The prize was awarded by an independent international jury of nine experts who chose the best among the winners of the 9 single-origins that make up the recipe of the unique illy blend: Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua and Rwanda.

The SMS Cluster ECOM of Nicaragua won the Coffee Lovers’ Choice award, voted for by consumers around the world who in the weeks leading up to the event blindly tasted the same samples in illy coffees.

“For the second year in a row, a Brazilian company that adopts regenerative practices has given us the best coffee in the world. In the Fazenda Serra do Boné, the health of the soil, biodiversity, and water sources are preserved thanks to the use of organic fertilizers, biological control and the reuse of processing by-products,” said Andrea Illy, chairman of illycaffè. “We are once again noticing important signs that confirm how regenerative agriculture is the right path towards a more resilient production capable of guaranteeing productivity and superior quality, of which coffee is the forerunner with the highest growth rates.”

The panel of judges who selected the Best of the Best included Massimo Bottura, chef patron of Osteria Francescana and founder of Food for Soul; Viki Geunes, chef-owner of three-Michelin-starred Zilte in Antwerp; Felipe Rodriguez, head chef at São Paulo’s Rosewood Complex; Vanúsia Nogueira, executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO); Q Grader professional tasters Felipe Isaza and Dessalegn Oljirra Gemeda; journalists Vanessa Zocchetti (Madame Figaro), Sebastian Späth (Falstaff), and Josh Condon (Robb Report).

The jury described Fazenda Serra do Boné’s award-winning coffee as creamy, sweet, and full-bodied, with an elegant balance of fresh fruit aromas, caramel undertones, subtle hints of brown sugar, and a persistent chocolate finish with floral notes of jasmine – a beautifully complex coffee that perfectly embodies its Brazilian origin.

This year’s event attracted a diverse group of public figures, including Francis Ford Coppola, Marina Abramović, Pat Cleveland, Alex Riviere, Chiara Maci, Candela Pelizza, Tamu McPherson, Sveva Alviti, Christoph Leitner, Simon e Marina Ksandr, Nick Lowry, Maddy Devita, Justine Martilotti, and Brittany Leigh Ball. The celebration of coffee excellence took place at a gala dinner at Peak in Hudson Yards, hosted by Spanish TV journalist Olivia Frejus Lloyd.

Beyond awards, the Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award fosters global discussions on coffee sustainability. The day began at the United Nations headquarters in New York where representatives from across the coffee supply chain gathered for a roundtable discussion titled “Global Coffee Alliance: Mobilizing a Public-Private Fund to Fight Climate Change.” The panel, moderated by Clare Reichenbach, CEO of the James Beard Foundation, featured chairman Andrea Illy, Italian Ambassador to the UN, Maurizio Massari; executive director of the ICO, Vanúsia Nogueira; chef and UNEP Goodwill Ambassador, Massimo Bottura; UNIDO project manager, Andrea De Marco; senior director of sustainable coffee at Conservation International, Raina Lang; and UNEP director for the New York office, Jamil Ahmad; who explored initiatives to advance sustainable coffee production in the face of climate challenges.

The panel emphasised the urgent need to transition coffee cultivation to a regenerative model to enhance resilience, improve farmer livelihoods, and reduce environmental impact. A major focus was on establishing a USD $10 billion public-private fund over the next decade, which will target smallholder coffee farmers in tropical regions heavily impacted by climate change.

“Since Expo 2015, we have worked tirelessly to build a framework to protect coffee for generations to come,” said Andrea Illy. “Regenerative agriculture has shown it can produce high yields and quality while restoring natural resources. We must act quickly to scale these solutions globally through an international fund. It is essential we implement regenerative solutions now, as we see they work and deliver positive outcomes.”

Throughout the discussion, panelists underscored the importance of uniting stakeholders from governments, international organisations, and the private sector to bring impactful, lasting change to coffee-growing communities. Reichenbach highlighted that consumer awareness and participation are key drivers in the industry’s sustainability journey.

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Producers from nine countries – Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua, and Rwanda – have earned spots in the final, with three producers representing each country. The international jury will gather in New York on 12 November to taste and evaluate the coffees, which were selected by illycaffè’s quality laboratories based on rigorous quality and sustainability criteria throughout the 2023/2024 harvest.

The Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award 2024 jury includes Massimo Bottura, chef patron of Osteria Francescana and Casa Maria Luigia and founder of Food for Soul, a non-profit organization combatting food waste and social isolation. In recognition of his humanitarian and environmental efforts, Bottura was appointed goodwill ambassador for the United Nations Environment Programme in 2020 and most recently as SDG Advocate. In 2020 Osteria Francescana was awarded the prestigious Michelin Green Star for sustainability; Viki Geunes, chef and owner of restaurant Zilte in Antwerp, holder of three Michelin stars, known for his creative and visually stunning dishes; Felipe Rodrigues, head chef of the Rosewood Complex in São Paulo and one of South America’s leading chefs, with experience working under top European and Peruvian chefs.

Three professional tasters, Vanúsia Nogueira, executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and daughter of coffee producer, with extensive experience in quality coffee markets; Felipe Isaza, Arabica Q Grader and member of the Board of Directors of the Coffee Quality Institute, who has served as an international juror at numerous tastings; Dessalegn Oljirra Gemeda, Ethiopian coffee consultant and Q Grader, with a background working for the Ethiopian Coffee & Tea Authority, Ethiopian Coffee Exchange, and Oxfam.

And three expert journalists: Vanessa Zocchetti, editor-in-chief of the lifestyle section of Madame Figaro, who writes on gastronomy and design, Sebastian Späth, editor-in-chief of Germany´s leading food and lifestyle magazine Falstaff, with a great expertise in art, cuisine, fashion, and design, and Josh Condon, editor-in-chief of Robb Report, a leading luxury magazine.

This multidisciplinary jury combines culinary, technical and journalistic expertise to assess the complex nuances of the world’s finest coffees and choose the ‘Best of the Best.’

In addition, consumers will have the chance to participate by tasting the 9 finalist coffees and voting for their favourite in a series of blind tastings held at illy flagship stores worldwide. The coffee with the most votes will receive the ‘Coffee Lovers’ Choice’ award.

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Throughout the year, illycaffè’s quality laboratories analysed samples from the 2023/2024 harvest, selecting the best batches and producers based on both qualitative and sustainability criteria.

The finalists for this edition come from Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua, and Rwanda.

“Sustainable quality is the result of a process that begins in the coffee plantations and requires constant innovation, research, and training. It means producing high-quality coffee with respect for the environment, biodiversity, human rights, and social well-being. The Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award has become an annual appointment with our best producers worldwide, with whom we have worked hand in hand for decades to ensure a prosperous future for people and the planet,” commented Andrea Illy, chairman of illycaffè.

The 27 finalists for the Ernesto Illy International Award 2024, listed alphabetically by country, are:

Brazil:

• Fazenda São João – Décio Bruxel e Outros
• Fazenda Serra do Boné – Matheus Lopes Sanglard
• Fazenda Vila Oscarlina – Flávio da Costa Figueredo

Costa Rica

• Coopelibertad R.L.
• CoopeSabalito R.L.
• Finca San Carlos de Marespi S.A.

El Salvador

• Finca Agua Caliente – J.J. Borja Nathan S.A.
• Finca Bolívar – Matorral de S.A. de C.V.
• Finca San Rafael – Comercial Larin S.A. DE C.V.

Ethiopia

• Darimo Washing Station Plc – Asma International Business Pvt Ltd
• Gera Tracon Washing Station Plc – Tracon Trading P.L.C.
• Jemila Amdela Washing Station Plc – Legesse Sherefa Pvt Ltd Co.

Guatemala

• Finca Danilandia – Luis Arimany Monzón
• Finca Santa Leonarda – Plantaciones Agropecuarias S.A.
• Pequeños Productores Santa Cruz Naranjo

Honduras

• Finca Diego Paz – Diego Paz Paz
• Finca Don Miguel – Miguel Angel Pérez Guevara
• Finca El Carmen – Jorge Aníbal Peña Maldonado

India

• Coovercolly Estate – Tata Consumer Products Ltd.
• Kajjehally Estate – S. Vasudevan
• Margolly Estate – Tata Consumer Products Ltd.

Nicaragua

• Finca Santa Ana – Aida Lila Zeledón Palacios
• Grupo productores – Olam Nicaragua
• SMS Cluster ECOM Nicaragua

Rwanda

• Karenge Coffee Washing Station
• Kibirizi Coffee Washing Station
• Rwinyoni Coffee Washing Station

The ranking of each of the nine finalist countries will be announced on 12 November at the United Nations in New York during an event where coffee producers will learn who has won the Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award 2024.

The previous edition of the Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award was won for the first time by Brazil, with the São Mateus Agropecuaria farm. This achievement is particularly significant as the coffee was produced using regenerative agricultural practices, which benefit the environment and health while producing exceptionally high-quality coffee.

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Over the course of the six auctions, 21,661 bids were placed from buyers for the 192 winning lots. When the three minute clock struck zero at the end of the final auction, over 2.6 million dollars had been raised. Out of the 706 registered bidders 128 were successful placing the highest bid to own a winning lot.

Costa Rica garnered the highest gross auction amount of USD $655,786, almost $271,000 more than in 2023, although every country improved their totals from 2023. Honduras took home the top price of $136.50lb for its first place coffee. Together the 192 total lots averaged $21.54lb. 2024 was the first year that coffees were divided by processing technique. Natural, washed and experimentally processed coffees were all represented in the winning lots having been separated during the competition.

The full programme began in early Spring in Nicaragua with the call for farmer entries and it ended on Tuesday 13th July with Mexico holding its final very busy auction. Each country held a full 3-week competition to determine which coffees would score high enough to be awarded a CoE and sold online to the highest bidder. Coffees receiving a CoE award undergo intense scrutiny from both a national jury and an international jury during the competition process. The lots being auctioned scored between the minimum required score of 87 to a high of 93.62.  A total of 172 professional cuppers from 24 countries scored the winners through the multiple phases of the competition process. A total of 39 lots scored over 90 points, 31 of the winning farms are owned by women and 37 are owned by farmers experiencing their first Cup of Excellence competition.

Sample sets of the winners were sent out to roasters wanting to score the coffees again at their place of business. Almost 500 complete sets of winning lots were sent to companies in North America, the Middle East, Europe and Asia. Each lot was also processed to meticulous standards and vacuum packed before the auctions occurred.

Honduras celebrated its 20th anniversary this year. Guatemala held its first CoE in 2001, Nicaragua in 2002, El Salvador in 2003, Costa Rica in 2007 and Mexico in 2012. Identification of farmers, infrastructure development, technical training and quality improvement are often the result of the Cup of Excellence programme.

For more information contact support@cupofexcellence.org

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Several producers have gained international fame after winning. Marysabel Caballero, Oscar Tinoco, Oscar Ramírez, and the current champion Benjamín Paz are held in high esteem among buyers. Some have now passed this legacy on to their children.

In 2017 winning producer, Oscar Daniel Ramírez, represented the community of Las Delicias in Danlí, El Paraíso (eastern zone of Honduras). This attracted the attention of the president of the Republic who then brought electricity to the entire community.

“Entire communities are often affected by a resident farmer that wins and in each competition there are discoveries of really great, mostly unknown farmers. Six farmers were rewarded this year that had never entered the competition,” indicated Erwin Mierisch, executive director of the Cup of Excellence programme.

Joaquina Montoya Alvarado of Intibucá agrees, “This is for my children and my community, I have worked hard during the past years and winning the 3rd place is an honour and a lesson for my kids that reward is possible if they work hard.”

The Department of Santa Bárbara, with the villages of El Cedral, Las Flores, and El Cielito, has reached first place in 10 of the 20 competitions, attracting global buyers to the region. 2024 is no exception with the entire village of El Cedral coming together in grand celebration of the 22 wins along with first place.

Honduras officials are at the forefront of developing quality technical education. The first ‘Women and Youth Leadership Forum’ was held in conjunction with the competition. ‘Renovate Without Stopping Production’, led by Instituto Hondureño del Café which aims to improve ageing farms was instrumental” explained Nestor Meneses, IHCAFE’s CoE Coordinator. “This programme supports producer’s efforts to maintain quality and consistency in processing. But it is the life stories, the resilience, and the stoicism when farmers face difficulties that always stand out. Several producers have had to overcome huge health or economic challenges, sometimes temporarily leaving the country to support their families,” he continued.

For samples, regional cuppings and auction information log on to allianceforcoffeeexcellence.org.

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The I-CIP averaged 216.89 US cents/lb in April, a 16.4% increase from March 2024. The I-CIP posted a median value of 221.99 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 193.39 and 235.50 US cents/lb. The April 2024 I-CIP is above the April 2023 I-CIP by 21.5%, with the 12-month rolling average at 172.01 US cents/lb. The I-CIP grew steadily in April 2024, reaching a 13-year high. Following a similar trend, the Robustas price also hit a 45- year high, reaching its highest level since July 1979, when it averaged 195.90 US cents/lb.

