The escalating prices prevent more active growth of the industry and lead to the change in preferences of many local consumers with more of them beginning looking for cheaper products. Euromonitor International analysts confirm this, noting that current negative economic factors may lead to stagnation of both tea and coffee sectors of Germany in the middle term.

Lina Sidorenke, a senior analyst with Euromonitor International, said, “[According to our data,] inflation, a prevailing concern in Germany, is exerting a considerable influence over consumer behaviour. The prices of daily essentials, including coffee, have witnessed upward spirals, prompting consumers to be more judicious in their purchasing decisions.”

She said that the impact of inflation is visible in coffee, where consumers are increasingly opting for cheaper brands and exploring discounters to address rising costs. “Rising prices have encouraged many brands and retailers to offer promotions and discounts to drive up volumes. Still, despite the increasing prices of food and beverages, German consumers remain loyal coffee drinkers, as coffee is part of their everyday routines, thereby supporting positive retail demand at present.” Euromonitor reports that sustainability in coffee remains a dominant theme both for consumers and brands. For example, single serve coffee capsules have come under scrutiny for their contribution to environmental waste. According to the global market research firm, several players have introduced compostable packaging solutions to address these concerns. Effectively communicating these sustainability features has become paramount, as consumers increasingly seek eco-friendly coffee products.

Sidorenke explained that “the demand for fresh coffee beans is on the rise in Germany and continues to pose a threat to coffee pods and/or capsule machines. There is increasing availability of fully automated coffee machines that can actually compete with single-serve solutions, both in terms of price and taste.” She said in the long term, an increasing number of consumers are expected to switch to fresh coffee beans, especially as they are perceived as offering a richer coffee experience.

Mintel, shares the same view, noting that due to cost issues more and more German customers prefer to consume coffee at home instead of visiting cafés. A recent report from the global market research firm states that given the current economic backdrop, the reintroduction of 19 percent VAT and the overall strained financial situation in Germany, many consumers are trying to bring the café feeling home.

According to Mintel, most local customers are turning to inexpensive products and blends that are based on barista-made coffee. Instant coffee and coffee blends are the perfect solution for coffee lovers who are careful with their money. Mintel analysts believe that in the short term, this ongoing financial pressure on households holds further potential for more cost-effective formats. Companies can take advantage of changing consumer behaviour. Younger target groups in particular respond to barista-made coffee drinks at home. Both analysts and local coffee companies said this may all be good news for coffee brands, but the situation is highly problematic for cafés.

Cafés had a tough time during the pandemic due to constant closures. And now they are once again feeling the pressure of rising living costs, which are being exacerbated by the reintroduction of 19 percent VAT in the hospitality industry of Germany.

At the same time, they are threatened by outlets that do not specialise in coffee. For example, percent of consumers actually buy their coffee from a bakery or retailer, not in a café. Due to ongoing income pressures, more local consumers have become disloyal to their coffee brands, which created serious problems even for some major local players. Furthermore, the market is highly competitive and highly fragmented.

Premium brands in particular have been hit hard. And even the market leader Nescafé, which continues to lead the instant coffee segment, has been faced with downward trend. Some leading representatives of the German coffee sector shared that the ever tightening regulations along with climate change may lead to the decline of production of some coffee varieties.

Thomas Eckel, coffee sommelier and owner of the Murnau Coffee Roastery, one of the largest roasteries in Bavaria, in an interview with German Meininger business paper, said the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which aims to keep products linked to deforestation off the European market will  oblige companies to prove that their supply chains do not contribute to deforestation and that environmental, labour and human rights are respected. That may create some problems for the industry, as all of the companies will require support from farmers.

Eckel has also expressed some serious concerns about the effects of climate change on the entire industry and German coffee producers. “Coffee is one of the agricultural products most affected by climate change. We should take this very seriously. In general, we will definitely not drink coffee the way we do today in 2050. Many cell-based coffee products are also coming onto the market. These will help to close the gap in coffee supply.”

The current market challenges are putting additional pressure on leading German coffee manufacturers and could be associated with serious losses for them already in the short-term. In contrast to previous years, they will be unable to increase prices for their products to compensate their losses due to recent
accusations in price fixing.

