaragua, Thailand, and Java, to create a diverse flavour profile. The company also partnered with queer illustrator & muralist, @Rymie, to bring vibrant colour to the campaign, from which 5% of sales go back to Equator Coffee’s producer partner in Nicaragua, Cooperativa de Servicios Múltiples Sacaclí, towards equipment for their new coffee quality control lab.

The Super Bloom Blend offers celebratory flavours of confetti cake, cherry blossom, and starfruit and is available for $20.00.

The Equator Blend Instant Coffee Bulk Pack is now also available, containing 25 servings (125g) of the company’s namesake blend in instant coffee form at a price point of $45.00.

The company’s new instant coffee offerings are designed to capture complex flavours without the bitterness typically associated with instant coffee.

Further new SKUs coming soon:

• 25 count merchandising box for café and wholesale partners, featuring easy grab-and-go single-serve pouches of Equator Blend Instant Coffee
• 5-pack single-serve pouches of Equator Blend for online, retail & wholesale
• 5-pack single-serve pouches of Decaf Equator Blend for online, retail & wholesale

Coming Soon: Equator Coffees in Fairfax District, Los Angeles

Equator Coffees’ second Southern California location will be opening this spring on North Fairfax Avenue. More information will be available closer to an opening date, or reach out to the company directly at press@equatorcoffees.com for more information.

The post Equator Coffees announces new seasonal blend and opening of LA café appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Average prices for all group indicators decreased in March 2023, except for the Robustas. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 5.5% and 3.2%, to 225.23 and 222.36 US cents/lb, respectively, in March 2023. However, the Brazilian Naturals lost 4.2% whilst the Robustas gained 2.5%, reaching an average of 187.02 and 106.49 US cents/lb. The London Futures market grew 2.5% whilst ICE’s New York market shrank by 2.6%.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds led the way, shrinking 66.8% to 2.87 US cents/lb. Similarly, the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas and Colombian Milds-Robustas differentials both lost 11.7%, reaching 80.53 and 118.74 US cents/lb in March 2023. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals echoed this loss, closing in at 38.21 US cents/lb, a 11.6% loss from the month before. Presenting a more moderate loss, the Other Milds-Robustas differential contracted by 7.9%, closing the month at 115.87 US cents/lb. Conversely, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential expanded 2.3%, reaching 35.34 US cents/lb in March 2023. The arbitrage, as measured between the New York and London Futures market, contracted 8.2%, closing in at 79.57 US cents/lb in March 2023, from 86.67 US cents/lb in February 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 0.6 percentage points between February 2023 and March 2023, reaching 8.1%. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility presented the strongest volatility contraction, averaging 10.3% for the month of March 2023, a 1.8 percentage point loss. Echoing this reduction in volatility were the New York Futures and London markets, where 1.6 and 0.7 percentage points were lost, averaging 11% and 7.1%, respectively, for March 2023. Whilst volatility for the Other Milds remained stable at 8.8%, the Colombian Milds decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.7%. Conversely, the Robustas gained 0.1 percentage point of volatility from February to March, averaging 6.3% for the latter.

The New York certified stocks decreased 6.7% from the previous month, closing in at 0.80 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.27 million 60-kg bags, representing an increase of 7.2%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in February 2023 totalled 7.94 million bags, versus 9.95 million bags in the prior year month, down 20.23%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 are decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 8.5%, as compared with the 5.5% decrease observed for the first four months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to February is 43.77 million bags as compared with 47.85 million bags over the same a year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 16.0% in February 2023 to 1.72 million bags from 2.04 million bags in the prior-year period. This is the fifth consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.5% in the first five months of coffee year 2022/23 to 6.75 million bags from 8.28 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell in February 2023, diminishing by 33.0% to 2.34 million bags. For the first five months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 15.4 million bags, down 7.0% from 16.61 million bags over the same year-ago period. The shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which fell 35.4% in February 2023 to 2.11 million bags from 3.27 million bags in February 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 6.8% to 0.99 million bags in February 2023 from 1.06 million bags in February 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 5.7% in February 2023. As a result of the continued downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October 2022 to February 2023 were down by 14.1%, at 4.67 million bags, versus 5.43 million bags in the first five months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 2.89 million bags in February 2023, as compared with 3.35 million bags in February 2022, down 13.7%. As a result, the shipments in the first five months of coffee year 2022/23 were down to 16.91 million bags from 17.53 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In February 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 29.8% to 3.48 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 30.7%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 32.5% and 5.1% in February 2023, falling to 2.41 million bags and 0.94 million bags. Peru is continuing to see its exports fall at a significantly faster rate, plunging by 44.6% in February 2023.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 15.3% to 2.99 million bags in February 2023 and were down 5.6% to 17.4 million bags in the first five months of coffee year 2022/23. Vietnam and India are the main drivers behind the latest downturn. The former’s exports are down by 25.3% to 1.79 million bags from 2.39 million bags in February 2022, while the latter’s also fell 9.5% to 0.49 million bags from 0.54 million bags in the same period.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 2.2% to 1.02 million bags in February 2023 from 1.0 million bags in February 2022. For the first five months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 5.23 million bags as compared with 5.15 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 1.4%.

Uganda is the main driver behind the jump in the region’s exports, with shipments of coffee increasing by 6.6% to 0.48 million bags as compared with 0.45 million bags in February 2022. Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire and the Democratic Republic of Congo are three other origins of note for February 2023, with their exports up 62.5%, 18.1% and 30.0%, respectively, adding to Uganda’s upward impetus within the region. Kenya was another notable origin in February 2023, though for different reasons, with exports down 43.5%.

In February 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were up 2.4% to 1.42 million bags as compared with 1.39 million in February 2022. For the first five months of the current coffee year, however, exports remain down 10.1%, totalling 4.03 million bags as compared with 4.48 million bags in October–February 2021/22. However, the region’s latest export results broke the four consecutive months of negative growth thanks to Costa Rica (up 6.2%), Dominican Republic (up 95.6%), El Salvador (up 12.9%) and Nicaragua (up 35.1%).

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 5.8% in February 2023 to 0.92 million bags from 0.87 million bags in February 2022. In the first five months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 4.59 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 11.2% from the 5.09 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.2% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in February 2023, up from 10.1% in February 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.3 million bags in February 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were up 6.2% in February 2023 to 50,140 bags, versus 47,212 bags in February 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to February 2023 was 292,247 bags, as compared with 336,790 bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
World coffee production slipped by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in several key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23.

Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built-up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021, explains the bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22.

Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to undergo another year of deficit, with a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

This outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The CRO offers an insight into the factors moving the global coffee industry in the most recent past and draws out the potential events that may drive the industry in the near future. For further information on the CRO, please contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

For the full report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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Climate change and the continued weather unpredictability have prompted agriculture and manufacturing industries to look deeper into their practices and their impact. Growing food with weather shifts wiping out crops and depleted soil beds not providing adequate nutrients is increasingly challenging. Sustainable and organic methods can ensure that no further harm is being done; however, there is increased recognition of the need for incremental positive changes in the atmosphere and the soil.

On 16 January, the World Economic Forum reported the need to take immediate action to create a nature positive economy. This includes recognising regenerative agriculture for both its potential to address the climate crisis, while also cultivating new businesses and jobs.