In the first half of April 2024, the I-CIP surged 21.8% from 193.39 to 235.50 US cents/lb on the back of heavy rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil, which will affect the country’s 2024/25 supply. Vietnam also continues to face supply difficulties on the back of poor harvests in coffee years 2022/23 and 2023/24. On 26 March, Vietnam’s agriculture department projected that its national coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year could drop by –20% to 1.472 million metric tonnes, the lowest in four years, due to drought. This was reflected in the surging domestic Robusta green bean price in the country, which rose to over 132,000 VND/KG by 26 April from an average of 80,000 VND/kg on 15 February 2024 and 61,000 VND/kg in mid-November 2023. The surge was broken on 19 April on the back of three factors: (i) recovery of ICE warehouse stocks; (ii) profit taking on the paper market (the net long position on the ICE’s Europe market retreated by 5,042 lots between 16 and 23 April 2024); and (iii) the strengthening dollar (moving from 5.29 Real to 1 US$ on 16 April to 5.12 Real to 1US$ on 30 April). As a result, the I-CIP fell to 218.10 US cents/lb by 30 April.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 15.0% and 14.8%, reaching 241.80 and 239.73 US cents/lb, respectively, in April 2024. The Brazilian Naturals presented the strongest increase amongst all coffee groups, at 17.8%, reaching an average of 218.77 US cents/lb. The Robustas grew by 16.8% to 193.65 US cents/lb in April 2024, the highest level in 45 years. ICE’s London market was also a strong driver of the growth, increasing by 18.5% to 176.04 US cents/lb, whilst the New York Futures market expanded by 18.1% to 217.97 US cents/lb, a 20-month high.

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential expanded from 1.41 to 2.07 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential contracted 6.0% to 23.03 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential expanded 8.4% from March to April 2024, averaging 48.14 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 9.2% reaching 20.96 US cents/lb. However, the Other Milds–Robustas and the Brazilian Naturals– Robustas differentials both expanded 7.1% and 26.1%, averaging 46.07 and 25.11 US cents/lb, respectively, in April 2024.

The downtrend of the Arabica and Robusta arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, is now over two years long, falling from 130.30 US cents/lb in April 2022 to 41.93 US cents/lb in April 2024, i.e. a 67.8% decline. However, measured against March 2024, the arbitrage expanded by 16.3% in April 2024.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased by 0.9 percentage points to 8.0% between March and April 2024. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility increased to 8.5% and 8.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility grew by 0.9 percentage points to 9.0% from March to April 2024. The Robustas presented an average volatility of 9.1% for the month of April. The London Futures market’s volatility also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.7%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the same direction to that of London, reaching 9.1%, a 0.5 percentage point increase.

The London certified stocks expanded by 27.4% to 0.63 million 60-kg bags. Certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.64 million 60-kg bags, a 1.7% increase since March 2024.

Exports by coffee groups – green beans

Global green bean exports in March 2024 totalled 11.87 million bags, as compared with 10.85 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 9.4%. As a result, the cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to March is 62.64 million bags, as compared with 56.36 million bags over the same period a year ago, up 11.1%. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas were the two main groups responsible for the overall strong growth observed in March 2024, together accounting for 91.5% of the 1.02-million-bag net gain in total exports. This further consolidated their already-dominant positions, increasing their combined share of the total exports to 72.5% in March 2024 as compared to 70.8% in March 2023. For the year to date, the combined share is an even higher 73.4%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 1.6% in March 2024 to 2.19 million bags from 2.22 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the growth rate of the cumulative volume decreased to 4.2% in the first six months of coffee year 2023/24 to 9.87 million bags, as compared with the 6.0% growth rate in the first five months. In March 2024, 15 of the 29 origins in this coffee group saw their exports fall, with Costa Rica, Guatemala, Laos and Uganda suffering the largest absolute losses. On the opposite side, Ethiopia, Honduras, Papua New Guinea and Peru saw the highest absolute net gains.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in March 2024, rising by 19.0% to 3.57 million bags from 3.0 million bags in March 2023. For the first six months of coffee year 2023/24, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 21.36 million bags, up 17.5% from 18.19 million bags over the same period a year ago. The sharp positive growth rate stems from the 16.1% increase in exports of the Brazilian Naturals from Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of this group of coffee, which rose to 3.07 million bags in March 2024 from 2.64 million bags in March 2023.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 12.8% to 1.07 million bags in March 2024 from 0.95 million bags in March 2023. As a result, exports of the Colombian Milds for the first six months of coffee year 2023/24 are up 11.5% at 6.25 million bags, as compared with 5.6 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2022/23. The double-digit growths, for both the current month and coffee year to date, are a consequence of the 11.9% weather-driven fall in exports in coffee year 2022/23 and subsequent normalization of supply conditions in Colombia, the largest producer and exporter of the Colombian Milds. For the current month and cumulative total to March 2024, the country’s exports of the Colombian Milds are up 12.4% and 13.1%, respectively.

Green bean exports of the Robustas were up 7.8% to 5.04 million bags in March 2024 from 4.68 million bags in March 2023. The cumulative total for the first six months of coffee year 2023/24 is up 8.9%, at 25.16 million bags, as compared with 23.1 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2022/23. The main driver of March’s Robustas increase was Brazil, which shipped 0.85 million bags as compared with 0.11 million bags in March 2023, up 686.1%.

Exports by regions – all forms of coffee

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania decreased by 9.7% to 4.54 million bags in March 2024. The two main sources of the near double-digit downturn are Indonesia and Vietnam, which saw their exports fall by 33.5% and 10.2%, respectively, to 0.31 million bags and 3.22 million bags in March 2024. As a result, Indonesia’s exports to date in coffee year 2023/24 are down 21.8% at 3.04 million bags, the lowest level since coffee year 2018/19. The fundamental reason behind the fall is the shortage of local supply due to the poor harvest in coffee year 2023/24, which is estimated at 10.0 million bags as compared with 11.98 million bags in the previous coffee year. Vietnam’s latest performance is mitigated by the unusually high exports seen in March 2023, when the country shipped 3.58 million bags, the second highest March exports on record. To put this into perspective, the March 2024 exports of 3.22 million bags are above the average March volume from 2019 to 2023 (3.12 million bags).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 12.6% to 1.19 million bags in March 2024 from 1.06 million bags in March 2023. As a result, the cumulative total of 6.22 million bags for the first six months of coffee year 2023/24 is up 0.6% as compared with the 6.18 million bags shipped in coffee year 2022/23. Ethiopia was the driving force behind the region’s growth in March 2024, with its own exports having increased by 112.8% to 0.38 million bags from 0.18 million bags in March 2023. The size of the rebound is due to a favourable base effect and a comparative normalization of market circumstances. Contract disputes arising from a mismatch between local purchasing prices and global market prices had previously affected the volume of exports, leading March 2023’s shipment to be the lowest since 2012.

In March 2024, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 33.1% to 5.49 million bags. As a result, the cumulative total of 33.56 million bags for the first six months of coffee year 2023/24 is up 28.7% as compared with the 26.07 million bags shipped in coffee year 2022/23. The source of the strong positive growth is Brazil, which saw its exports increase by 38.8% in March 2024 to 4.31 million bags. The size of the latest growth of Brazil’s export volume remains a reaction to the 20.2% fall in the March 2023 exports (3.1 million bags). Fundamentally, South America’s and Brazil’s strong export performance reflects Brazil’s good harvests in coffee years 2022/23 and 2023/24, estimated to be up by 8.4% and 9.2%, respectively.

In March 2024, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 1.9% to 1.78 million bags, as compared with 1.82 million in March 2023. As a result, the cumulative total exports are down 3.0% from October 2023 to March 2024 at 5.74 million bags, as compared with 5.91 million bags for the same period a year ago.

Exports of coffee by forms

Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 4.8% in March 2024 to 1.06 million bags from 1.11 million bags in March 2023. In the first six months of coffee year 2023/24, a total of 6.16 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 4.0% from the 5.92 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.9% in March 2024, down from 9.5% in the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee in March 2024, having shipped 0.35 million bags.

Exports of roasted beans were up 11.5% in March 2024 to 68,467 bags, as compared with 61,396 bags in March 2023. The cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to March 2024 was 0.37 million bags, as compared with 0.36 million bags in same period a year ago.

For the full report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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“The addition of this site to our local operational network reflects LDC’s long-term commitment to Honduras over the past 13 years, as a strategic market for our coffee origination and processing activities,” said Juan José Blanchard, LDC’s Group COO and head of Latin America. “The new plant will enable us to expand our presence and bring us closer to producers in the region, thereby contributing to our ongoing efforts to drive product traceability from plantation to customers and consumers.”

Employing some 20 people, generating dozens of additional indirect jobs in nearby communities, and spanning an area of 1,200 m², the new facility has a daily capacity to dry some 330 tons of parchment coffee. It is powered by three centrifuges and two ovens, fueled by biomass using coffee husks from LDC’s Villanueva plant, thus contributing to our global efforts toward more sustainable operations. The dried coffee is packaged using the advanced big bags storage system, for greater agility and safety during subsequent transportation to LDC’s Villanueva plant for processing, before export to various destinations worldwide.

“The new plant’s proximity to the country’s coffee plantations makes it an attractive alternative for local coffee growers, by giving them the possibility to market their coffee and access an excellent drying service, all in one place. We look forward to further strengthening our partnership with local coffee growers, leveraging LDC’s 35 years of experience in coffee and 13 in Honduras,” said Pablo Pereyra, LDC’s Head of Coffee for South & West Latin America.

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The award, named after the visionary leader of illycaffè and the son of the company’s founder, celebrates the work that the Trieste, Italy-based company has been doing every day for the last 30 years, side-by-side with coffee farmers, to offer the best possible sustainable coffee. The award was presented to the winner by illycaffè chairman Andrea Illy during an event held at the New York Public Library in New York.

EIICA celebrates the finest Arabica coffees sourced from all over the world. This event aims to recognize growers for the quality coffee they tirelessly work to produce. The award was assigned by an independent panel of nine experts who examined the best batches from the 2022-2023 harvest through a blind tasting of nine coffees from the nine finalist countries: Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua, and Rwanda. Prior to being evaluated by the panel, each batch of coffee was analysed by illycaffè’s quality control labs and rated in terms of richness and aromatic complexity, the elegance and balance of its flavour and intensity of its aroma.

Guatemala’s Finca Danilandia di Luis Arimany Mondonico won the Coffee Lovers’ Choice Award, assigned by a panel of consumers who, in the weeks prior to the event, carried out blind taste tests of the coffee samples in illy cafés in Trieste, Milan, Paris, London, Sao Paolo and New York and ranked their preferences.

“The absolute victory of the Brazilian coffee coming from regenerative agriculture – chosen blindly among the nine best coffees in the world – fills me with joy. Indeed, the history of the Ernesto Illy Award began in Brazil in 1991 and this confirms that the rewards received, by illycaffè for having transformed Brazil from a leader in quantity to a leader in quality are well-deserved,” said Andrea Illy. “After more than 25 years of neverending and tireless work by our team of agronomists and the University of Coffee, the leap has finally happened thanks to regenerative agriculture, which we decided to develop in 2018 for the benefits it brings to the environment and everyone’s health.”

The panel that voted for the Best of the Best award included Guatemala’s professional taster Silvia Escobar; the President of Federação dos Cafeicultores do Cerrado, Brasilian Glaucio De Castro; the director of the CoffeeLab quality laboratory, Indian Sunalini Narayan Menon; chef Ricard Camarena, who has been awarded two Michelin stars and a green star for his dedication to sustainability at his Ricard Camarena Restaurant in Valencia; American chefs Carrie and Rupert Blease, who manage the Michelin-starred Lord Stanley restaurant in San Francisco; Andrea Aprea, a Michelin-starred chef with a restaurant bearing his name in Milan; French writer and journalist Adelaide de Clermont-Tonnere, editor-in-chief of Point de Vue magazine; Inga Griese, founder and editor-in-chief of ICON, the style supplement of the German newspaper Welt Am Sonntag; Angelina Villa Clarke, a journalist contributing to prestigious English-language publications including Forbes.

Commenting on the winning coffee, the jury said, “This year’s Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award winner is a rounded, wholesome, and fully bodied cup, with rich yet mellow flavors of a balance of chocolate, caramel, brown sugar, and toasted almonds on a bed of refined brightness, with a lingering finish of mild, gentle, yet harmonious sweetness. It truly represents the finest taste characteristics of its origin.”

Martha Stewart, Matilda De Angelis, Pat Cleveland, Coco Rocha, Candela Pelizza, Tamu Mc Pherson, Carlo Sestini, Simon and Marina Ksandr, Nick Lowry, Tesa Pesic are some of the celebrities who attended the gala event at the New York Public Library, hosted by chef and TV star Marcus Samuelsson, to celebrate the best coffee producers who work behind the unique illy blend.

The Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award is also an unmissable networking opportunity for all those involved in the coffee industry, from producers to exporters, from traders to institutional representatives. In the morning they all met at the United Nations Headquarters to attend a panel discussion on protecting the future of coffee. Alongside illycaffè chairman Andrea Illy, speakers included Vanusia Nogueira, executive director, International Coffee Organization; Jeffrey Sachs, professor of economy at Columbia University and co-chair at the Regenerative Society Foundation; Oscar Schaps, president of the Latin American division of Stone X Financial Inc; and Glaucio de Castro, president of the Federação dos Cafeicultores do Cerrado Mineiro. (For a full recap of the event at the UN, see the Editor’s Blog: “The time is now” to invest in regenerative agriculture (teaandcoffee.net).

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 153.13 US cents/lb in September, posting a median value of 152.74 US cents/lb and fluctuating between 147.86 and 160.17 US cents/lb.