For example, at the beginning of the current year, the local trading company Bartels-Langness accused Melitta of having formed a Germany-wide coffee roasting cartel with competitors Dallmayr, Kraft Foods (now Mondelez) and Tchibo between 2002 and 2008, which agreed on coffee prices. During this period, Melitta is said to have charged prices that were around 11 percent too high. Most of the companies declined to comment, however all of them believe the pressure from regulators on the market will continue to grow in Q4 of this year and in 2025.

Tea Struggles but Shows Resilience

Euromonitor’s Sidorenke added that similar to coffee, inflation is impacting Germany’s tea sector. “As inflation drives up the cost of everyday essentials, including tea, local consumers are making thoughtful choices in an attempt to manage their expenses. One prominent shift is towards private label and
discounters, where cost savings become paramount. Established tea brands are
responding by offering competitive promotions and discounts to retain their share.”

She said that at the same time, it would appear that the medium-priced segment is struggling the most, as consumers either turn towards cheaper options or they can still afford their favourite premium brands. “Although the cost-of-living crisis is forcing many consumers to reduce their expenses, tea remains popular, especially as it is considered a natural remedy to strengthen one’s immune system or simply for staying hydrated throughout the flu season.”

Germany-based tea manufacturers also said the existing problems seriously complicate their further development. Dirk Wollenhaupt, managing director o, which imports and blends teas, said the current situation remains complex, however the company sees potential for its further growth that will be achieved by the rise of efficiency of

Due to escalating costs, more German consumers are drinking coffee at home rather than in cafés.  “The German tea market is currently restrained and challenging. However, we expect a positive development in the medium term. The market has changed and the challenges have increased. In order to meet these challenges, we have adapted our processes and implemented many measures to increase efficiency,” he said, adding that being a producer of tea blends, Wollenhaupt has pursued a strategy of operational excellence over the past few months and orientated all processes towards being able to optimally serve its customers.

“The aspect of rapid availability and reliable, punctual delivery is extremely important in the tea market. We have invested intensively in the training and development of our staff and optimised production processes. In addition to
these measures, we have strengthened our sales activities with a sales office in the USA for the North American tea market,” Wollenhaupt explained.

Despite the existing problems, in its latest report Tee Report 2024, the German Tea & Herbal Infusions Association (GTHIA) revealed that most of local players have been able to adapt to the current realities of complex economics. Per the report, most medium-sized and family-run German tea companies were able to
consolidate and some even expanded their economic success in 2023-2024. The GTHIA said this was mainly due to their high-quality and innovative range, which enjoys big demand both in the domestic market and abroad.

The report finds that even though per capita consumption fell slightly in 2023 versus 2022, tea manufacturers have been able to record increasing sales. The GTHIA believes that is a sign of the strength of the German tea industry, noting that new, innovative products such as cold brew teas or functional teas, manufacturers are arousing the desire, especially among younger target groups.

Optimism for Future Growth

Even with the tough economics, most local producers and analysts expect that both coffee and especially tea sectors of Germany will resume its growth in the mid-term. On the product side, Dirk Wollenhaupt said there is the ever increasing demand for functional teas, ie, teas with additives such as melatonin, minerals and vitamins, and have greatly expanded our range in this area. “Other trends that we are observing in the German tea market and can serve with our products are wellness teas, iced teas, milk teas and mocktails with tea. The demand for high-quality green teas is also increasing. Sales of matcha in particular continue to grow in Germany due to its wide range of applications. With our partner in Japan and an extensive, high-quality range, we are very well positioned and are now one of the largest suppliers in Germany.”

He added that even though tea consumption in Germany fell slightly in 2023 compared to 2022, it remains at a high level. “Due to numerous new applications as an ingredient, as a beverage base or as a cocktail, we firmly believe that tea consumption will continue to rise in the medium term.”

As for coffee, most of local analysts expect the segment of caffeine-free coffee will provide a serious impetus for growth for the entire German coffee sector already during the period of 2024-2025. Mintel analysts report that more than half of 16 to 24-year-olds would welcome a larger range of caffeine-free products and would also be willing to pay more for such alternatives. This offers companies and brands opportunities for innovation in the area of low-caffeine and caffeine-free alternatives, for example in thecdrinking chocolate and tea segment.

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