Keeping carbon in the earth and plants

One way to decrease the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is through biological sequestering, which naturally occurs in grasslands, forests and soil. In a recent study published by The Journal of Agricultural Science, researchers Iticha and Niguse explored coffee plants’ contribution to sequestering carbon in agroforestry systems of Southwestern Ethiopia. The study looked at coffee forests’ role in mitigating climate change to quantify coffee plants’ contribution to the overall carbon stock of coffee agroforestry systems. The study’s results demonstrated the interdependency between crops, specifically, that the carbon sequestration varied with the coffee management system and type of shade tree. “Albizia julibrissin” (mimosa or silk tree plant) was the most compatible plant, followed by the mixed tree-shaded stratum and the “Syzgium”-shaded coffee stratum.

According to the Rodale Institute, the widespread adoption of regenerative organic practices could sequester more than 100 percent of the annual carbon dioxide emissions. In fact, the organic matter in soil has up to four times more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation. However, to sequester the carbon in the ground, there is a need for a continual supply of organic matter. This organic matter is vital to both prevent carbon from leaching into the atmosphere and to support microbial life and plant life.

Regenerative agricultural practices are increasingly being recognised as the key to achieving net positive and, in turn, helping repair the atmosphere and infuse nutrients back into the soil. It is a nature-positive agricultural system that mimics natural processes in the ecosystems. Through regenerative agriculture, agroecosystems can be designed to improve soil health, biodiversity, the carbon sequestration rate, and increase the economic resilience of farmers.

On its website, Nespresso explains that regenerative agriculture “is a holistic agricultural system that works in harmony with its local environment. Practices such as using cover crops, crop rotation, no-tillage, diversification (when possible, with trees) and others are applied for that purpose.” Adopting regenerative agriculture practices has been proven to have a widescale impact in addition to carbon sequestering, ecosystem resilience and improved soil health such as developing more nutrient-dense foods.

Recent research from the Farming Systems Trial conducted by the Rodale Institute revealed that these practices could produce a more nutrient-dense crop and be an effective model to withstand the stressors of extreme weather changes. Their 40-year report showed a positive impact on soil health, water infiltration, carbon capture, and yields when adopting regenerative organic practices. In addition, the trial results supported that regenerative organic plots could sustain their crops in extreme weather conditions. “The Farming Systems Trial (FST) is one of our most significant research projects,” Rodale Institute CEO Jeff Moyer said. “In fact, with FST’s 40 years of accumulated data and findings, it is fair to say that it is the most consequential study of organic agriculture anywhere.”

Despite this long history with regenerative practices, conventional farmers have only recently recognised regenerative as a potential solution to sustain and grow their businesses. Growth in the tea and coffee sectors is on a positive trajectory, including adopting the Regenerative Organic Alliance (ROC) certification to help communicate these agricultural practices to consumers. Equator Coffee, Heirloom Coffee Roasters, Canyon Coffee, and Groundwork Coffee are four coffee roasters using the ROC certification, obtaining certified coffee from producer groups based in Nicaragua and Sierra Leone.

On 6 March, the 2023 Natural Products Expo West trade show in Anaheim, California, reported that 63 CPG brands attending the event support regenerative agriculture, an increase of ten companies from the previous year. Regenerative agriculture was a topic of interest this year, with the Expo West recognising and celebrating leaders in regenerative agriculture and acknowledging the challenges these companies have faced. “The keynote speaker on the first day at the Expo West really put forth regenerative agriculture as the top solution to address climate change today,” said Michael Ham, founder, Wild Orchid Tea, Mt Kisco, New York. “People are waking up to the fact that we cannot extract any more from the Earth, and we need to replenish what we’ve removed.”

Natural Products Expo West reported that there are several barriers preventing widespread adoption, including a limited supply chain, difficulty in implementing the practices, and a lack of clarity on how to communicate the value to the end consumer. Only 4 percent of US consumers are aware of regenerative practices; however, 49 percent of US consumers identified as either being health and/or environmentally motivated, providing a potential market for regenerative products to tap into.

“The biggest thing brands need to look at is the purchasing power of the younger demographics,” said Ham. “This group is looking for brands very focused on sustainability, environmental consciousness and how they treat their workers.” Wild Orchid Tea has been slowly building awareness of the virtues of regenerative agriculture through education and its product line. This year, one of their primary areas of focus is on growing their retail market, which includes launching a plant-based tea bag line providing consumers with a convenient, high-quality regenerative tea product.

Within the last five years, several significant players in both the tea and coffee industries have become advocates for this method of agriculture, providing resources and training for farmers wanting to convert the farms. Established by Filipe Villela and Marco de Boer, reNature, based in the Netherlands, was created to support coffee farmers contemplating switching to regenerative practices. The company supports farmers with various tools, including training programs and strategic advisory consultations, to aid them with the transition to a regenerative farming system.

In its Positive Cup report, Nespresso emphasised the need to accelerate the transition to regenerative agriculture. This includes the commitment to reduce the use of agrochemicals, and adopt nature-based practices, carbon removal, including a commitment to plant four million trees each year, and the adoption of crop diversification, and reduced tillage, to infuse the health of the soil, and reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Nespresso is working in conjunction with reNature to both define key regenerative agricultural practices in the coffee sector and develop an analytical framework to evaluate both the costs and benefits of these practices. One of the first adopters of these practices is the Guima Café, Brazil, where they are currently implementing regenerative agriculture practices, beginning with a 10-hectare demonstration plot, with the goal of scaling it to 850 hectares.

“I think this year is going to be a seminal moment for regenerative brands,” shared Ham. He shared that his booth received a lot of interest and support about regenerative practices throughout Expo West, including questions from major retailers and tea brands. “It (regenerative agriculture) is going to be a focus at these top retailers. This increased attention on regenerative practices, and products, is vital to help increase consumer awareness of this agricultural practices, and in turn, drive sales.”

Led by its chairman, Andreas Illy, who has long-been a proponent, illycaffè has been a passionate advocate for virtuous (regenerative) agriculture in both the coffee industry, and in agriculture in general. The Trieste, Italy-based company aims to be carbon neutral by 2033. Recognising the need to increase consumer engagement in the necessity of supporting regenerative agriculture practices, illycaffè launched its #cupsidedown campaign, which was introduced in an Illy Art Collection this past October with the artist Matteo Attruia. The goal is to increase consumer awareness of the necessity of a circular economy, with virtuous agriculture being an essential piece of the puzzle.

“The upside-down cup, symbol of this campaign, has been designed to propose a change of perspective, a different way of living and observing our daily lives, starting from a natural gesture such as drinking an illy coffee, which must not be appreciated only for its taste but also for the value it generates for people and for the Planet,” explained Cristina Scocchia, CEO of illycaffè. “To amplify the positive impact it is necessary to stimulate a change of perspective, a new way of thinking about the use of resources that favour the transition from a linear economic model to a circular one. By working together, with a sense of responsibility, we can drive the transaction towards a sustainable future.”

Although regenerative agriculture is beginning to grow into various sectors, there are still several gaps across the supply chain. “It is still difficult to find farmers who have adopted regenerative practices,” said Ham, “We are very lucky to have partnered with a farmer who’s been doing it for over 30 years.” The tea for Wild Orchid is sourced from a wild tea farm on Jeju Island, where the the plot is nourished by volcanic organic soil.