The Robustas remained at a near-record high in September, staying firmly above the 120.00 US cents/lb mark. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 1.4% and 1.7%, to 184.98 and 183.52 US cents/lb, respectively, in September 2023. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas both contracted by 0.3% and 0.6%, reaching an average of 154.19 and 123.89 US cents/lb, respectively. ICE’s New York market fell by 1.9%, whilst the London Futures market shrank by 2.0%, to 153.55 and 109.14 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential grew 79.1% to 1.46 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 6.4% to 30.79 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential also contracted 2.9% from August to September 2023, averaging 61.09 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals and the Other Milds-Robustas both contracted 8.6 and 4.0%, reaching 29.33 and 59.63 US cents/lb, respectively. However, the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials expanded 0.9%, averaging 30.30 US cents/lb in September 2023.

In September 2023, the Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential fluctuated between positive and negative.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, narrowed by 1.8% to 44.41 US cents/lb in September 2023. This marks the lowest point since October 2019, when arbitrage sat at 44.07 US cents/lb.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP followed a consistent downtrend, reaching 6.3%, a 0.7 percentage point decrease between August and September 2023. The Robustas presented the strongest volatility decrease, with a 1.3 percentage point drop, averaging 7.4% for the month of September. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also contracted to 6.5% and 6.8%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 8.1% from August to September 2023, whilst the London futures market’s volatility also decreased by 2.1 to 7.3%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the same direction as London, retracting by 0.9 percentage points and reaching 7.7% for New York.

The New York and London certified stocks moved in opposite directions, where London grew 25.7% to 0.73 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.49 million 60-kg bags, a 13.8% decrease.

The absence of market participants, as evidenced by the falling exports (see Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans), continued to prevail over the I-CIP, explaining the overarching trajectory of the I-CIP in September. However, currency movements, market sentiments, dwindling supplies, weather and the fundamentals all played their part in the coffee price movements in September, which saw the I-CIP rally, before falling once again due to foreign exchange movements.

From 22 August to 19 September 2023, the I-CIP recovered, increasing from a low of 148.79 to 160.17 US Cents/lb, ie, an increase of 7.6%. This came on the back of reports of heavy rain in Brazil and a continued fall in the certified stocks held at the New York ICE warehouses. Somar Meteorologia, a Brazilian meteorology company, reported on 5 September that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, the country’s largest coffee producing region, received 22.8 mm of rain in the past week, or 308% of the historical average, leading to speculation regarding a delay in the completion of Brazil’s coffee harvest. Meanwhile, ICE’s Arabica inventories fell to a low of 0.49 million bags in September. The impact of these positive factors was more profound on the prices of the Arabicas, particularly the Brazilian Naturals which rallied by 5.3% and 81.%, respectively.

Nevertheless, this rally was halted and reversed by the sharp weakening of the real against the US dollar. From 19 to 29 September the real depreciated by 3.2%, from 4.87 to 5.03, while the I-CIP fell by 7.1% over the same period. Once again, the negative impact was felt relatively more by the Arabicas (-8.1%) and particularly the Brazilian Naturals (-9.3%) as compared with Robustas (-5.9%). The price of the Robustas fell at a relatively slower rate due to Vietnam’s current dwindling supply (see Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee), with supply from the 2023/24 harvest still at least two months away in November at the earliest.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in August 2023 totalled 9.36 million bags, as compared with 9.07 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 3.2%. As a result, the cumulative total for 2022/23 to August is 102.9 million bags, as compared with 108.26 million bags over the same period a year ago, down 5.0%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 9.7% in August 2023 to 1.99 million bags from 2.2 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to fall, decreasing by 12.2% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23 to 20.56 million bags, versus 23.42 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in August 2023, rising by 10.2% to 3.06 million bags. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 31.5 million bags, down 8.0% from 34.22 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly due to changes in Brazil’s total green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also increased in August 2023 (27.6%) to 3.35 million bags from 2.63 million bags in August 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 2.1% to 0.84 million bags in August 2023 from 0.86 million bags in August 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 5.6% in August 2023. This is the fourteenth consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were down 12.5%, at 9.9 million bags, as compared with 11.32 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.47 million bags in August 2023, as compared with 3.22 million bags in August 2022, up 7.3%. This is the fifth consecutive month of positive growth for the Robustas and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were up 4.2%, at 40.94 million bags, as compared with 39.31 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In August 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 13.0% to 4.98 million bags. This is the first positive growth rate for the region since the 0.3% expansion in June 2022. The source of both the positive and strength of growth is Brazil, which saw its exports increase by 24.4% to 3.67 million bags from 2.95 million bags in August 2022. More specifically, it was the Robustas from the origin, which in August increased by 388.1% to 0.7 million bags from 0.14 million bags, that drove the region’s positive growth. The August 2023 exports are Brazil’s highest on record for Robusta coffee, beating the 696,873 bags exported in December 2014.

Fundamentally, the region’s turnaround is due to the recent downturn in Asia and Oceania, especially in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer and exporter. Pointedly, Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of Robustas in South America, and it has been taking advantage of the reduced volume of Robustas coming out of Vietnam. It is pertinent to note that Brazil is the fifth biggest exporter of Robustas in the world, having shipped 1.87 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 as compared with the 25.44 million bags exported from Vietnam or the 4.89 million, 4.28 million and 4.03 million bags from Uganda, India and Indonesia, respectively, the second, third and fourth largest exporters. However, in August 2023, Brazilian Robusta exports were second only to Vietnam with 1.34 million bags. To put this into perspective, in August 2023 Brazil exported the equivalent of four-and-half months’ worth of Robustas in a single month (as measured against the total Robusta exports in coffee year 2021/22).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 10.9% to 1.37 million bags in August 2023 from 1.23 million bags in August 2022. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 10.84 million bags as compared with 12.31 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 1.5%. This is the third consecutive month of positive growth rate for the region. The continued global demand for Robustas, as reflected in the latest cumulative positive growth rates for Robusta green bean exports, is the fundamental source of Africa’s positive export growth rate in August. However, like the situation in South America, the reduced volume from the Asia and Pacific region, and more pointedly Vietnam, explains this growth.

Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, took the opportunity to fill the gap in the market left by Vietnam, increasing its exports by 48.4% to 0.74 million bags in August 2023 from 0.5 million bags in August 2022. This represents the second largest monthly exports on record, just behind the 0.79 million bags exported in March 1973.

In August 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 2.0% to 1.23 million bags as compared with 1.26 million in August 2022. As a result, total exports are down 2.6% from October 2022 to August 2023 at 14.57 million bags, as compared with 14.96 million bags for the same period a year ago. The relatively shallow negative growth rate of the region masked the dynamic changes at the individual country level.

Two origins experienced strong positive growth rates (Honduras and Nicaragua), with a combined 37.2% increase in August 2023, while three others experienced sharp negative growth rates (Costa Rica, Guatemala and Mexico), with a combined 20.5% decrease. Honduras and Nicaragua outperformed both the region and group of coffee (Other Milds) to which they predominantly belong in August. This may reflect their competitive edge over other origins in Mexico and Central America – the average export unit value of Arabica green beans for Honduras and Nicaragua was 157 US cents/lb for coffee years 2017/18–2021/22, while it was on average 63 US cents/lb higher for the others (excluding Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica) at 220 US cents/lb.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 14.9% to 2.72 million bags in August 2023 and but were up 1.3% to 41.28 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23. August’s downturn was mainly due to Vietnam, with exports down 23.6% to 1.44 million bags from 1.98 million bags. This is the lowest month of August exports since the 1.4 million bags shipped in 2012. The decrease can be attributed to the depletion of available supply, reflecting the strength of its exports in the first 10 month of the current coffee year, where between October 2022 and July 2023 Vietnam shipped 25.98 million bags –3.3% higher than the same period in coffee year 2017/18, a record exporting year when the origin shipped 29.73 million bags over the full year.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 4.6% in August 2023 to 0.89 million bags from 9.3 million bags in August 2022. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 10.46 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 5.7% from the 11.09 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.6% in August 2023, down from 9.2% for the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.32 million bags in August 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 39.9% in August 2023 to 58,226 bags, as compared with 96,937 bags in August 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to June 2023 was 0.66 million bags, as compared with 0.77 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The full CRO can be downloaded from the ICO website: icocoffee.org. For further information, contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

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Despite strengthening of the BRL, where conventionally Brazilian Naturals might see an uptick in price, they contracted 11.4% in the month of June, hinting that the current and upcoming favourable weather in the region outweighs the USD/BRL variation. The Robustas, on the other hand, have been supported by a strong London market, where the arbitrage has declined to a two-and-a-half-year low, as the rate of growth outpaces that of the Arabicas. 

Average prices for all group indicators decreased in June 2023, with the Robustas being an exception, gaining 7.8% and averaging 132.13 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 6.6% and 5.8%, to 211.85 and 207.39 US cents/lb, respectively, in June 2023. The Brazilian Naturals contracted by 5.5%, reaching an average of 176.48 US cents/lb. ICE’s New York market fell by 4.7%, whilst the London Futures market grew by 5.9% to 174.54 and 119.23 US cents/lb, respectively. 

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential contracted by 34.5% to 4.46 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds-Robustas differentials both contracted 11.9 % and 23.6% from May to June 2023, averaging 35.36 and 79.72 US cents/lb in the latter month, respectively. The Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential presented a more moderate loss of 7.3%, averaging 30.90 US cents/lb. However, the Other Milds-Robustas and Brazilian Naturals-Robustas both contracted by 22.9% to 75.26 US cents/lb and by 31.0% to 44.36 US cents/lb, respectively. 

In June 2023, the Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential has been narrowing considerably where, in the latter third of June, the differential averaged -2.57 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds declined at rate of 13.4% in June, whilst the Other Milds contracted at the rate of 9.6% for the same month. The faster rate of decline of the Colombian Milds compared to the Other Milds had a knock-on effect for the last seven business days of the month. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential turned negative, making the Other Milds more expensive than the Colombian Milds. This trend feeds into a wider phenomenon, where the Arabica and Robusta prices have been decoupled, with the Robustas benefitting from a price-driven demand substitution for cheaper coffee versus the higher-quality and priced Arabicas. However, it is important to note that only Colombia, Kenya and Tanzania produce Colombian Milds, thereby making any shifts on the demand side more noticeable due to the smaller share of the total Arabica production. Thus, due to strong demand for Robustas in the month of June, they lost a marginal 1.8%, albeit exhibiting the highest monthly average since February 1995. 

The current Arabica-Robusta differentials are at their lowest point since October 2020, where demand for higher end qualities has waned in favour of more competitively priced coffees. Groups of coffee with varying qualities are seeing their differentials tighten throughout the board. This convergence marks a three-and-a-half-year low for the Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals, Colombian Milds-Robustas, Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Other Milds-Robustas differentials. The tightening of the spread between different growths can be attributed to the global increase in interest rates, actioned by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the US Treasury. 

This has the direct effect of making money more expensive to borrow, thereby limiting extensive leverage to coffee supply chain stakeholders as interest rate repayment fees eat disproportionately into operations profits. In turn, this limits how big purchasing budgets can be, with buyers focusing on more competitive origins and shying away from the more expensive growths. The trend of consumers and manufacturers shifting towards cheaper Robustas, due to the high cost of living, and the greater availability of coffee due to the ongoing harvest of the world’s largest Arabica producer (Brazil), may together explain the Arabica differentials being at a three-and-a-half-year low, in addition to a continuous rise in the price of Robustas. 

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, contracted by 22.6% to 50.31 US cents/lb in June 2023 as the Robusta growth rate outstripped the New York Market. This marks the lowest point since November 2020, where arbitrage sat at 52.66 US cents/lb. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP followed a consistent downtrend, reaching 8.1%, a 0.5 percentage point decrease between May and June 2023. The Other Milds and Robustas presented the strongest volatility increases, with a 0.8 percentage point expansion, averaging 11.1% and 8.2% for the month of June. Whilst the Colombian Milds’ and Brazilian Naturals’ volatility contracted to 8.2% and 9.5%, the Robustas’ volatility expanded by 0.8 percentage points to 8.2% from May to June 2023. However, the London and New York futures markets’ volatility moved in the opposite direction from one another, retracting by 0.8 percentage points and reaching 9.6% for New York, whilst the Robusta contraction averaged 8.2% in June 2023, a 0.7 percentage point increase. 

The New York and London certified stocks decreased in tandem by 8.5% and 9.7%, respectively, closing in at 0.60 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.25 million 60-kg bags.  

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans 

Global green bean exports in May 2023 totalled 9.56 million bags, as compared with 9.61 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 0.6%. The downturn was driven by the Colombian Milds and the Brazilian Naturals. This is the sixth consecutive month of negative growth for total exports of green beans since the start of coffee year 2022/23. As a result, the cumulative total for 2022/23 to May is 74.59 million bags, down 5.6% from the year-ago period to 79.01 million bags. 

Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 8.7% in May 2023 to 2.57 million bags from 2.36 million bags in the same period last year. This is the second month of positive growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since March 2022, when it increased by 1.9%. Despite the rebound, the cumulative volume of exports continued to fall, decreasing by 10.5% in the first eight months of coffee year 2022/23 to 13.77 million bags versus 15.38 million bags over the same period in 2021/22. 

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell in May 2023, falling by 14.8% to 2.43 million bags. For the first eight months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 23.4 million bags, down 9.8% from 25.93 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly due to changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also fell in May 2023 (-16.2%) to 2.12 million bags from 2.53 million bags in May 2022. 

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 7.2% to 0.91 million bags in May 2023 from 0.98 million bags in May 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 10.3% in May 2023. This is the eleventh consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to May 2023 were down 14.1%, at 7.28 million bags, as compared with 8.48 million bags in the first eight months of coffee year 2021/22. 

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.65 million bags in May 2023, as compared with 3.42 million bags in May 2022, up 6.8%. In the first eight months of coffee year 2022/23, 30.13 million bags of Robustas were exported as compared with 29.22 million bags in the same period in 2021/22. 

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee 

In May 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 11.5% to 3.47 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 12.29%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 12.2% and 10.6% in May 2023, falling to 2.46 million and 0.85 million bags. In both countries, the availability of supply is the reason behind the decreases in their respective exports. Heavy rain led to a 21% fall in production in May 2023 in Colombia, while Brazil’s supply is relatively tight due to the two consecutive years of below-par harvests, especially in the current 2022/23 season which has been hampered by both frost and droughts. 

Peru is continuing to see its exports fall at a significantly faster rate, plunging by 24.9% in May 2023. Again, erratic weather played a part in Peru’s downturn, in addition to continuing social unrest which began in December 2022. However, the main reason behind the exceptional rate of decrease in May 2023 is mechanical. The May 2022 growth rate was up 54.7% at 137,948 bags, while the average volume of exports for May in 2014–2021 was 97,969 bags and 103,649 in May 2023, a 5.7% increase when compared against the average. 

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 7.2% to 1.14 million bags in May 2023 from 1.23 million bags in May 2022. For the first eight months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 8.1 million bags as compared with 8.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 5.8%. Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia are the main drivers behind the fall in the region’s exports, with their combined shipments decreasing by 19.4% to 0.45 million bags as compared with 0.56 million bags in May 2022. In Ethiopia, contract disputes arising out of a mismatch between the local purchasing prices and global market prices have been affecting the volume of exports since the early months of 2023, with exporters withholding the coffee until the disputes are resolved. 

In May 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were up 12.4% to 2.14 million bags as compared with 1.91 million in May 2022. This latest month of positive growth is the third in the first eight months of the current coffee year. As a result, the rate of decrease of the cumulative total has decelerated sharply, up to 2.1% in the first eight months of the current coffee year, totalling 10.03 million bags, as compared with 5.4% rate of fall for the first seven months. Honduras was the main driver of the positive growth in May 2023, up 58.0%, to 0.83 million bags from 0.52 million bags in May 2022, the biggest rate of growth for the month of May since its 80.4% increase in 2000. This large jump in exports was mainly due to two factors. The first was mechanical, reflecting the 37.3% year-on-year (YOY) decrease in exports in May 2022, while the second was logistical, where deliveries scheduled for April 2023 were delayed to May. In the first eight months of the current coffee year, Honduras has exported 3.58 million bags, as compared with 3.33 million bags in 2021/22, up 7.5%. 

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 13.1% to 3.94 million bags in May 2023 and rose 3.2% to 31.73 million bags in the first eight months of coffee year 2022/23. Indonesia is the main source of the strong positive growth rate of the region, with exports increasing by 171.7% in May 2023, which in turn is a reflection of the 52.8% YOY fall in May 2022. Indonesia’s average exports for May amount to 0.54 million bags (2017–2021), though these fell to 0.23 million bags in May 2022 before leaping back up to 0.62 million bags in May 2023, the fourth highest volume for the month on record. Measured against the average (2017–2021), the May 2023 exports are up 14.9%, more in line with the year-to-date growth rate of 8.1% (October–May 2022/2023 vs 2021/22). 

Exports of Coffee by Forms 

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 24.6% in May 2023 to 1.07 million bags from 0.86 million bags in May 2022. In the first eight months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 7.93 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 0.4% from the 7.96 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.6% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in May 2023, up from 9.0% in May 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.32 million bags in May 2023. 

Exports of roasted beans were down 4.8% in May 2023 to 72,925 bags, as compared with 68,003 bags in May 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to May 2023 was 0.48 million bags, versus 0.52 million bags in the year-ago period. 

Production and Consumption 

The estimates and outlook for production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same. 

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year. 

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%. 

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand accumulated during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. 

The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22. As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags. 

For the ICO’s full Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO), visit: icocoffee.org. 

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Broadly, the upward trend has the support of the fundamentals, with the global coffee market in deficit in coffee year 2021/22 and this situation expected to be repeated in coffee year 2022/23 (see Production and Consumption). The impetus behind the rally from the last days of March 2023 to the beginning of the third week of April 2023 can be attributed to the reinforcement of the support of the fundamentals from several market-driving events and announcements (see Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee). However, the downturn of the I-CIP, seen since the beginning of the third week of April 2023, appears mainly due to the strengthening US dollar. From 23 March to 28 April 2023, the Brazilian real (R$) moved from a low of R$5.30 on 23 March to a peak of R$4.91 on 14 April, before weakening again to an average of R$5.03 between 15 and 28 April against the US dollar.

Average prices for all group indicators increased in April 2023, with the Robustas averaging an 8.7% gain at 115.70 US cents/lb. Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 4.3% and 3.2%, to 234.85 and 229.56 US cents/lb, respectively, in April 2023. Brazilian Naturals lead the way amongst Arabicas, climbing 4.4% and reaching an average of 195.26 US cents/lb. The International Coffee Exchange’s (ICE) New York market expanded 6.3%, whilst the London Futures market grew 9.1% to 187.30 and 105.43 US cents/lb, respectively.

Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential presented resilient growth, rising 84.3% to 5.30 US cents/lb. Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also gained 3.6% from March to April 2023, averaging 39.60 US cents/lb in April, whilst Colombian Milds-Robustas grew 0.3% to 119.15 US cents/lb for the same period. Conversely, Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential lost 2.9%, averaging 34.30 US cents/lb, whilst Other Milds-Robustas also shrank by 1.7% to 113.86 US cents/lb. With the most moderate loss, Brazilian Naturals-Robustas dropped 1.2% to 79.56 US cents/lb.

Arbitrage, as measured in between the London and New York Futures markets, expanded by 2.9% to 81.88 US cents/lb in April 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP is stabilising and reached 8.7% with a marginal increase of 0.6 percentage points between March and April 2023. Robustas presented the strongest volatility increase, averaging 7.7% for the month of April 2023, a 1.4 percentage point expansion. Echoing this increased volatility were the New York Futures and London markets, where 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points were gained, averaging 11.1% and 7.9%, respectively, for April 2023. Whilst volatility of the Other Milds grew 0.4 percentage points to 9.2%, the Colombian Milds also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.0%. Lastly, Brazilian Naturals saw an 0.5 percentage point increase in volatility from March to April 2023.

The New York certified stocks decreased 7.9% from the previous month, closing in at 0.74 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.31 million 60-kg bags, representing an increase of 3.1%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in March 2023 totalled 10.90 million bags, as compared with 12.06 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 9.6%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 is decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 6.1%, as compared with the 5.2% fall recorded for the first five months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to March is 56.26 million bags, as compared with 59.92 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.1% in March 2023 to 2.11 million bags from 2.55 million bags in the same period last year. This is the sixth consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.2% in the first six months of coffee year 2022/23 to 8.86 million bags versus 10.83 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of Brazilian Naturals fell in March 2023, falling by 13.5% to 3.08 million bags. For the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of Brazilian Naturals amounted to 18.61 million bags, down 7.8% from 20.18 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of Brazilian Naturals are mainly changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of Brazilian Naturals, which also fell in March 2023 (-14.8%) to 2.78 million bags from 3.27 million bags in March 2022.

Exports of Colombian Milds decreased by 17.4% to 0.96 million bags in March 2023 from 1.17 million bags in March 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 19.2% in March 2023. This is the ninth consecutive month of negative growth for Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to March 2023 were down 14.7%, at 5.63 million bags, as compared with 6.60 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 4.74 million bags in March 2023, as compared with 4.78 million bags in March 2022, down 0.8%. In the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, 23.17 million bags of Robustas were exported as compared with 22.31 million bags in the same period in 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In March 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 17.3% to 4.13 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 17.9%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 14.3% and 19.2% in March 2023, falling to 3.1 million and 0.92 million bags, ie, the fourth and ninth consecutive months of negative growth, respectively.

The off-season and smaller harvests in 2020/21 and 2021/22 have been put forward as explanations for Brazil’s falling exports by Cecafé, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, while in Colombia both an adverse weather-driven fall in supply and a 10% decrease in production in March 2023, continue to explain the decreasing exports.

Peru is continuing to see its exports fall at a significantly faster rate, plunging by 76.5% in March 2023. Again, erratic weather played a part in this downturn, in addition to social unrest in the main producing areas (Cajamarca, Junín and San Martín) which saw their roads blocked. However, the main culprit behind the magnitude of the fall in exports is mechanical; 4.60 million bags of all forms of coffee were exported in coffee year 2021/22, the second largest in volume on record, just behind the 4.69 million bags exported in coffee year 2011/12, increasing by 44.8% as compared with coffee year 2020/21. Moreover, for the first three months of the calendar year (January to March 2022), exports increased by 245.8% at 1.00 million bags, the largest Q1 shipment on record, and 57.4% higher than the next biggest, 0.64 million bags, recorded in 2012. Given these record breaking numbers the Q1 data for 2023 are, inevitably, suffering in comparison.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 5.0% to 1.12 million bags in March 2023 from 1.18 million bags in March 2022. For the first six months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 6.35 million bags as compared with 6.33 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 0.3%. Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya are the main drivers behind the fall in the region’s exports, with shipments of coffee decreasing by 41.4% to 0.12 million bags as compared with 0.21 million bags in March 2022, and by 17.7% to 58,340 bags from 70,849 bags in March 2022, respectively. However, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda served as counterweights that tempered the severity of the region’s downturn, with their exports up 86.7%, 249.2% and 2.0%, respectively.

In March 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 15.4% to 1.75 million bags as compared with 2.07 million in March 2022. This latest month of negative growth is the fifth in the first six months of the current coffee year, with the only instance of positive growth seen in February 2023. As a result, for the first six months of the current coffee year, exports are down at 11.8%, totalling 5.78 million bags as compared with 6.56 million bags from October 2021 to March 2022. Of the top six origins, five saw their exports fall in March 2023, with Guatemala suffering the heaviest decline (-44.9%), while Honduras was the only major origin with positive growth (2.0%). For Honduras, the increase seen in March is the third consecutive month of expansion, following 11 straight months of decreases between February and December 2022.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 0.2% to 5.03 million bags in March 2023 and were up 2.5% to 24.05 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2022/23. Indonesia is the main driver of the latest upturn, with exports increasing by 16.0% to 0.58 million bags from 0.50 million bags in March 2022, outweighing the 1.6% and 1.1% downturns of India and Vietnam, respectively.

Indonesia’s upturn in exports seemingly came in the face of evidence to the contrary; the ICO’s latest outlook for coffee year 2022/23 projected Indonesia’s production to be growing at a slower rate than its consumption, 1.1% versus 5.1%, thereby reducing the supply available for export. Moreover, earlier in the year, the Association of Indonesia Coffee Exporters and Industries projected a 20% fall in production due to excessive rain across the coffee growing regions, while severe rainfall was seen through much of the archipelago in the first four months of 2023. The double-digit expansion of exports in March is mainly explained by the strong on-off seasonality of Indonesia’s coffee exports, which is evident in both annual and monthly data (see Graph A). Thus, the 16.0% increase in March 2023 is more a reflection of March 2022 than a statement on the current status of Indonesia’s coffee industry or the world’s demand for its coffee.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 6.5% in March 2023 to 1.05 million bags from 1.13 million bags in March 2022. In the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 5.67 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 8.8% from the 6.22 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.1% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in March 2023, the same as it was in March 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.32 million bags in March 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were up 5.9% in March 2023 to 66,393 bags, as compared with 62,689 bags in March 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to March 2023 was 358,640 bags, as compared with 399,479 bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same. World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in several key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The CRO offers an insight into the factors moving the global coffee industry in the most recent past and draws out the potential events that may drive the industry in the near future. The CRO can be downloaded from the ICO website: www.icocoffee.org. For further information, contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

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Origins of the project

The project stems from the need to investigate the origins of green coffee in order to better understand its botanical species and varieties, harvesting and processing techniques, and clarify which possible green coffee defects are original faults and which ones are acquired during progress through the supply chain.

The goal of this full immersion initiative will be to improve knowledge of the raw materials and the supply chain – from the growing countries all the way to the roasting plants – in order to identify the virtuous dynamics that help obtain a quality drink by eliminating waste and any defects that might become apparent when coffee is in the roasting phase and especially in the cup; another goal is to make product processing more efficient by using low energy impact technologies. In-depth knowledge of the product and of the technologies necessary to correctly process raw materials give supply chain players the right tools to be able to implement corporate social responsibility projects.

The fist appointment of the Green Coffee Academy, the “Coffee Camp Honduras 2023” training campus, based in Las Capucas, Honduras, in the Finca Rio Colorado plantation, has just ended.

The Campus, organised and coordinated by b.farm in conjunction with the Las Capucas COCAFCAL growers cooperative and Umami Area Honduras, included a trip to visit the coffee plantations of Las Capucas and Francisco Villeda growers. The next Campus is foreseen on November, 2023, stay up-to-date to know more and secure your trip.

Two IMA Coffee Lab events are scheduled for the end of March.