ReGen Brands podcasters Kyle Krull and Anthony Corsaro labelled 2022 as the year regenerative agriculture took root. They emphasised that for regenerative brands to achieve success and, in turn, long-term sustainability, there needs to be a commitment to developing a regenerative market. They shared that there is a continued need for unified certification and standards to reduce consumer confusion. One recommendation they had was for the brands to work together to create a unified messaging strategy, including finding a way to define their values. Their 17 February podcast spoke with Abianne Falla, cofounder of CatSpring Yaupon, Cat Spring, Texas.

Falla’s company is highly diversified, selling sustainably wild grown yaupon as a wholesale and retail tisane and as an ingredient supplier for those seeking regeneratively grown Yaupon tea. “2011 was the driest year in Texas,” shared Falla on the podcast. “Everything was looking like wilted spinach, the only thing that wasn’t dying was Yaupon. We’ve always known the plant but had no idea that it was anything but a nuisance until this drought.” Yaupon Tea has 11 acres of certified regenerative organic yaupon, all of which are sustainably wild grown.

“Just like in other categories, the main driver for people to switch from the way that they’ve always done it comes from their philosophy,” said Ham. “If they understand that they can make their land better, make the soil better, grow a healthier crop and do it in a way that is sequestering carbon and reversing climate change, but in the end, it comes down to profitability.” Regenerative organic tea and coffee farms are still in their infancy, but the potential for a more resilient crop, resulting in higher yields, better quality products, and higher profits, are strong motivators to adopt these practices.

• Anne-Marie Hardie is a freelance writer, professor and speaker based in Barrie, Ontario. She may be reached at: annemariehardie1@gmail.com.

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The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 8.9% and 11.1%, to 238.39 and 229.73 US cents/lb, respectively, in February 2023. However, the Brazilian Naturals and the Robustas gained 14.8% and 8.3%, reaching an average of 195.18 and 103.93 US cents/lb. The London Futures market grew 9.8% whilst ICE’s New York market shrank by 13.2%. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds and Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differentials are leading the way, shrinking 28.8% and 11.6% to 8.66 and 43.21 US cents/lb, respectively. The Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also lost 5.9%, averaging 34.55 US cents/lb for the month of February 2023.

Conversely, the Colombian Milds-Robustas and Other Milds-Robustas differentials grew by 9.4% and 13.6%, closing the month at 134.46 and 125.80 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential presented the strongest growth of 23.2% from January 2023 to February 2023, reaching 91.25 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage, as measured between the New York and London Futures market expanded 17.2%, closing in at 86.67 US cents/lb in February 2023, from 73.97 US cents/lb in January 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 0.1 percentage point between January 2023 and February 2023, reaching 8.7%. Robustas and the London Futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 6.2% and 7.8%, respectively, in February 2023. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 12.1%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. Whilst the volatility of the Colombian Milds stayed constant at 9.2%, the Other Milds, contracted 0.1 percentage point to 8.8%. The variation of the New York Futures market’s volatility increased by 0.3 percentage point, averaging 12.6% for the month of February 2023.

The New York certified stocks decreased by 5.1% from the previous month, closing in at 0.86 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.19 million 60-kg bags, representing an increase of 13.8%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in January 2023 totalled 8.69 million bags, as compared with 10.23 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 15.0%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 is decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 5.4%, as compared with 1.8% decrease for the first three months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to January is 35.86 million bags as compared with 37.9 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.7% in January 2023 to 1.59 million bags from 1.93 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fourth consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the current coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.1% in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23 to 5.11 million bags from 6.24 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22. The region’s latest decline was due to a confluence of downturns in El Salvador (-63.4%), Guatemala (-40.5%) and Nicaragua (-23.2%) against upturns in Honduras (+2.8%) and Mexico (+106.7%), with the negative growth rates of the former group of origins overwhelming the gains of the latter.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell in January 2023, falling by 17.2% to 2.78 million bags. For the first four months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 13.1 million bags, down 0.1% from 13.11 million bags over the same period a year ago. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also fell in January 2023 (down 18.1%) to 2.52 million bags from 3.08 million bags in January 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 20.9% to 0.87 million bags in January 2023 from 1.1 million bags in January 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 19.4% in January 2023. As a result of the sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October 2022 to January 2023 were down by 15.9%, at 3.68 million bags, as compared with 4.37 million bags in the first four months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.45 million bags in January 2023, as compared with 3.84 million bags in January 2022, down 10.1%, bookending the growth rates of the first four months of the current coffee year, which had opened with a 6.8% downturn, followed by two consecutive months of positive growth. As a result, the shipments in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23 were down 1.4% to 13.97 million bags from 14.18 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In January 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 19.9% to 3.93 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 20.9%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 16.0% and 18.8% in January 2023, falling to 2.86 million bags and 0.85 million bags, respectively, from 3.4 million bags and 1.05 million bags in January 2022. Peru is continuing to see its exports fall by a significantly greater rate, plunging by 63.9% in January 2023, which follows 41.5% downturns in November and December 2022. For Colombia, the sharp downturns continue to be linked to local production conditions, which have been hampered by persistent bad weather linked to the La Niña phenomenon.

In January 2023, Colombia’s production recorded zero growth, following four consecutive months of negative growth, leading the total coffee output for the twelve months to January 2023 to decrease by 10% to 11.08 million bags from 12.36 million bags in the same period a year ago. In Peru, the negative impact of the weather on the origin’s exports has already been addressed in recent issues of the CMR, with social unrest in the country being an additional causal component introduced in the January 2023 issue. However, the size of the plunge in export volume in January 2023 is technical and reflects the anomalous export volume observed in January 2022, in which 435,961 bags of coffee were shipped, the largest export volume for the month of January on record and 53% greater than the second-largest. The average export volume over the past six years, 2016–2021, is 195,565 bags; measured against this, the January 2023 exports are down 19.5%, which is more in line with the region and Brazil and Colombia’s performances.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 17.2% to 3.45 million bags in January 2023 and were down 3.3% to 14.42 million bags in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23. The region’s top three origins are the main drivers for the latest downturn, with the exports of Vietnam down 12.7% to 2.45 million bags from 2.8 million bags in January 2022. Likewise, India and Indonesia’s exports declined by 39.7% to 0.34 million bags from 0.56 million bags and 18.8% to 0.58 million bags from 0.72 million bags in January 2022, respectively.

The New Year and Lunar New Year holidays coincided in January 2023, a rare event, leading to a shortfall of business days, thus explaining the decrease in exports from Indonesia and Vietnam.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 19.5% to 1.11 million bags in January 2023 from 0.93 million bags in January 2022. For the first four months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 4.22 million bags as compared with 4.15 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 1.4%. Uganda is the main driver behind the jump in the region’s exports, with coffee shipments from the region’s largest producer and exporter increasing by 22.9% to 0.49 million bags, as compared with 0.4 million bags in January 2022. Significantly, it ended 12 consecutive months of decreasing exports, which had led the origin’s cumulative total exports over the past year (January–December 2022) to fall to 5.63 million bags as compared with 6.77 million bags between January and December 2021, down 16.9% or 1.14 million bags.

Drought in most of the coffee growing regions has led to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output; however, exports are up in January 2023 because of a stocks drawdown on the back of rising prices for Robustas which in turn were responding to the reduced global supply, especially from Indonesia and Vietnam. Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania are two other origins of note for January 2023, with their exports up 105.8% and 17.8%, respectively.