29 March: Green Coffee Skills Course

One day of qualifying training at the IMA Coffee Lab green coffee reception and cleaning facility. By signing in for the training day following the SCA Coffee Skills Program, each participant will be able to discover key aspects of green coffee including production, processing, classification, shipping, storage, arrival at destination, as well as coffee portfolio management and contracts. At the end of the day, participants will be able to obtain an SCA Green Coffee Skills certification, for Foundation and Intermediate levels. The training will be delivered by a team of SCA authorised experts and trainers from IMA Coffee and b.farm.

30 March: Academy Open Day – Green Coffee Processing Systems

The final stage of the Green Coffee Academy will be the Academy Day, a day of sharing and training attended by insiders, which includes a program packed full with papers and workshops on green coffee, with the participation of coffee experts, roasters and international producers. During the day, it will be possible to see the Coffee Lab’s green coffee processing plant in operation, including basic cleaning technologies and optical-colour sorting that will be processing up to 2 tons of Ethiopian Djimma Natural, a dry processed arabica. Highly energy-efficient handling and dosing systems, designed to guarantee top hygienic design standards with minimal maintenance requirements, will be presented along with plant management and product traceability systems. Cupping sessions and comparative roasting tests will be carried out according to the modular and traditional method. Participants will also have the opportunity to get to know green coffee dealers and test the best batches exclusively.

The number of participants is limited. Visit the website, download the agenda and reserve your seat, or contact us at: coffeelab@ima.it.

The post The Green Coffee Academy to hold two events at the IMA Coffee Lab this month appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 8.9% and 11.1%, to 238.39 and 229.73 US cents/lb, respectively, in February 2023. However, the Brazilian Naturals and the Robustas gained 14.8% and 8.3%, reaching an average of 195.18 and 103.93 US cents/lb. The London Futures market grew 9.8% whilst ICE’s New York market shrank by 13.2%. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds and Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differentials are leading the way, shrinking 28.8% and 11.6% to 8.66 and 43.21 US cents/lb, respectively. The Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also lost 5.9%, averaging 34.55 US cents/lb for the month of February 2023.

Conversely, the Colombian Milds-Robustas and Other Milds-Robustas differentials grew by 9.4% and 13.6%, closing the month at 134.46 and 125.80 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential presented the strongest growth of 23.2% from January 2023 to February 2023, reaching 91.25 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage, as measured between the New York and London Futures market expanded 17.2%, closing in at 86.67 US cents/lb in February 2023, from 73.97 US cents/lb in January 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 0.1 percentage point between January 2023 and February 2023, reaching 8.7%. Robustas and the London Futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 6.2% and 7.8%, respectively, in February 2023. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 12.1%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. Whilst the volatility of the Colombian Milds stayed constant at 9.2%, the Other Milds, contracted 0.1 percentage point to 8.8%. The variation of the New York Futures market’s volatility increased by 0.3 percentage point, averaging 12.6% for the month of February 2023.

The New York certified stocks decreased by 5.1% from the previous month, closing in at 0.86 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.19 million 60-kg bags, representing an increase of 13.8%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in January 2023 totalled 8.69 million bags, as compared with 10.23 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 15.0%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 is decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 5.4%, as compared with 1.8% decrease for the first three months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to January is 35.86 million bags as compared with 37.9 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.7% in January 2023 to 1.59 million bags from 1.93 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fourth consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the current coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.1% in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23 to 5.11 million bags from 6.24 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22. The region’s latest decline was due to a confluence of downturns in El Salvador (-63.4%), Guatemala (-40.5%) and Nicaragua (-23.2%) against upturns in Honduras (+2.8%) and Mexico (+106.7%), with the negative growth rates of the former group of origins overwhelming the gains of the latter.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell in January 2023, falling by 17.2% to 2.78 million bags. For the first four months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 13.1 million bags, down 0.1% from 13.11 million bags over the same period a year ago. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also fell in January 2023 (down 18.1%) to 2.52 million bags from 3.08 million bags in January 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 20.9% to 0.87 million bags in January 2023 from 1.1 million bags in January 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 19.4% in January 2023. As a result of the sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October 2022 to January 2023 were down by 15.9%, at 3.68 million bags, as compared with 4.37 million bags in the first four months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.45 million bags in January 2023, as compared with 3.84 million bags in January 2022, down 10.1%, bookending the growth rates of the first four months of the current coffee year, which had opened with a 6.8% downturn, followed by two consecutive months of positive growth. As a result, the shipments in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23 were down 1.4% to 13.97 million bags from 14.18 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In January 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 19.9% to 3.93 million bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their combined exports fall by 20.9%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 16.0% and 18.8% in January 2023, falling to 2.86 million bags and 0.85 million bags, respectively, from 3.4 million bags and 1.05 million bags in January 2022. Peru is continuing to see its exports fall by a significantly greater rate, plunging by 63.9% in January 2023, which follows 41.5% downturns in November and December 2022. For Colombia, the sharp downturns continue to be linked to local production conditions, which have been hampered by persistent bad weather linked to the La Niña phenomenon.

In January 2023, Colombia’s production recorded zero growth, following four consecutive months of negative growth, leading the total coffee output for the twelve months to January 2023 to decrease by 10% to 11.08 million bags from 12.36 million bags in the same period a year ago. In Peru, the negative impact of the weather on the origin’s exports has already been addressed in recent issues of the CMR, with social unrest in the country being an additional causal component introduced in the January 2023 issue. However, the size of the plunge in export volume in January 2023 is technical and reflects the anomalous export volume observed in January 2022, in which 435,961 bags of coffee were shipped, the largest export volume for the month of January on record and 53% greater than the second-largest. The average export volume over the past six years, 2016–2021, is 195,565 bags; measured against this, the January 2023 exports are down 19.5%, which is more in line with the region and Brazil and Colombia’s performances.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 17.2% to 3.45 million bags in January 2023 and were down 3.3% to 14.42 million bags in the first four months of coffee year 2022/23. The region’s top three origins are the main drivers for the latest downturn, with the exports of Vietnam down 12.7% to 2.45 million bags from 2.8 million bags in January 2022. Likewise, India and Indonesia’s exports declined by 39.7% to 0.34 million bags from 0.56 million bags and 18.8% to 0.58 million bags from 0.72 million bags in January 2022, respectively.

The New Year and Lunar New Year holidays coincided in January 2023, a rare event, leading to a shortfall of business days, thus explaining the decrease in exports from Indonesia and Vietnam.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 19.5% to 1.11 million bags in January 2023 from 0.93 million bags in January 2022. For the first four months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 4.22 million bags as compared with 4.15 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 1.4%. Uganda is the main driver behind the jump in the region’s exports, with coffee shipments from the region’s largest producer and exporter increasing by 22.9% to 0.49 million bags, as compared with 0.4 million bags in January 2022. Significantly, it ended 12 consecutive months of decreasing exports, which had led the origin’s cumulative total exports over the past year (January–December 2022) to fall to 5.63 million bags as compared with 6.77 million bags between January and December 2021, down 16.9% or 1.14 million bags.

Drought in most of the coffee growing regions has led to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output; however, exports are up in January 2023 because of a stocks drawdown on the back of rising prices for Robustas which in turn were responding to the reduced global supply, especially from Indonesia and Vietnam. Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania are two other origins of note for January 2023, with their exports up 105.8% and 17.8%, respectively.

In January 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 5.0% to 1.21 million bags as compared with 1.27 million in January 2022. For the first four months of the current coffee year, exports are also down 11.4%, totalling 2.75 million bags as compared with 3.1 million bags in October–January 2021/22. As mentioned previously, the region’s latest decline, the fourth in a row since the start of coffee year 2022/23, was due to a confluence of downturns in El Salvador (-58.3%), Guatemala (-40.9%) and Nicaragua (-22.5%) against upturns in Honduras (+2.8%) and Mexico (+61.4%), with the negative growth of the former group overwhelming the gains of the latter. The 2.8% increase for Honduras is the first uptick since January 2022, and reflects the fact that the origin finds itself deep in its harvesting season with a build-up of sufficient supply to meet its contractual obligations.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 3.0% in January 2023 to 0.95 million bags from 0.98 million bags in January 2022. In the first four months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 3.75 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 11.2% from the 4.22 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.1% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in January 2023, as in January 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee and shipped 0.34 million bags in January 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 9.2% in January 2023 to 61,683 bags, as compared with 67,918 bags in January 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to January 2023 was 278,977 bags, as compared with 289,578 bags in the same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.
World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

The ICO will be publishing shortly new consolidated revised values for production and consumption for 2021/22.

For the full report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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The I-CIP lost 0.1% from December 2022 to January 2023, averaging 156.95 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 155.54 US cents/lb. In January 2023, the I-CIP fluctuated between a minimum and maximum of 145.54 and 174.95 US cents/lb, whilst opening the month at 157.31 and ending January on 174.95 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all group indicators remained stable, with a slight decrease in January 2023. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 2.3% and 1.7%, to 218.91 and 206.76 US cents/lb respectively, in January 2023. However, the Brazilian Naturals and the Robustas gained 0.6% and 2.4%, reaching an average of 170.03 and 95.98 US cents/lb. The London Futures market grew 2.2% whilst ICE’s New York market shrank by 3.9%.

Across the board, price differentials shrank, with the Colombian Milds-Other Milds and Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differentials leading the way by shrinking 12.5% and 11.3% to 12.15 and 48.88 US cents/lb, respectively. The Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also lost 10.9%, averaging 110.78 US cents/lb for the month of January 2023. Presenting more moderate losses, the Colombian Milds-Robustas and Other Milds-Robustas differentials declined by 5.7% and 4.9%, closing the month at 122.93 and 100.78 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential also presented a moderate loss of 1.6% from December 2022 to January 2023, reaching 74.05 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage, as measured between the New York and London Futures market lost 10.1%, closing in at 73.97 US cents/lb in January 2023, from 82.26 US cents/lb in December 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 0.5 percentage points between December 2022 and January 2023, reaching 8.6%. Robustas and the London Futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 6.0% and 6.8%, respectively, in January 2023. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 12.7%, a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for December 2022 to January 2023 is -2.4 to 9.2% and -0.8 to 8.9%, respectively. The variation of the New York Futures market’s volatility contracted 0.2 percentage points, averaging 12.3% for the month of January 2023.

The New York certified stocks increased by 4.3% from the previous month, closing in at 0.91 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.04 million 60-kg bags, representing a decrease of 3.8%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in December 2022 totalled 9.81 million bags, as compared with 10.64 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 7.7%. The downturn was spread across all coffee groups except for the Robustas, which recorded a marginal gain of 1.1%. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 are down 1.1% as compared with 2.4% increase for the first two months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to December is 27.26 million bags as compared with 27.67 million bags over the same a year ago, down 1.5%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 24.8% in December 2022 to 1.24 million bags from 1.65 million bags in the same period last year. This is the third consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 17.8% in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23 to 3.54 million bags from 4.3 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22. The latest downturn is primarily driven by Honduras and Peru, down 33.7% and 41.4%, respectively in December 2022 as compared with December 2021.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals also declined in December 2022, falling by 10.3% to 3.24 million bags, following a 15.2% increase in November 2022. For the first three months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 10.32 million bags, up 5.8% from 9.76 million bags over the same period a year ago. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the group, which also fell in December 2022 (down 14%) as compared with November 2022 (up 15.5%).

Green bean exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 7.5% to 1.08 million bags in December 2022 from 1.18 million bags in December 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 11.8% in December 2022. As a result of the sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October to December 2022 were down by 12.7%, at 2.85 million bags, as compared with 3.27 million bags in the first three months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 4.25 million bags in December 2022, as compared with 4.21 million bags in December 2021, up 1.1%, continuing to build on the 2.6% increase in November 2022. The two consecutive months of positive growth meant that shipments in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23 were up 2.0% to 10.55 million bags from 10.34 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In December 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 17.3% to 4.64 million bags. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw their respective shipments of coffee fall by 15.2% and 11.0% in December 2022, falling to 3.21 million bags and 1.05 million bags, respectively, from 3.79 million bags and 1.18 million bags in December 2021. Ecuador and Peru, however, saw their volume of exports fall by nearly half, plunging by 45.2% and 41.5%, respectively. For Colombia, the sharp downturns continue to be linked to local production conditions. Persistent bad weather linked to the La Niña phenomenon caused Colombia’s December 2022 coffee output to drop by 29%, the country’s fourth consecutive month of negative growth, with a consequent impact on exports.

In Peru, weather-driven elongation of the current harvesting period and intermittent rains hampering the drying process, both of which negatively affect the quality of dried beans, have been affecting the supply of coffee beans since the beginning of the 2022/23 season. However, since the beginning of the last month of 2022, social unrest in the country may have added to supply problems, leading to December 2022 having the lowest volume of exports since 2015, when only 310,000 bags were shipped from Peru. As for Ecuador, the sharp fall in December 2022 can be attributed to the previous anomalous growth in December 2021, when the export volume of all forms of coffee increased by 164.4%. The 57,599 bags of coffee exported in December 2022 is in line with the current trend and previous volumes for the month, averaging 57,508 bags in 2016–2020.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 4.2% to 4.59 million bags in December 2022 and were up 2.0% to 6.57 million bags in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23. The region’s increase is explained by Vietnam (up 16.4%), the largest producer and exporter of coffee from Asia and Oceania, which shipped 3.38 million bags in December 2022. However, the region’s relatively small increase was due to the 39.0% decrease in exports of the region’s third-largest exporter, India, which shipped only 0.42 million bags as compared with 0.68 million bags in December 2021. It was also the fifth consecutive month of negative growth for the origin’s exports. The downturn is to be expected, however, as coffee year 2021/22 was a record-breaking year for India, with the origin shipping 7.24 million bags as compared with 5.95 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 9.0% to 0.97 million bags in December 2022 from 1.13 million bags in December 2021. For the first three months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 3.17 million bags as compared with 3.22 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 1.4%. Uganda is the main driver behind the fall in the region’s exports, with shipments of coffee from the region’s largest producer and exporter falling by 21.9% to 0.42 million bags as compared with 0.54 million bags in December 2021.

This is now the 12th consecutive month of decline for Uganda, with its cumulative total exports from January to December 2022 having amounted to 5.63 million bags, as compared with 6.77 million bags over the same period a year ago (January–December 2021), equating to a 20.25% or 1.14 million bag decrease. Drought in most of the coffee growing regions, leading to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output, is continuing to hamper Ugandan coffee exports. As noted previously, Africa’s export performance is not entirely hindered by Uganda, with Côte d’Ivoire (up 69.4% to 0.19 million bags), Kenya (up 33.2% to 0.12 million bags) and Tanzania (up 18.6% to 0.34 million bags), giving the region tremendous uplifts in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23.

In December 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 15.2% to 0.69 million bags, as compared with 0.81 million in December 2021. For the first three months of the current coffee year, exports were also down 15.2%, totalling 1.55 million bags as compared with 1.83 million bags in October–December 2021/22. The region’s latest decline, the third consecutive month since the start of coffee year 2022/23, is mainly a reflection of Honduras, the largest exporter and producer of the region, with a 33.7% decrease (99,918 bags) in exports in December 2022. Two reasons explain the latest fall for Honduras: (i) continuing struggles with leaf-rust, or roya, affecting the origin’s harvests for coffee year 2022/23; and (ii) a technical downturn reflecting a 46.3% increase in December 2021. Costa Rica, Guatemala and Nicaragua were the region’s other major origins making negative contributions to Mexico and Central America’s exports in December 2022, decreasing by 23.3% (31,848 bags), 20.7% (87,100 bags) and 35.1% (103,290 bags), respectively.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 15.9% in December 2022 to 0.98 million bags from 1.17 million bags in December 2021. In the first three months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 2.8 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 13.6% from the 3.25 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.0% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in December 2022, down from 9.1% in December 2021.

Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.34 million bags in December 2022, followed by India with 0.22. Exports of roasted beans were up 4.7% in December 2022 to 75,852 bags, as compared with 72,446 bags in December 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to December 2022 was 208,975 bags, as compared with 221,554 bags in the same period a year ago, down 5.7%.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year. World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags. The ICO will be publishing shortly new consolidated revised values for production and consumption for 2021/22.

For more information or the full report, visit the ICO’s new website: icocoffee.org.

The post Coffee prices stabilised in January, with a slight decrease appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) gained 0.3% from November to December 2022, averaging 157.19 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 157.73 US cents/lb. In December 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated between 151.95 and 162.31 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all group indicators remained stable, with a slight increase in December 2022. The Colombian Milds, Brazilian Naturals and Robustas increased by 0.4%, 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively, month on month in December 2022. The group indicators respectively averaged 224.12, 169.00 and 93.76 US cents/lb in December. The Other Milds fell by 1.7% to 210.24 US cents/lb. Stability in the market is in part due to the average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York and London futures market remaining stable.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential sprung back up 48.2% to 13.88 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals both declined by 2.8% and 12.8% to 55.12 and 41.24 US cents/lb in December 2022, respectively. The Colombian Milds Robustas differential remained stable, losing only 0.2 percentage points and reaching 130.36 US cents/lb for the last month of 2022. Falling 3.9% over the course of the month was the Other Milds-Robustas differential, retracting 3.9%, to 116.48 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential gained 1.8% from November to December 2022, reaching 75.24 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures gained 0.2%, closing in at 82.26 US cents/lb in December 2022, up from 82.13 US cents/lb in November 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 0.2 percentage points between November and December 2022, reaching 9.1%. Robustas and the London futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 5.3% and 4.8%, respectively, in December 2022. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 12.1%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for November to December 2022 is 0.6 to 11.6% and 0.1 to 9.7%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, averaging 12.5% for the month of December 2022.

The New York certified stocks increased by 46.6% from the previous month, closing in at 0.87 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.08 million 60-kg bags, representing a decrease of 25.5%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in November 2022 totalled 9.21 million bags, as compared with 8.31 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 10.8%. The positive growth was driven by the Brazilian Naturals and Robustas, which saw their exports increase by double digits, while the Colombian and Other Milds suffered from double-digit decreases. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 bounced back into black, up 3.5% as compared with the 3.5% decrease for the first month of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to November is 17.63 million bags as compared with 17.03 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals bounced back sharply in November 2022, rocketing up by 34.5% to 3.67 million bags, following a lackluster 0.5% increase in October 2022 as compared with the same periods in the previous coffee year. For the first two months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 7.11 million bags, up 15.6% from 6.15 million bags over the same period a year ago. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the changes in Brazil’s green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also bounced back in November 2022 (up 32%) as compared with October 2022 (up 1.9%).

Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 3.58 million bags in November 2022, as compared with 3.17 million bags in November 2021, up 12.9%, a sharp turnaround from the 5.5% decrease in October 2022. This meant that the shipments in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23 were up 4% to 6.38 million bags versus 6.13 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 15.1% in November 2022 to 1.1 million bags from 1.29 million bags in the same period last year. This is the second consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year, having already fallen by 7.1% in October 2022. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 11% in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23 to 2.36 million bags from 2.65 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 22.8% to 0.86 million bags in November 2022 from 1.12 million bags in November 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this coffee group, whose green bean exports were down 26.7% in November 2022. As a result of the sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds from October to November 2022 were down by 15.2%, at 1.78 million bags, as compared with 2.1 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In November 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 4.7% to 4.96 million bags. There were wide variations in the performances of November 2022 exports among the major origins of the region, with Brazil (up 25.4%) being the best performing, and Peru (down 41.5%) and Colombia (down 24.2%) the worst performing. Improved shipping conditions have been reported as the reason behind the strong increase in Brazil’s exports, but for Peru and Colombia the sharp downturns are linked to local production conditions. Persistent bad weather linked to the La Niña phenomenon has caused Colombia’s November 2022 coffee output to drop by 6%, the country’s third consecutive month of negative growth, with a consequent impact on exports. In Peru, irregular weather patterns have led to prolonged and intermittent rains, which impacted the regular development of cherries and flowers, leading to coffee trees having both cherries and flowers concurrently and thus spreading out the harvesting period. Moreover, intermittent rains also hampered the drying process, having a negative impact on the quality of dried beans. These all affected the supply of coffee beans and contributed to November 2022 having the lowest volume of exports since 2007, when only 244,325 bags were shipped from Peru.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 19% to 3.78 million bags in November 2022 and were up 3.6% to 6.57 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23. The region’s sharp increase is explained by Vietnam (up 19.8%) and Indonesia (up 48.7%), the largest and the second-largest producers and exporters of coffee from Asia and Oceania, shipping 2.2 million bags and 0.89 million bags, respectively. However, the region’s third-largest exporter, India, saw its exports decrease in November 2022, down 0.8% to 0.58 million bags from 0.59 million bags in November 2021.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 6.8% to 1.09 million bags in November 2022 from 1.02 million bags in November 2021. For the first two months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 2.16 million bags as compared with 2.15 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. In November 2022, Uganda’s exports fell for the 11th consecutive month, decreasing by 14.8% to 0.45 million bags from 0.52 million bags in November 2022. Uganda’s cumulative total exports over the past 11 months (January–November 2022) amount to 5.21 million bags as compared with 6.23 million bags over the same period a year ago (January–November 2021), down 16.4% or 1.02 million bags. Drought in most of the coffee growing regions, leading to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output, is continuing to hamper Ugandan coffee exports. Despite Uganda’s large negative push downwards on Africa’s coffee exports in November 2022, positive pulls upwards by Côte d’Ivoire (up 111.1%) and Ethiopia (up 29.2%), the region’s third- and second-largest producers and exporters, supported by Kenya (up 16.6%) and Rwanda (up 63.6%), were sufficiently robust to ensure that the region’s exports grew in November 2022, despite the downturn in Uganda’s exports.

In November 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 7.1% to 0.41 million bags as compared with 0.45 million in November 2021. For the first two months of the current coffee year, exports are down 13.3%, totalling 0.89 million bags as compared with 1.02 million bags in October–November 2021/22. The region’s decline in November was due to Honduras, down 50%, which is struggling with leaf-rust, or roya, which has hit the industry’s harvests.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 3.2% in November 2022 to 0.97 million bags from 1.0 million bags in November 2021. In the first two months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 1.81 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 12.9% from the 2.07 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.0% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in November 2022, down from 9.1% in November 2021. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 0.27 million bags in November 2022, followed by India with 0.19 million bags and Indonesia with 0.15 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans were down 7.5% in November 2022 to 68,865 bags, as compared with 74,411 bags in November 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to November 2022 was 130,953 bags, as compared with 149,108 bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

The post Coffee prices end 2022 on a stable note appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Average prices for all group indicators decreased in November 2022. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 14.8% and 10.9%, respectively, month on month in November. The former averaged 223.22 US cents/lb in November 2022, whilst the latter averaged 213.85 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals fell by 13.4% to 166.54 US cents/lb. The Robustas fell below the 100 US cents/lb mark, averaging 92.59 US cents/lb for the month of November, a 10.1% decline from the previous month. The downturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 14.0% in November 2022 over October 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas also shrank by 10.3%. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential suffered a month-on-month loss of 57.2%, closing in at 9.37 US cents/lb for November 2022.

The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds-Robustas differentials declined by 18.7% and 17.8% to 56.68 and 130.63 US cents/lb in November 2022, respectively. Falling the least was the Other Milds Brazilian Naturals differential, declining by only 1.0%, to 47.31 US cents/lb. The Other Milds Robustas differential lost 11.5% from October to November 2022 reaching 121.26 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential retracted 17.2% to 73.95 US cents/lb for the aforementioned period.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 17.5%, falling to 82.13 US Cents/lb in November 2022 from 99.56 US cents/lb in October 2022 precipitated by the faster rate of price decline of Arabica compared with Robusta.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 2.2 percentage points between October and November 2022, reaching 9.3%. Robustas and the London futures market were the least volatile amongst all group indicators, at 7.2% and 7.1%, respectively, in November 2022. The Brazilian Naturals’ volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 11.9%, a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for October to November 2022 is 3.6 to 11.0% and 2.0 to 9.6%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, posting an increase of 2.7 percentage points, averaging 12.5% for the month of November 2022.

The New York certified stocks increased by 45.3% from the previous month, closing in at 0.59 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.45 million bags, representing a decrease of 4.6%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global exports of green beans in October 2022 totalled 8.5 million bags, compared with 8.72 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 2.5%. The downturn was spread across most of the coffee groups, with the Brazilian Naturals alone starting the new coffee year on a positive footing with an uptick of 0.5%, the third consecutive months of positive growth, exporting 3.44 million bags of green beans.

The positive start to the new coffee year made by the Brazilian Naturals was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with a 1.9% increase in the exports of green beans, outweighing the downturns of the other major origins of the Brazilian Naturals group – Ethiopia (-10.9%), Uganda (-6.0%) and Vietnam (-19.5%).

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 4.1% to 0.94 million bags in October 2022 from 0.98 million bags in October 2021, driven by the contractions in Colombia and Tanzania whose exports of green beans were down 6.0% and 2.3%, respectively. Within this coffee group, Kenya alone started the new coffee year on a bright note, exporting an additional 46.2% of green beans in October 2022 as compared with October 2021. The decline in October 2022 is the fourth in a row for Colombia, and another month in which production is at fault for the decreasing exports – in October 2022 Colombia’s coffee output fell by 12%. The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (FNC) attributed the decline in production to excess rains due to the La Niña event, which translated into excess water, less sunlight, and fewer blooms in coffee plantations.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 4.3% in October 2022 to 1.3 million bags from 1.36 million bags in the same period last year. Guatemala (-28.0%), Honduras (-49.2%) and Peru (-8.4%) were behind this fall. In Honduras, the coffee industry continues to struggle with leaf rust, which is affecting production, while Guatemala’s output is being hampered due to climatic reasons and the availability of labour, all of which are having a knock-on effect on the countries’ exports.