In January 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 5.0% to 1.21 million bags as compared with 1.27 million in January 2022. For the first four months of the current coffee year, exports are also down 11.4%, totalling 2.75 million bags as compared with 3.1 million bags in October–January 2021/22. As mentioned previously, the region’s latest decline, the fourth in a row since the start of coffee year 2022/23, was due to a confluence of downturns in El Salvador (-58.3%), Guatemala (-40.9%) and Nicaragua (-22.5%) against upturns in Honduras (+2.8%) and Mexico (+61.4%), with the negative growth of the former group overwhelming the gains of the latter. The 2.8% increase for Honduras is the first uptick since January 2022, and reflects the fact that the origin finds itself deep in its harvesting season with a build-up of sufficient supply to meet its contractual obligations.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 3.0% in January 2023 to 0.95 million bags from 0.98 million bags in January 2022. In the first four months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 3.75 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 11.2% from the 4.22 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.1% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in January 2023, as in January 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee and shipped 0.34 million bags in January 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 9.2% in January 2023 to 61,683 bags, as compared with 67,918 bags in January 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to January 2023 was 278,977 bags, as compared with 289,578 bags in the same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.
World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

The ICO will be publishing shortly new consolidated revised values for production and consumption for 2021/22.

For the full report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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The I-CIP lost 0.1% from December 2022 to January 2023, averaging 156.95 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 155.54 US cents/lb. In January 2023, the I-CIP fluctuated between a minimum and maximum of 145.54 and 174.95 US cents/lb, whilst opening the month at 157.31 and ending January on 174.95 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all group indicators remained stable, with a slight decrease in January 2023. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 2.3% and 1.7%, to 218.91 and 206.76 US cents/lb respectively, in January 2023. However, the Brazilian Naturals and the Robustas gained 0.6% and 2.4%, reaching an average of 170.03 and 95.98 US cents/lb. The London Futures market grew 2.2% whilst ICE’s New York market shrank by 3.9%.

Across the board, price differentials shrank, with the Colombian Milds-Other Milds and Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differentials leading the way by shrinking 12.5% and 11.3% to 12.15 and 48.88 US cents/lb, respectively. The Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also lost 10.9%, averaging 110.78 US cents/lb for the month of January 2023. Presenting more moderate losses, the Colombian Milds-Robustas and Other Milds-Robustas differentials declined by 5.7% and 4.9%, closing the month at 122.93 and 100.78 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential also presented a moderate loss of 1.6% from December 2022 to January 2023, reaching 74.05 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage, as measured between the New York and London Futures market lost 10.1%, closing in at 73.97 US cents/lb in January 2023, from 82.26 US cents/lb in December 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 0.5 percentage points between December 2022 and January 2023, reaching 8.6%. Robustas and the London Futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 6.0% and 6.8%, respectively, in January 2023. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 12.7%, a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for December 2022 to January 2023 is -2.4 to 9.2% and -0.8 to 8.9%, respectively. The variation of the New York Futures market’s volatility contracted 0.2 percentage points, averaging 12.3% for the month of January 2023.

The New York certified stocks increased by 4.3% from the previous month, closing in at 0.91 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.04 million 60-kg bags, representing a decrease of 3.8%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in December 2022 totalled 9.81 million bags, as compared with 10.64 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 7.7%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups except for the Robustas, which recorded a marginal gain of 1.1%. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 are down 1.1% as compared with 2.4% increase for the first two months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to December is 27.26 million bags as compared with 27.67 million bags over the same a year ago, down 1.5%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 24.8% in December 2022 to 1.24 million bags from 1.65 million bags in the same period last year. This is the third consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 17.8% in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23 to 3.54 million bags from 4.3 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22. The latest downturn is primarily driven by Honduras and Peru, down 33.7% and 41.4%, respectively in December 2022 as compared with December 2021.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals also declined in December 2022, falling by 10.3% to 3.24 million bags, following a 15.2% increase in November 2022. For the first three months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 10.32 million bags, up 5.8% from 9.76 million bags over the same period a year ago. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the group, which also fell in December 2022 (down 14%) as compared with November 2022 (up 15.5%).

Green bean exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 7.5% to 1.08 million bags in December 2022 from 1.18 million bags in December 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 11.8% in December 2022. As a result of the sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October to December 2022 were down by 12.7%, at 2.85 million bags, as compared with 3.27 million bags in the first three months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 4.25 million bags in December 2022, as compared with 4.21 million bags in December 2021, up 1.1%, continuing to build on the 2.6% increase in November 2022. The two consecutive months of positive growth meant that shipments in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23 were up 2.0% to 10.55 million bags from 10.34 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In December 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 17.3% to 4.64 million bags. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee fall by 15.2% and 11.0% in December 2022, falling to 3.21 million bags and 1.05 million bags, respectively, from 3.79 million bags and 1.18 million bags in December 2021. Ecuador and Peru, however, saw their volume of exports fall by nearly half, plunging by 45.2% and 41.5%, respectively. For Colombia, the sharp downturns continue to be linked to local production conditions. Persistent bad weather linked to the La Niña phenomenon caused Colombia’s December 2022 coffee output to drop by 29%, the country’s fourth consecutive month of negative growth, with a consequent impact on exports.

In Peru, weather-driven elongation of the current harvesting period and intermittent rains hampering the drying process, both of which negatively affect the quality of dried beans, have been affecting the supply of coffee beans since the beginning of the 2022/23 season. However, since the beginning of the last month of 2022, social unrest in the country may have added to supply problems, leading to December 2022 having the lowest volume of exports since 2015, when only 310,000 bags were shipped from Peru. As for Ecuador, the sharp fall in December 2022 can be attributed to the previous anomalous growth in December 2021, when the export volume of all forms of coffee increased by 164.4%. The 57,599 bags of coffee exported in December 2022 is in line with the current trend and previous volumes for the month, averaging 57,508 bags in 2016–2020.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 4.2% to 4.59 million bags in December 2022 and were up 2.0% to 6.57 million bags in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23. The region’s increase is explained by Vietnam (up 16.4%), the largest producer and exporter of coffee from Asia and Oceania, which shipped 3.38 million bags in December 2022. However, the region’s relatively small increase was due to the 39.0% decrease in exports of the region’s third-largest exporter, India, which shipped only 0.42 million bags as compared with 0.68 million bags in December 2021. It was also the fifth consecutive month of negative growth for the origin’s exports. The downturn is to be expected, however, as coffee year 2021/22 was a record-breaking year for India, with the origin shipping 7.24 million bags as compared with 5.95 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 9.0% to 0.97 million bags in December 2022 from 1.13 million bags in December 2021. For the first three months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 3.17 million bags as compared with 3.22 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 1.4%. Uganda is the main driver behind the fall in the region’s exports, with shipments of coffee from the region’s largest producer and exporter falling by 21.9% to 0.42 million bags as compared with 0.54 million bags in December 2021.

This is now the 12th consecutive month of decline for Uganda, with its cumulative total exports from January to December 2022 having amounted to 5.63 million bags, as compared with 6.77 million bags over the same period a year ago (January–December 2021), equating to a 20.25% or 1.14 million bag decrease. Drought in most of the coffee growing regions, leading to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output, is continuing to hamper Ugandan coffee exports. As noted previously, Africa’s export performance is not entirely hindered by Uganda, with Côte d’Ivoire (up 69.4% to 0.19 million bags), Kenya (up 33.2% to 0.12 million bags) and Tanzania (up 18.6% to 0.34 million bags), giving the region tremendous uplifts in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23.

In December 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 15.2% to 0.69 million bags, as compared with 0.81 million in December 2021. For the first three months of the current coffee year, exports were also down 15.2%, totalling 1.55 million bags as compared with 1.83 million bags in October–December 2021/22. The region’s latest decline, the third consecutive month since the start of coffee year 2022/23, is mainly a reflection of Honduras, the largest exporter and producer of the region, with a 33.7% decrease (99,918 bags) in exports in December 2022. Two reasons explain the latest fall for Honduras: (i) continuing struggles with leaf-rust, or roya, affecting the origin’s harvests for coffee year 2022/23; and (ii) a technical downturn reflecting a 46.3% increase in December 2021. Costa Rica, Guatemala and Nicaragua were the region’s other major origins making negative contributions to Mexico and Central America’s exports in December 2022, decreasing by 23.3% (31,848 bags), 20.7% (87,100 bags) and 35.1% (103,290 bags), respectively.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 15.9% in December 2022 to 0.98 million bags from 1.17 million bags in December 2021. In the first three months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 2.8 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 13.6% from the 3.25 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.0% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in December 2022, down from 9.1% in December 2021.

Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.34 million bags in December 2022, followed by India with 0.22. Exports of roasted beans were up 4.7% in December 2022 to 75,852 bags, as compared with 72,446 bags in December 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to December 2022 was 208,975 bags, as compared with 221,554 bags in the same period a year ago, down 5.7%.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year. World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags. The ICO will be publishing shortly new consolidated revised values for production and consumption for 2021/22.

For more information or the full report, visit the ICO’s new website: icocoffee.org.

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Average prices for all group indicators decreased in November 2022. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 14.8% and 10.9%, respectively, month on month in November. The former averaged 223.22 US cents/lb in November 2022, whilst the latter averaged 213.85 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals fell by 13.4% to 166.54 US cents/lb. The Robustas fell below the 100 US cents/lb mark, averaging 92.59 US cents/lb for the month of November, a 10.1% decline from the previous month. The downturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 14.0% in November 2022 over October 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas also shrank by 10.3%. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential suffered a month-on-month loss of 57.2%, closing in at 9.37 US cents/lb for November 2022.

The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds-Robustas differentials declined by 18.7% and 17.8% to 56.68 and 130.63 US cents/lb in November 2022, respectively. Falling the least was the Other Milds Brazilian Naturals differential, declining by only 1.0%, to 47.31 US cents/lb. The Other Milds Robustas differential lost 11.5% from October to November 2022 reaching 121.26 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential retracted 17.2% to 73.95 US cents/lb for the aforementioned period.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 17.5%, falling to 82.13 US Cents/lb in November 2022 from 99.56 US cents/lb in October 2022 precipitated by the faster rate of price decline of Arabica compared with Robusta.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 2.2 percentage points between October and November 2022, reaching 9.3%. Robustas and the London futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 7.2% and 7.1%, respectively, in November 2022. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 11.9%, a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for October to November 2022 is 3.6 to 11.0% and 2.0 to 9.6%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, posting an increase of 2.7 percentage points, averaging 12.5% for the month of November 2022.

The New York certified stocks increased by 45.3% from the previous month, closing in at 0.59 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.45 million bags, representing a decrease of 4.6%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global exports of green beans in October 2022 totalled 8.5 million bags, compared with 8.72 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 2.5%. The downturn was spread across most of the coffee groups, with the Brazilian Naturals alone starting the new coffee year on a positive footing with an uptick of 0.5%, the third consecutive months of positive growth, exporting 3.44 million bags of green beans.

The positive start to the new coffee year made by the Brazilian Naturals was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with a 1.9% increase in the exports of green beans, outweighing the downturns of the other major origins of the Brazilian Naturals group – Ethiopia (-10.9%), Uganda (-6.0%) and Vietnam (-19.5%).

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 4.1% to 0.94 million bags in October 2022 from 0.98 million bags in October 2021, driven by the contractions in Colombia and Tanzania whose exports of green beans were down 6.0% and 2.3%, respectively. Within this coffee group, Kenya alone started the new coffee year on a bright note, exporting an additional 46.2% of green beans in October 2022 as compared with October 2021. The decline in October 2022 is the fourth in a row for Colombia, and another month in which production is at fault for the decreasing exports – in October 2022 Colombia’s coffee output fell by 12%. The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (FNC) attributed the decline in production to excess rains due to the La Niña event, which translated into excess water, less sunlight, and fewer blooms in coffee plantations.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 4.3% in October 2022 to 1.3 million bags from 1.36 million bags in the same period last year. Guatemala (-28.0%), Honduras (-49.2%) and Peru (-8.4%) were behind this fall. In Honduras, the coffee industry continues to struggle with leaf rust, which is affecting production, while Guatemala’s output is being hampered due to climatic reasons and the availability of labour, all of which are having a knock-on effect on the countries’ exports.

Of the four coffee groups, the Robustas have recorded the worst performance in the new coffee year 2022/23, with exports falling by 4.8% to 2.82 million bags from 2.96 million bags. Except for India and Indonesia, all major origins within the Robustas group saw their exports of green beans fall in October 2022 – Uganda (-6.0%) and Vietnam (-19.5%). Uganda is still facing drought in most of its coffee-growing regions, which has led and is continuing to lead to lower outputs and, subsequently, lower exports.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In October 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased marginally by 0.2% to 4.99 million bags. The marginality of the growth rate was largely the result of increases in the exports of Brazil (1.1%) and Ecuador (48.3%), edged by the decreases in exports of Colombia (-2.3%) and Peru (-9.4%).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania totalled 3.17 million bags in October 2022, 10,000 bags greater than in October 2021. The region’s miniscule growth rate, however, belies the strong growth rates amongst the major origins; India and Indonesia made gains of 15.1% to 0.54 million bags and 34.5% to 1.12 million bags, respectively, while Vietnam suffered a 19.5% fall to 1.37 million bags.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 2.4% to 1.1 million bags in October 2022 from 1.13 million bags in October 2021. Ethiopia and Uganda were the two main origins behind the region’s downturn in exports in October 2022, with the respective growth rates of shipped coffee at -10.9% and -6.0%. The fact that Africa’s decrease of exports was softer than as suggested by the growth rates of the region’s top two biggest exporters is down to the counterweights of Burundi (316.7%), Côte d’Ivoire (83.2%) and Kenya (46.3%). However, the greater-than-normal growth rates of the three origins do not reflect fundamental changes to the respective domestic coffee industries but are technical anomalies due to large negative growth rates in October 2021. Burundi’s exports of all forms of coffee were down 66.5% and Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya by 79.1% and 54.1%, respectively.