Of the four coffee groups, the Robustas have recorded the worst performance in the new coffee year 2022/23, with exports falling by 4.8% to 2.82 million bags from 2.96 million bags. Except for India and Indonesia, all major origins within the Robustas group saw their exports of green beans fall in October 2022 – Uganda (-6.0%) and Vietnam (-19.5%). Uganda is still facing drought in most of its coffee-growing regions, which has led and is continuing to lead to lower outputs and, subsequently, lower exports.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In October 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased marginally by 0.2% to 4.99 million bags. The marginality of the growth rate was largely the result of increases in the exports of Brazil (1.1%) and Ecuador (48.3%), edged by the decreases in exports of Colombia (-2.3%) and Peru (-9.4%).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania totalled 3.17 million bags in October 2022, 10,000 bags greater than in October 2021. The region’s miniscule growth rate, however, belies the strong growth rates amongst the major origins; India and Indonesia made gains of 15.1% to 0.54 million bags and 34.5% to 1.12 million bags, respectively, while Vietnam suffered a 19.5% fall to 1.37 million bags.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 2.4% to 1.1 million bags in October 2022 from 1.13 million bags in October 2021. Ethiopia and Uganda were the two main origins behind the region’s downturn in exports in October 2022, with the respective growth rates of shipped coffee at -10.9% and -6.0%. The fact that Africa’s decrease of exports was softer than as suggested by the growth rates of the region’s top two biggest exporters is down to the counterweights of Burundi (316.7%), Côte d’Ivoire (83.2%) and Kenya (46.3%). However, the greater-than-normal growth rates of the three origins do not reflect fundamental changes to the respective domestic coffee industries but are technical anomalies due to large negative growth rates in October 2021. Burundi’s exports of all forms of coffee were down 66.5% and Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya by 79.1% and 54.1%, respectively.

In October 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 14.6% to 0.49 million bags as compared with 0.57 million in October 2021. Of the 12 origins in the region only the Dominican Republic (10.5%), Mexico (1.1%) Nicaragua (24.6%) and Trinidad & Tobago (259.2%) saw exports increase in October 2022. Honduras exports fell by 49.2% in October 2022, with the volume of all forms of coffee shipped decreasing to 40,842 bags as compared with 80,328 bags. The origin continues to suffer from the impact of leaf-rust which affected the output of coffee year 2021/22 and is now having an adverse effect in the supply available for export. Of the region’s major origins (million bags and over), Costa Rica suffered the steepest fall, with its exports falling by 68.9% in October 2022 to 9,216 bags, as compared with 13,052 bags in the same period a year ago. The volume shipped in October 2022 is the lowest since September 1976, when 7,093 bags were exported. Costa Rica’s coffee institute, ICAFE, cites lower-than-expected production in coffee year 2021/22 as the reason for the drop in exports.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 10.9% in October 2022 to 1.19 million bags from 1.07 million bags in October 2021. The share of soluble coffee in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.5% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in October 2022 as compared with 8.9% in October 2021. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, and the country shipped 291,345 bags in October 2022, down 6.2% from 310,731 bags in October 2021. The second and third placed origins, India and Indonesia, however started the new coffee year at a gallop, with their soluble coffee exports up 25.0% and 33.7%, at 180,000 bags and 397,805 bags, respectively, in October 2022.

Exports of roasted beans decreased by 18.0% in October 2022 to 61,226 bags from 74,697 bags in October 2021.

Production and Consumption
The latest provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2022/23 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2022/23 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2022/23, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

The post Despite a 12.3% setback in November, coffee prices stabilised appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) lost 0.2% from August to September 2022, averaging 199.63 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 198.43 US cents/lb. In September 2022, the I-CIP fluctuated in between 193.28 and 206.37 US cents/lb.

Average prices for all groups indicators decreased in September 2022, except for the Robustas, which had an uptick of 1.6% from August to September 2022. The Robustas averaged 111.36 US cents/lb for the month of September. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, month-on-month in September. The former averaged 294.09 US cents/lb in September 2022, whilst the latter averaged 267.49 US cents/lb. The upturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market, which lost 0.1% in September 2022 over August 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE (International Coffee Exchange) Futures Europe for the Robustas grew by 1.8%.

The Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential took the hardest hit from August to September 2022, retracting 3.6% from 112.26 to 108.23 US cents/lb as growth of the Robustas outpaced the Brazilian Naturals. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential sustained a 2.3% loss for the aforementioned period, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential shrank by 1.8%. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential grew by 1% to 74.50 US cents/lb in September 2022. The strongest growth among all the differentials was observed for the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential, gaining 3.0%, ranging 46.52 to 47.90 US cents/lb for their respective monthly averages. Lastly, the Other Milds-Robustas differential lost 1.7% from August to September 2022. The average of the monthly differential stood at 156.13 US cents/lb, down from 158.78 in August 2022.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 1.7%, falling to 117.74 US Cents/lb in September 2022 from 119.79 US cents/lb in August 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 2.0 percentage points between August and September 2022, reaching a low of 8.3%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 7.3% and 7.0% in September 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility, was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 10.9%, a 2.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for August to September 2022 is -2.0 to 8.0% and -2.8 to 8.6%, respectively. The New York futures market remained the most volatile, albeit posting a decrease of 3.4 percentage points, averaging 11.2% for the month of September 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 37.2% from the previous month, closing in at 0.45 million bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.59 million bags, representing a decrease of 0.8%.

Export by Coffee Groups
Global exports of green beans in August 2022 totalled 8.83 million bags, compared with 9.17 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 3.7%. The downturn was spread across all groups of coffee, with the exception of the Brazilian Naturals, which saw a 7.1% increase in August 2022 as compared with the same month a year ago. The second consecutive month of negative growth has pushed the cumulative total exports of green beans for the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 further into red, down 1.0% as compared to 0.7% decrease for the first 10 months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2021/22 to August is 107.05 million bags as compared with 108.13 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 23.0% to 0.86 million bags in August 2022 from 1.12 million bags in August 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 25.6% in August 2022. As a result of the relatively sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds in October 2021–August 2022 were down by 5.7% at 11.32 million bags, as compared with 12.0 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2020/21. Colombia exported 0.79 million bags of green beans in August 2022, the lowest August exports since 0.54 million bags were shipped in 2012.

The Brazilian Naturals bounced back in August with a 7.1% increase, following a 4.6% fall in July 2022, exporting 2.85 million bags as compared with 2.66 million bags in August 2021. The upturn was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with its total green bean exports increasing by 4.6% in August 2022 to 2.44 million bags. However, the cumulative total exports of the Brazilian Naturals for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is down 5.8% at 34.52 million bags, as compared with 36.66 million bags.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 3.7% in August 2022 to 1.94 million bags from 2.01 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive months of fall. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to increase but at a declining rate, falling to 1.3% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 (22.09 million bags vs 21.08 million bags) from 2.7% in the first 10 months of the same coffee year. Guatemala and Honduras were the two main origins responsible for the latest fall in exports of the Other Milds, with their exports of green beans plunging by 27.7% and 41.3%, respectively.

In Honduras, the coffee industry is struggling with leaf-rust, or roya, which has hit the industry’s harvests, with the country’s coffee association lowering the exports outlook for coffee year 2021/22, twice already, from 5.823 million bags to 4.61 million bags. Guatemala is also dealing with impact of a lower production, due mainly to climatic reasons and availability of labour, that is having a knock-on effect on the country’s exports.

Exports of the Robustas totalled 3.17 million bags in August 2022, as compared with 3.38 million bags in August 2021, down 6.0%. Exports of green beans for the first 11 months of the current and previous coffee years for the Robustas were 42.57 million bags and 41.22 million bags, respectively, up 3.8%. Ethiopia and India are the two main origins behind the latest downturn, suffering from 16.0% and 13.1% decreases, respectively, in August 2022, with their total green bean exports at 0.43 million bags and 0.37 million bags, respectively. India, especially, has had a good year so far, with the total exports of green beans for the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 increasing by 31.1% to 4.62 million bags as compared to 3.53 million bags, an increase of 1.1 million bags. As a result, the production/export ratio is falling sharply, down from 1.48 in coffee year 2020/21 to 1.12 in coffee year 2021/22. The ratio is a good indication of supply availability. Therefore, it is possible that the sharp fall in India’s August 2022 exports is a reflection of the supply availability towards the end of a stellar year.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 13.2% in August 2022 to 0.98 million bags from 0.87 million bags in August 2021. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, a total of 11.06 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 6.3% from the 10.4 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.3% (measured on a moving 12- month average) in August 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.58 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, followed by India with 2.0 million bags, with Indonesia in third place at 1.53 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans increased by 59.9% in August 2022 to 89,548 bags from 55,995 bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 was 0.75 million bags, as compared with 0.72 million bags in same period a year ago.

Regional Outlook
In October 2021 to August 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 23.3% to 50.46 million bags. Brazil and Colombia are the reasons for this large drop in exports. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 27.2% to 34.74 million bags from 47.4 million bags in October-August 2020/21. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 18.7% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 at 11.17 million bags, from 13.74 million bags in the same period a year ago. A smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off-season’, along with problems with containers and shipping, mainly noted during the middle of the current coffee year, explains the large drop in exports of all forms of coffee in Brazil, while the fall in the exports of Colombia is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions reducing the available supply of coffee in the country. Nevertheless, Peru is enjoying a good year, with exports of all forms of coffee expanding by 6.1% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 to 4.05 million bags from 3.82 million bags in the same period a year ago.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 2.7% to 3.25 million bags in August 2022 but were down 1.5% to 40.86 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22. Indonesia was the origin behind the uptick for August, with its exports growing by 20.1% to 0.65 million bags from 0.54 million bags in August 2021. However, the country is also the main reason behind the negative cumulative growth of the region for the season so far: exports of all forms of coffee are down 17.8% to 6.24 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22 as compared with 7.59 million bags in the same period a year ago. Vietnam, the region’s biggest producer and export, made a margin gain in August, with the origin’s exports increasing by 0.1% to 1.89 million bags, bringing the year’s total (October 2021 to August 2022) to 26.6 million bags, up 1.8% year-on-year. India’s shipments were down 6.0% in August 2022 to 0.57 million bags, however the total for the first 11 months remains up at 8.5%, 6.64 million bags versus 6.12 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 11.9% to 1.24 million bags in August 2022 from 1.4 million bags in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 12.48 million bags as compared with 15.44 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Uganda is the main source of the downturn for the region in August, with its exports falling by 28.5% to 0.5 million bags as compared to 0.7 million bags in August 2021. The cumulative total for coffee year 2021/22 to August 2022 is also down, decreasing by 23.0% to 5.35 million bags from 6.94 million bags in the same period a year ago. The decrease in exports was mainly due to the impact of drought in most of the coffee growing regions, which led to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda, and hence lower output.

In August 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 7.4% to 1.19 million bags as compared with 1.29 million in August 2021. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports are down 13.0%, totalling 15.07 million bags as compared with 17.34 million bags in October–August 2020/21. The region’s sharp downturn in August was due Guatemala and Honduras, down 27.8% and 41.3%, respectively. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22, the total exports are 3.16 million bags and 4.53 million bags, for the two origins, respectively, down 15.6% and 24.0%. The reason for the poor performance of the two origins has already been explained in the “Exports by Coffee Groups” section above.

Production and Consumption
The provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year. World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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To fuel its sustainability goals, Dunkin’ has partnered with like-minded organisations. Together they’re working to support the regions where Dunkin’s coffee grows and make a difference in the lives and livelihoods of coffee farmers and producers.

The Dunkin’ Drive-To Sustainability Program is comprised of three pillars: verification, partnerships, and improvement. As part of the first pillar, we are partnering with Enveritas, a 501(c)(3) non-profit founded to overcome systemic barriers that prevent the application of proven solutions for ending poverty among smallholder coffee growers.

By leveraging its Coffee Policy and third-party verification with Enveritas, Dunkin’ aims to improve standards with US roasters and international licensees, audit its US coffee supply chain to ensure policy compliance, and track key performance indicators toward continuous improvement efforts.

Some of Dunkin’s efforts under its pillars of Partnerships and Improvement include:
• Supported the planting of 450,000 trees in coffee growing regions of Honduras and Guatemala in 2021 with a donation to One Tree Planted, a 501(c)(3) non-profit dedicated to helping the environment by planting trees in countries around the world.
• Trained farmers and farmworkers in Honduras through its Farmworker Training Project alongside the Louis Dreyfus Company. This project enhanced Dunkin’s suppliers’ abilities to make improvements on sustainability issues.
• Boosting coffee sustainability through agricultural science as a leading sponsor of the nonprofit World Coffee Research (WCR). A percentage of sales from every pound of Original Blend coffee beans sold to Dunkin’ franchisees for use in Dunkin’ restaurants go to WCR.
• Since 2018, Dunkin’ has been a part of The Sustainable Coffee Challenge, a collaborative effort led by Conservation International to make coffee the world’s first sustainable agricultural product.
• To empower women in coffee, Dunkin’ has supported providing coffee suppliers in Guatemala and Colombia with access to Equal Origins’ Virtual Learning Journey.
• Over the next three years, alongside global agri-business company Olam Food Ingredients (OFI), Dunkin’ will help 350 coffee-farming families in Santa Barbara and Comayagua, Honduras become more economically sustainable and better environmental stewards through trainings and improved crop yields.

To learn more, visit impact.inspirebrands.com.

The post Dunkin’ commits to 100% responsibly sourced coffee by 2025 appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Average prices for all groups’ indicators increased in August 2022. Robustas gained the most, expanding 9.2% from July to August 2022, raising to an average of 109.65 US cents/lb for the month. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, increased by 3.4% and 4.9% respectively, month-on-month in August. The former averaged 295.66 US cents/lb in August 2022, whilst the latter averaged 268.43 US cents/lb. The upturns are in part due to the average second and third positions of the ICE New York futures market, which gained by 3.7% in August 2022 over July 2022. The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE Futures Europe for Robustas grew substantially by 10.2%.