In October 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 14.6% to 0.49 million bags as compared with 0.57 million in October 2021. Of the 12 origins in the region only the Dominican Republic (10.5%), Mexico (1.1%) Nicaragua (24.6%) and Trinidad & Tobago (259.2%) saw exports increase in October 2022. Honduras exports fell by 49.2% in October 2022, with the volume of all forms of coffee shipped decreasing to 40,842 bags as compared with 80,328 bags. The origin continues to suffer from the impact of leaf-rust which affected the output of coffee year 2021/22 and is now having an adverse effect in the supply available for export. Of the region’s major origins (million bags and over), Costa Rica suffered the steepest fall, with its exports falling by 68.9% in October 2022 to 9,216 bags, as compared with 13,052 bags in the same period a year ago. The volume shipped in October 2022 is the lowest since September 1976, when 7,093 bags were exported. Costa Rica’s coffee institute, ICAFE, cites lower-than-expected production in coffee year 2021/22 as the reason for the drop in exports.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 10.9% in October 2022 to 1.19 million bags from 1.07 million bags in October 2021. The share of soluble coffee in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.5% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in October 2022 as compared with 8.9% in October 2021. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, and the country shipped 291,345 bags in October 2022, down 6.2% from 310,731 bags in October 2021. The second and third placed origins, India and Indonesia, however started the new coffee year at a gallop, with their soluble coffee exports up 25.0% and 33.7%, at 180,000 bags and 397,805 bags, respectively, in October 2022.

Exports of roasted beans decreased by 18.0% in October 2022 to 61,226 bags from 74,697 bags in October 2021.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2022/23 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2022/23 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2022/23, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) lost 0.2% from August to September 2022, averaging 199.63 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 198.43 US cents/lb. In September 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated in between 193.28 and 206.37 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all groups indicators decreased in September 2022, except for the Robustas, which had an uptick of 1.6% from August to September 2022. The Robustas averaged 111.36 US cents/lb for the month of September. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, month-on-month in September. The former averaged 294.09 US cents/lb in September 2022, whilst the latter averaged 267.49 US cents/lb. The upturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 0.1% in September 2022 over August 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE (International Coffee Exchange) Futures Europe for the Robustas grew by 1.8%.

The Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential took the hardest hit from August to September 2022, retracting 3.6% from 112.26 to 108.23 US cents/lb as growth of the Robustas outpaced the Brazilian Naturals. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential sustained a 2.3% loss for the aforementioned period, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential shrank by 1.8%. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential grew by 1% to 74.50 US cents/lb in September 2022. The strongest growth among all the differentials was observed for the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential, gaining 3.0%, ranging 46.52 to 47.90 US cents/lb for their respective monthly averages. Lastly, the Other Milds-Robustas differential lost 1.7% from August to September 2022. The average of the monthly differential stood at 156.13 US cents/lb, down from 158.78 in August 2022.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 1.7%, falling to 117.74 US Cents/lb in September 2022 from 119.79 US cents/lb in August 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 2.0 percentage points between August and September 2022, reaching a low of 8.3%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 7.3% and 7.0% in September 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility, was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 10.9%, a 2.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for August to September 2022 is -2.0 to 8.0% and -2.8 to 8.6%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, albeit posting a decrease of 3.4 percentage points, averaging 11.2% for the month of September 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 37.2% from the previous month, closing in at 0.45 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.59 million bags, representing a decrease of 0.8%.

Export by Coffee Groups
Global exports of green beans in August 2022 totalled 8.83 million bags, compared with 9.17 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 3.7%. The downturn was spread across all groups of coffee, with the exception of the Brazilian Naturals, which saw a 7.1% increase in August 2022 as compared with the same month a year ago. The second consecutive month of negative growth has pushed the cumulative total exports of green beans for the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 further into red, down 1.0% as compared to 0.7% decrease for the first 10 months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2021/22 to August is 107.05 million bags as compared with 108.13 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 23.0% to 0.86 million bags in August 2022 from 1.12 million bags in August 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 25.6% in August 2022. As a result of the relatively sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds in October 2021–August 2022 were down by 5.7% at 11.32 million bags, as compared with 12.0 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2020/21. Colombia exported 0.79 million bags of green beans in August 2022, the lowest August exports since 0.54 million bags were shipped in 2012.

The Brazilian Naturals bounced back in August with a 7.1% increase, following a 4.6% fall in July 2022, exporting 2.85 million bags as compared with 2.66 million bags in August 2021. The upturn was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with its total green bean exports increasing by 4.6% in August 2022 to 2.44 million bags. However, the cumulative total exports of the Brazilian Naturals for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is down 5.8% at 34.52 million bags, as compared with 36.66 million bags.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 3.7% in August 2022 to 1.94 million bags from 2.01 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive months of fall. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to increase but at a declining rate, falling to 1.3% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 (22.09 million bags vs 21.08 million bags) from 2.7% in the first 10 months of the same coffee year. Guatemala and Honduras were the two main origins responsible for the latest fall in exports of the Other Milds, with their exports of green beans plunging by 27.7% and 41.3%, respectively.

In Honduras, the coffee industry is struggling with leaf-rust, or roya, which has hit the industry’s harvests, with the country’s coffee association lowering the exports outlook for coffee year 2021/22, twice already, from 5.823 million bags to 4.61 million bags. Guatemala is also dealing with impact of a lower production, due mainly to climatic reasons and availability of labour, that is having a knock-on effect on the country’s exports.

Exports of the Robustas totalled 3.17 million bags in August 2022, as compared with 3.38 million bags in August 2021, down 6.0%. Exports of green beans for the first 11 months of the current and previous coffee years for the Robustas were 42.57 million bags and 41.22 million bags, respectively, up 3.8%. Ethiopia and India are the two main origins behind the latest downturn, suffering from 16.0% and 13.1% decreases, respectively, in August 2022, with their total green bean exports at 0.43 million bags and 0.37 million bags, respectively. India, especially, has had a good year so far, with the total exports of green beans for the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 increasing by 31.1% to 4.62 million bags as compared to 3.53 million bags, an increase of 1.1 million bags. As a result, the production/export ratio is falling sharply, down from 1.48 in coffee year 2020/21 to 1.12 in coffee year 2021/22. The ratio is a good indication of supply availability. Therefore, it is possible that the sharp fall in India’s August 2022 exports is a reflection of the supply availability towards the end of a stellar year.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 13.2% in August 2022 to 0.98 million bags from 0.87 million bags in August 2021. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, a total of 11.06 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 6.3% from the 10.4 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.3% (measured on a moving 12- month average) in August 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.58 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, followed by India with 2.0 million bags, with Indonesia in third place at 1.53 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans increased by 59.9% in August 2022 to 89,548 bags from 55,995 bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 was 0.75 million bags, as compared with 0.72 million bags in same period a year ago.

Regional Outlook
In October 2021 to August 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 23.3% to 50.46 million bags. Brazil and Colombia are the reasons for this large drop in exports. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 27.2% to 34.74 million bags from 47.4 million bags in October-August 2020/21. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 18.7% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 at 11.17 million bags, from 13.74 million bags in the same period a year ago. A smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off-season’, along with problems with containers and shipping, mainly noted during the middle of the current coffee year, explains the large drop in exports of all forms of coffee in Brazil, while the fall in the exports of Colombia is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions reducing the available supply of coffee in the country. Nevertheless, Peru is enjoying a good year, with exports of all forms of coffee expanding by 6.1% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 to 4.05 million bags from 3.82 million bags in the same period a year ago.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 2.7% to 3.25 million bags in August 2022 but were down 1.5% to 40.86 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22. Indonesia was the origin behind the uptick for August, with its exports growing by 20.1% to 0.65 million bags from 0.54 million bags in August 2021. However, the country is also the main reason behind the negative cumulative growth of the region for the season so far: exports of all forms of coffee are down 17.8% to 6.24 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 as compared with 7.59 million bags in the same period a year ago. Vietnam, the region’s biggest producer and export, made a margin gain in August, with the origin’s exports increasing by 0.1% to 1.89 million bags, bringing the year’s total (October 2021 to August 2022) to 26.6 million bags, up 1.8% year-on-year. India’s shipments were down 6.0% in August 2022 to 0.57 million bags, however the total for the first 11 months remains up at 8.5%, 6.64 million bags versus 6.12 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 11.9% to 1.24 million bags in August 2022 from 1.4 million bags in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 12.48 million bags as compared with 15.44 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Uganda is the main source of the downturn for the region in August, with its exports falling by 28.5% to 0.5 million bags as compared to 0.7 million bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is also down, decreasing by 23.0% to 5.35 million bags from 6.94 million bags in the same period a year ago. The decrease in exports was mainly due to the impact of drought in most of the coffee growing regions, which led to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda, and hence lower output.

In August 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 7.4% to 1.19 million bags as compared with 1.29 million in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports are down 13.0%, totalling 15.07 million bags as compared with 17.34 million bags in October–August 2020/21. The region’s sharp downturn in August was due Guatemala and Honduras, down 27.8% and 41.3%, respectively. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, the total exports are 3.16 million bags and 4.53 million bags, for the two origins, respectively, down 15.6% and 24.0%. The reason for the poor performance of the two origins has already been explained in the “Exports by Coffee Groups” section above.

Production and Consumption
The provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year. World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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“Working on this project has been a highlight of this year so far. We are committed to the equality of the genders in this industry and believe that this auction will impact the lives of the female producers in Nicaragua. We can’t wait to see the auction results of these amazing coffees,” said Kathia Lopez Rosa, ACE auction manager.

The participation of women in the economy and social programmes has been highly active thanks to the Nicaraguan Government’s promotion of gender and family-focused politics. According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2021, Nicaragua ranks first in gender equality in all Latin America and 12th in the world; democratically establishing participation of Nicaraguan women and men, to create conditions that generate improvements in gender equity in areas such as education, health, employment, access and control to productive economic resources, eradication of violence and political participation.

Merling Presa Ramos, general manager of PRODECOOP expressed her enthusiasm to be part of the programme in Nicaragua, “We feel so proud to be part of the first auction in Nicaragua that will award the work of female producers in our country. We are grateful that CONATRADEC and ACE have given us this tool that will be empowering our producers.”

Agriculture is one of the fundamental pillars of the Nicaraguan economy, with coffee production as one of the main categories in the country’s exportations. Over 14,236 women are producers in this category, dedicating their efforts towards coffee production and plantation.  Women have been vital contributors, bringing innovation and creativity to their communities, cooperatives, and entrepreneurial economies. Through women’s leadership, Nicaragua has seen changes in cultural and social patterns for equality, which has, in turn, helped to empower more women.

The post Women in the Nicaraguan coffee industry celebrated in auction appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Aldea Global will use the joint eight-year loan to construct and equip its new dry coffee mill with cutting edge technology, resulting in better coffee quality and productivity and an increase in incomes for 6,200 of Aldea’s farmers. The first phase of the project will focus on installation of the new dry mill, which will enable the association to increase its processing capacity while storing coffee in temperature controlled silos. In the second phase, a new wet mill technology will be installed to reduce water consumption, increase processing capacity and integrate management of the coffee processing chain from cherries to green coffee beans for export. This represents a paradigm shift for smallholder producers in Nicaragua, who traditionally undertake wet milling on their farms.

Founded in 1992, Aldea Global supports its coffee farmer members with access to markets, affordable finance, technical assistance in areas such as agroforestry for coffee through its mobile app Aldea Tech. Using technology and modern approaches to coffee production and processing, Aldea Global continues to support small producers to be more competitive in the market and to increase their earnings. The association also has a strong gender focus.

Warren Armstrong, chief executive officer of Aldea Global, said: “This joint investment from Oikocredit and IDH is truly welcome. The new state-of-the-art specialty coffee dry mill will increase milling yields and cupping quality and result in higher premiums for our fair trade members. The second stage wet mill will reduce environmental contamination from more than 4,000 small farmers’ wet mills located near streams by bringing their coffee cherries to process at Aldea Global. And process automation will highlight Nicaraguan coffee’s premium quality flavours: floral, citrus and dark chocolate.”

Miguel Tamayo Maertens, IDH Farmfit Fund’s investment director, said: “We are very pleased with the partnership with Oikocredit. With this co-investment project, we aim to strengthen Aldea Global’s positioning in the specialty coffee sector and support the association in providing additional value to its smallholder coffee farmer members. This will lead to improved coffee quality, increase farmer incomes and positively impact their lives.”

Jose Augusto Cordón, Oikocredit’s senior investment officer, said: “We are very glad to strengthen our support for Aldea Global, an Oikocredit partner since 2007, with this new long-term investment. The benefits for the smallholders are clear, with improvements in efficiency and quality translated into better incomes and higher environmental standards. In addition, our first collaboration in Latin America with IDH Farmfit Fund has been an excellent experience, and we hope to continue strengthening our cooperation with them.”

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Over the last six months, coffee prices have recorded a steady increase in monthly averages despite a few daily slumps. Relatively firm prices seem to encourage sales as world coffee exports grew in March, as did shipments in the first half of coffee year 2020-21. However, cumulative exports from April 2020 to March 2021 are provisionally estimated to decrease versus April 2019 to March 2020. According to the ICO, world consumption for coffee year 2020-21 is projected to increase 1.3% in coffee year 2019-20 but remain 2% below total production in coffee year 2020-21.

Coffee prices continued their upward trend as the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator rose to 122.03 US cents/lb in April, 1.4% higher than in March 2021 and 12% higher than in April 2020. This level also represents the sixth consecutive month of increase and the highest monthly average in over three and a half years. In April, the daily composite indicator fluctuated between 114.22 and 130.87 US cents/lb. The linear trend has gotten steeper every consecutive month since the start of the coffee year in October 2020. Market fundamentals are one of the main drivers of the current price trends as the imbalance between consumption and total production is getting smaller. Arabica supplies are expected to tighten in the near future, with Brazil’s production projected to decline by more than 30% in its 2021-22 off-year crop. Moreover, various restrictions due to the ongoing pandemic affecting particularly the movement of population are expected to be gradually eased soon.

Average prices for all group indicators increased in April. Prices for Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals confirmed their steady upwards trends since October 2020. Colombia Milds rose by 2.4% to 181.70 US cents/lb and the average price for the Brazilian naturals increased by 1.7% to 124.18 US cents/lb. After slipping in November 2020, the average price for Other Milds regained its upward trend and an increase of 1% was observed in April 2021 to 168.65 US cents/lb against 167.05 US cents/lb in March 2021. The differential between Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 25% to 13.05 US cents/lb and the differential between Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals decreased by 0.9%.