The Colombian Milds Other Milds differential took the hardest hit from July to August 2022, retracting 9.7% from 30.16 to 27.23 US cents/lb as growth of the Other Milds outpaced the Colombian Milds. Strong Other Milds growth can also be evaluated in the Other Milds Robustas differential as it gained 13.2%, up from 41.10 to 46.52 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds Brazilian Naturals continued its upwards trajectory of the past year, as the differential increased by 3.5% from 71.27 to 73.75 US cents/lb from July to August 2022. Despite the Robustas indicator price presenting strong growth, the Colombian Milds Robustas differential gained 0.2%, ranging from 185.63 to 186.01 US cents/lb for the aforementioned period.

Echoing strong growth of the Robustas group indicator, the Other Milds Robustas differential increased by 2.1% reaching 158.78 US cents/lb in August 2022 from 155.46 US cents/lb in the previous month. The Robustas group indicator did however manage to close the differential with the Brazilian Naturals by 1.8%, where it retracted from 114.36 to 112.36 US cents/lb from July to August 2022. The arbitrage between New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 1.2%, falling to 119.79 US Cents/lb in August 2022 from 121.24 US cents/lb in July 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased 0.2 percentage points between July and August 2022, reaching 10.3%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 6.6% and 7.1% in August 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility, was the highest amongst the group indicators, averaging 13.3%, a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for July to August 2022 is 0.4 to 10.0% and 0.6 to 11.4%, respectively, and there was significant volatility of the New York futures market, posting an increase of 1.1 percentage points, averaging 14.6% for the month of August 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 6.5% from the previous month, closing in at 0.72 million bags, the lowest in over 20 years, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.61 million bags, representing a decrease of 10.9%.

Global exports of green beans in July 2022 totalled 9.04 million bags, compared with 9.91 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 8.8%. The slump was spread across all four groups of coffee, with the Colombian Milds recording the biggest drop, falling by 12.5% year-on-year. The double-digit decrease in July pushed the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2021/22 into red, down 0.8% as compared to 0.1% increase for the first nine months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2021/22 to July is 98.08 million bags as compared with 98.97 million bags over the same period a year ago. Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 12.5% to 1.02 million bags in July 2022 from 1.17 million bags in July 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 15.7% in July 2022. As a result of the relatively sharp downturn, exports of the Colombian Milds in October 2021–July 2022 were down by 3.7% at 10.48 million bags, as compared with 10.88 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2020/21. Colombia exported 0.929 million bags of green beans in July 2022, the lowest since 0.928 million bags were shipped in July 2017.

In the previous two ICO reports, the monthly movements of exports from Colombia, up an average 108.9% in May–June 2022, were explained as being technical, reflecting the dramatic changes of the previous year, down an average 43.3% over May–June 2021. However, for July 2022, the sharp fall in exports is linked to the sharper drop in production, which had fallen by 22% in the same month.

The recovery of the Brazilian Naturals, first seen in May and continuing into June, was broken in July, with exports falling by 6.7% at 2.57 million bags as compared with 2.75 million bags in July 2021. This reversal of fortune was driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, with logistical bottlenecks and harvesting delays impacting July exports. For the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, exports of the Brazilian Naturals stood at 31.68 million bags, down 6.8% from 34.0 million bags over the same period a year ago. Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 9.9% in July to 2.23 million bags from 2.47 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to increase but at a declining rate, falling to 0.9% in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22 (19.99 million bags vs 19.8 million bags) from 2.5% in the first nine months of the same coffee year. Exports of Robustas totalled 3.23 million bags in July 2022, as compared with 3.52 million bags in July 2021, down 8.4%. Exports of green beans for the first 10 months of the current and previous coffee years for Robustas were 35.95 million bags and 34.29 million bags, respectively, up 4.8%.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 18.5% in July 2022 to 1.01 million bags from 0.85 million bags in July 2021. In the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, a total of 10.04 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 4.3% from the 9.53 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.2% (measured on a moving 12- month average) in July 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 3.26 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, followed by India with 2.0 million bags, with Indonesia in third place at 1.48 million bags exported over the same period. Exports of roasted beans increased by 3.4% in July 2022 to 67,101 bags from 64,290 bags in July 2021.

In October 2021 to July 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 8.5% to 42.24 million bags. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 12.4% to 31.98 million bags from 37.22 million bags in October-July 2020/21. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 13.2% in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22 at 10.28 million bags, from 10.59 million bags in the same period a year ago. The fall in the exports is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions reducing the available supply of coffee in the country.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 4.0% to 3.19 million bags in July 2022, and by 16.0% to 37.6 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22. During these periods, Vietnam’s exports decreased by 1.9% to 1.95 million bags, but were still up 17.9% to 24.71 million bags, respectively. India’s shipments were up 10.8% to 0.53 million bags in July 2022, and up 28.9% to 6.07 million bags in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22. Exports from Indonesia increased by 31.6% to 0.58 million bags in July 2022 and were up 0.2% to 5.59 million bags in October–July 2021/22.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 13.1% to 1.41 million bags in July 2022 from 1.62 million bags in July 2021. For the first 10 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 11.36 million bags as compared with 11.83 million bags in coffee year 2020/21. Exports from Tanzania were down 66.6% in July and by 4.9% in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, at 11,754 bags and 0.84 million bags, respectively. Over the same periods, exports from Ethiopia decreased by 23.5% to 0.5 million bags, but increased 6.4% to 3.25 million, respectively.

In July 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 16.2% to 1.54 million bags as compared with 1.83 million in July 2021. For the first 10 months of the current coffee year, exports are down 5.6%, totalling 13.61 million bags as compared with 14.42 million bags in October–July 2020/21. The region’s sharp downturn in July, just as it was for June 2022, was due to the 41.1% fall in exports from Honduras, the largest exporter of the region, shipping 0.39 million bags in July 2022 as compared with 0.66 million bags in July 2021.

For the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22, Honduras has exported 4.28 million bags, down 17.9% from 5.22 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2020/21. Less rainfall during the bean-filling period in some growing regions, a high incidence of rust disease as a result of hurricanes Eta and Iota, and stumping following an earlier outbreak of rust disease, which led renewal in 2012 that reached peak production between the 2018/2020 harvests, all affected the country’s supply of coffee and continue to negatively affect exports from Honduras.

The latest provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21. In 2021/22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full ICO report, visit: ico.org.

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Average prices for all group indicators decreased in July 2022. The Brazilian Naturals fell the most, dropping 6.8% from June to July 2022, sinking to an average 214.8 US cents/lb for the month. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds, decreased by 5.1% and 6.5% respectively, month-on-month in July.

The former averaged 286.07 US cents/lb in July 2022, whilst the latter averaged 255.91 US cents/lb. The downturns are in part due to the average second and third positions of the New York futures market, which fell by 8.1% in July 2022 over June 2022. The average of the second and third positions of the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas decreased by 5.2%. This is reflected in the relatively lower rate of fall of the Robustas group indicator in July 2022, dropping down to an average 100.44 US cents/lb from 103.81 US Cents/lb in June, a 3.2% month-on-month decline.

All the Arabicas lost ground against the Robustas in July 2022. The Brazilian Naturals suffered the biggest loss, with the differential falling by 9.7% month-on-month to 114.36 US Cents/lb from 126.59 US Cents/lb. The Colombian Milds fared the best against the Robustas, despite the differential narrowing by 6.1% to 185.63 US Cents/lb in July 2022 from 197.76 US Cents/lb in June 2022. Against the other Arabicas, on-the-other-hand, the Colombian Milds made second and third consecutive months of gain, increasing the differential to the Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals by 8.2% and 0.1%, to 30.16 US Cents/lb and 71.27/lb, respectively.

The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrunk by 10.1%, falling to 121.24 US Cents/lb in July 2022 from 134.90 US cents/lb in June 2022.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 1.1 percentage point between June and July 2022, reaching 10.1%. Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators, at 6.3% and 6.4% in July 2022. The Brazilian Naturals volatility was the highest amongst the groups, averaging 12.3%, a 1.2 percentage point drop from the previous month. The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for June to July 2022 is -0.6 to 9.6% and -0.2 to 10.8%, respectively. The volatility of the New York futures market gained by 0.2 percentage points, averaging 13.5% for the month of July 2022.

The New York certified stocks decreased 11.2% from the previous month, closing in at 1.03 million bags whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.76 million bags, representing an increase of 2.9%.

Global exports of green beans in June 2022 totalled 10.03 million bags, compared with 9.95 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 0.8%. Three out of the four groups also increased their exports in June 2022, with only the Other Milds recording a fall, dropping by 13.5%. Despite the double-digit increase in June, for the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22 exports of green beans totalled 89.09 million bags, up only 0.1% as compared with 89.04 million bags for the same period in coffee year 2020-21.

The Brazilian Naturals have continued their recovery, first seen in May 2022, in June, up 12.0% at 3.19 million bags as compared with 2.84 million bags in June 2021. The recovery is driven by Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, as the container and shipping issues it faced earlier in the current coffee year continue to be resolved. In May and June 2022, exports of green beans in Brazil increased by 6.2% and 2.3%, respectively, following 10 consecutive months of negative growths. Nevertheless, exports of the Brazilian Naturals remain 6.8% down for the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22 at 29.08 million bags from 31.22 million bags in the same period a year ago, down 8.9%.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 8.9% to 0.98 million bags in June 2022 versus 0.9 million bags in June 2021, driven primarily by Colombia, whose exports of green beans were up 5.4% in June 2022. Despite the jump, exports of the Colombian Milds from October 2021 to June 2022 remain down by 2.3% at 9.5 million bags as compared with 9.71 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2020-21. The sharp increase in the growth of the Colombian Milds is technical, reflecting the 21.0% drop in exports in June 2021, which in turn was due largely to the spill-over of the social unrest occurring throughout Colombia in May, which hampered the normal flow of exports.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 13.5% in June to 2.343 million bags from 2.7 million bags in the same period last year. For the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22, exports of the Other Milds were 17.79 million bags as compared with 17.33 million bags in October 2020 to June 2021, a 2.7% increase. Exports of Robustas totalled 3.52 million bags in June 2022, as compared with 3.5 million bags in June 2021, up 0.5%. Exports of green beans for the first nine months of the current and previous coffee years for Robustas were 32.72 million bags and 30.77 million bags, respectively, up 6.3%.

In October 2021 to June 2022, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 8.5% to 42.26 million bags. During this period, shipments from Brazil declined by 14.2% to 29.5 million bags from 34.4 million bags in October 2020 to June 2021. Continuing issues with availability of containers and shipping capacity, albeit with reported improvements in recent months, and a smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off-season’, are the main reasons for the sharp fall. The volume of exports from Colombia is down 1.6% for the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22 at 9.24 million bags, versus 9.4 million bags for the same period last year. The fall in exports is linked to persistent unfavourable weather conditions reducing the available coffee supply in the country.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania increased by 9.4% to 3.61 million bags in June 2022, and by 17.3% to 34.38 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22. During these same periods, Vietnam’s exports increased by 12.9% to 2.36 million bags, and 20.0% to 22.77 million bags, respectively. India’s shipments were down 1.3% to 0.63 million bags in June 2022, but up 31.0% to 5.54 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22. Exports from Indonesia increased by 15.8% to 0.52 million bags in June 2022 but were down 2.0% to 5.01 million bags in October 2021 to June 2022.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 2.4% to 1.36 million bags in June 2022 from 1.39 million bags in June 2021. For the first nine months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 10.01 million bags as compared with 10.22 million bags in coffee year 2020-21. Uganda’s exports have continued to fall, decreasing by 14.6% in June 2022 and 5.4% in October 2021 to June 2022 as compared with the same period a year ago. Lower production stemming from droughts in some parts of the country’s coffee-growing regions also continues to explain the fall in Uganda’s coffee exports. Exports from Tanzania were down 2.3% in the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22 at 0.83 million bags as compared with 0.85 million bags for the same period last year. Over the same period, exports from Ethiopia increased 14.5% to 2.75 million bags from 2.4 million bags.

In June 2022, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 16.9% to 1.81 million bags as compared with 2.18 million in June 2021. For the first nine months of the current coffee year, exports are down 3.7%, totalling 12.12 million bags as compared with 12.58 million bags in October 2020 to June 2021. The region’s sharp downturn in June was due to the 33.5% fall in exports from Honduras, the largest exporter of the region, which shipped 0.52 million bags in June 2022 as compared with 0.78 million bags in June 2021.

For the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22, Honduras exported 3.85 million bags, down 15.5% from 4.56 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2020-21. Less rainfall during the bean-filling period across several growing regions, a high incidence of rust disease because of hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020, and stumping following an earlier outbreak of rust disease in 2012 led renewal that reached peak production between the 2018-2020 harvests; hence the country’s coffee supply continues to negatively affect exports from Honduras.

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 7.6% in June 2022 to 1.01 million bags versus 0.94 million bags in June 2021. In the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22, a total of 9.05 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing an increase of 4.3% from the 8.68 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. The share of soluble coffee within the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.0% (measured on a moving 12-month average) in June 2022, the same as in June 2021. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, shipping 2.96 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2021-22, followed by India with 1.6 million bags. Indonesia takes third place with 1.25 million bags exported over the same period.

Exports of roasted beans decreased by 11.2% in June 2022 to 72,472 bags, down from 81,610 bags in June 2021.

The latest provisional outlook for total production in coffee year 2021-22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags of the previous coffee year.

World coffee consumption is still projected to grow by 3.3%, to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021-22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020-21. In 2021-22, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.

For the full report, visit: ico.org.

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