As for the Robusta group, mixed price movements have been observed since October 2020. However, an increase of 0.8% to 74.47 US cents/lb was recorded in April 2021 in comparison with 73.86 US cents/lb in March 2021. Nevertheless, this monthly average price for Robusta is 16% higher than the level of 63.97 US cents/lb recorded in April 2020. The differential between Colombian Milds and Robusta increased by 3.5% to 107.23 US cents/lb. In April, the arbitrage between Arabica and Robusta coffees, as measured on the New York and London futures markets, increased by 4.7% to 71.01 US cents/lb.

Intra-day volatility of the ICO composite indicator price decreased from 7.7% in March 2021 to 7.3% in April. The volatility for all indicators decreased in April, with Robusta experiencing the highest decrease of 1.1%. While the volatility of the London Futures market has decreased by 1.5% to 7% in April, it has remained unchanged in the New York Futures market at 9.3%, the same level recorded in March. In April, certified stocks of Arabica for New York Futures exchange were 2.07 million bags and certified stocks of Robusta coffee for the London Futures Exchange were 2.53 million bags, representing an increase by 5% and 1% respectively. Total production in coffee year 2020-21 is estimated to rise by 0.5% to 169.63 million bags, with Arabica production increasing by 2.6% to 99.42 million bags.

The production of Robusta coffee is expected to decrease by 2.4% to 70.21 million bags. At the regional level, a slight decrease of 0.8% is expected for Africa at 18.54 million bags in coffee year 2020-21 in comparison with 18.68 million bags in the previous coffee year. Production for Asia & Oceania is forecast to fall by 1.1% from 49.48 million bags in 2019-20 to 48.95 million in 2020-21. Production for Mexico & Central America is expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% at 19.54 million bags against 19.56 million bags in coffee year 2019-20. An increase of 1.8% in production is expected from South America at 82.59 million bags, compared with 81.12 million bags in 2019-20.

World coffee consumption is projected to increase by 1.3% to 166.34 million bags in 2020-21 compared to 164.20 million bags for coffee year 2019-20. The negative impact on coffee consumption experienced during coffee year 2019-20 with the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic is fading as consumption is regaining its normal trend. Consumption in importing countries and domestic consumption in exporting countries is expected to grow by 1.3% and 1.4% respectively. Consumption in Africa is expected to increase by 1.8% at 12.24 million bags. Consumption in Asia & Oceania will increase by 1.4% at 36.50 million bags. In the region of Mexico and Central America, consumption is expected to increase by 0.7% at 5.36 million bags. As a result, the surplus of total production over world consumption is expected to be reduced at 3.28 million bags, compared with 4.6 million bags in the previous coffee year.

Global exports in March 2021 totalled 11.94 million bags, compared with 11.66 million bags in March 2020. Exports in the first half of coffee year 2020-21 reached 65.4 million bags, representing an increase of 3.5% compared to 63.2 million bags during the same period in coffee year 2019-20. Cumulative exports of Colombian Milds over the first half of coffee year 2020-21 increased by 2.6% to 7.75 million bags, while exports of Other Milds decreased by 8.3% to 10.4 million bags from 11.35 million bags in 2019-20. Total exports of Brazilian Naturals increased by 19.2% to 23.66 million bags, compared to 19.84 million bags recorded over the first six months of coffee year 2019-20. Shipments of Robusta over half of coffee year 2020-21 fell by 3.5% to 23.59 million bags.

The increase in exports was primarily driven by shipments of green coffee, which rose 4.3% to 59.32 million bags in the first half of the coffee year compared to the same period in the previous year. Exports of roasted coffee fell by an estimated 4% to 336,172 bags, while those of soluble coffee fell by 3.4% to 5.72 million bags. In regional terms, exports of all forms of coffee from Africa in the first half of coffee year 2020-21 decreased by 8.9% to 5.96 million bags, as shipments from Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya declined by 28.5%, 49% and 9.5% respectively. Uganda, the largest regional exporter, has recorded an increase of 11.5% to 2.8 million bags. It should be noted that in March 2021, exports of Uganda totalled 572,839 bags, its highest volume of exports in a single month, generating over USD 53.55 million in export value.

Asia & Oceania’s coffee exports declined by 6.3% to 19.3 million bags in October 2020 to March 2021. Vietnam’s exports during this period declined by 13.2% to 12.58 million bags, while Indonesia’s shipments increased by 20.2% to 3.7 million bags. Exports from India, the region’s third largest producer, recorded a small decrease of 0.5% to 2.55 million bags compared to 2.56 million bags in 2019-20.

Compared to the first six months of coffee year 2019-20, exports from Mexico & Central America fell by 12.2% to 6.06 million bags as parts of the region have not yet recovered from the severe impact of hurricanes Iota and Eta. Notably, shipments from Honduras, the region’s largest producer, decreased by 20.9% to 2.19 million bags while those from Nicaragua fell by 12.7% to 1.05 million bags. Guatemala’s exports declined by 15.9% to 1.05 million bags. Total exports of Costa Rica and El Salvador also declined by 7.2% and 28.2%, respectively. Indications of a recovery have nevertheless been observed in recent months, particularly in Honduras which exported 807,506 bags of coffee in March 2021, an increase of 4.5% compared to March 2020.

From October 2020 to March 2021, South America’s exports increased by 17% to 33.74 million bags. During this period, exports of all forms of coffee from Brazil rose by 23.3% to 24.66 million bags. Brazil is nearing the end of its 2020-21 crop year, which was an on-year for its Arabica production. Exports from Colombia increased by 3.5% to 7.09 million bags. Ecuador recorded a relatively stable level of its exports at 1.75 million bags.

For the full ICO April green coffee report, visit: www.ico.org.

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Covid 19 has been a double-edged sword for Fincas Mierisch who replaced time they’d normally spend hosting visitors in origin with organising the Los Favoritos auction.

“Every year our existing clients, and some new clients, ask us whether Los Favoritos was going to take place. Even our own team would always ask us at the beginning of every harvest if Los Favoritos was taking place that year. The demand we’ve received over the past five years has been overwhelming. This support and interest final reached its peak last year during the pandemic, surprisingly, so we could no longer keep the public waiting,” said farm director Eleane Mierisch, whose family has been farming coffee on the mountains of Matagalpa and Jinotega in Nicaragua since 1908.

Born in 2013, Los Favoritos auction has been an initiative to show the world the exquisiteness and allure of coffees produced by Fincas Mierisch and Nicaragua, as an origin, in general. A lot has changed since then, however. New this year are fermentation techniques that the team has recently started applying to their coffees. The group has also shifted their focus to a “small lots, big flavours” motto, capping the size of the auction lots to a maximum of 138kg (or 4 x 34.5kg boxes per lot). There is also a minimum cup score of 88 points to enter the auction.

“The pandemic also caused a shift in many producers to move away from quality and instead focus on volume. We want to be examples that specialty coffee is economically sustainable for producers. But to also highlight that we focus on specialty coffee because it is our passion. Life is too short to not be doing what you love. And we love specialty coffee,” said Eleane Mierisch.

Alliance for Coffee Excellence Global Coffee Centers are now evaluating the coffees to determine the greatest hits for the auction. Due to limited supply, the ACE encourages registering for a sample set in advance at: allianceforcoffeeexcellence.org/product/los-favoritos-2021-sample-set.

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