For many years Brazil’s annual harvests, particularly of Arabica beans, have had a significant influence on international coffee prices. Brazil’s sometimes rocky economic situation does have an effect on coffee bean harvests – and the results show up in overall production for various bean types, in organic production trends, and in the country’s total export volumes.

The 2023-2024 coffee harvest season in Brazil was marked by a significant increase in production compared with the previous year. This surge was primarily driven by favourable weather conditions and improved farming practices. Brazil’s total coffee production in 2024 exceeded that of 2023 by a substantial margin.

Brazil is renowned for its high-quality Arabica beans, which are prized for both their flavour profile and their aroma. However, the country also produces Robusta beans, a lowercost alternative, whose reputation has been improving over the last few years. The relative proportions of Arabica and Robusta in Brazil’s harvests do fluctuate from year to year, influenced by factors such as market demand and economic incentives.

In general, Arabica beans continue to dominate Brazil’s coffee production, accounting for asignificantly larger share of the total harvest. However, Robusta production has also shown growth in recent years, driven by increasing demand for lower-priced coffee options.

Organic coffee production has been gaining traction in Brazil, as consumers increasingly seek products that are grown without the use of synthetic pesticides and fertilisers. While organic coffee still represents a relatively small portion of Brazil’s total coffee output, it has experienced steady growth in recent years.

Several factors have contributed to the expansion of organic coffee production in Brazil. These include increased consumer awareness of the benefits of organic products, government support for organic agriculture, and the development of sustainable farming practices.
Brazil’s coffee products reach markets around the world. The volume of coffee exports from Brazil varies depending on the changing dynamics of global demand, competition from other producing countries, and worldwide economic conditions.

Brazil’s coffee bean harvests play a vital role in the global coffee market. The country’s production of high-quality Arabica beans, coupled with its increasing focus on organic coffee, has solidified its position as a leading exporter. Brazil has maintained its strong position due to strong demand for its beans from countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan. However, the country has also faced competition from other coffee-producing nations, particularly Vietnam and Colombia.

Several factors are influencing Brazil’s coffee production, including these four:
Weather: Climate conditions, such as rainfall and temperature, can significantly impact coffee yields. Excessive rainfall or droughts can negatively affect crop health and productivity.
Pests and diseases: Coffee plants, particularly, Arabica, are susceptible to various pests and diseases, which can reduce yields and quality. Effective pest control measures are essential for maintaining healthy crops.
Soil quality: The quality of the soil in coffee-growing regions is crucial for plant health and productivity. Poor soil conditions can limit crop yields and affect bean quality.
Economic factors: Economic factors, such as the price of coffee beans and the cost of production, can influence the profitability of coffee farming. Low coffee prices or rising production costs can discourage farmers from investing in coffee cultivation.

While weather, pests, soil quality, and economic conditions can influence coffee production, Brazil’s ability to adapt to changing market dynamics and invest in sustainable farming practices positions it well for continued success in the years to come.

The Impact of Climate Change
Coffee production is fragile, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports maintain that climate change will reduce worldwide yields on average and decrease land suitable for growing coffee by 2050.

Climate change is affecting Brazil’s coffee industry in ways which may, in the end, become detrimental to everyone – from the growers all the way downstream to those who consume their coffee.

“A Systematic Review on the Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Agrosystems” is the January 2023 research article published in the prestigious PLANTS science journal. The six co-authors of this study reviewed 148 records from literature considering the effects of climate change and climate variability on coffee production, covering countries mostly from three continents (America, Africa, and Asia).

The main effects of climate change have been hotter temperatures and lower moisture, causing plants and cherries to not only be unable to fully flourish and bloom, but die while developing. Since the majority of Brazil’s coffee plantations are below 6,000 feet, they are being impacted in tangible ways by hotter temperatures.

Coffee plants need very specific temperatures, soil, and environments to grow in and continually produce coffee each year. With the rising temperature and lack of rainfall and humidity, coffee plants aren’t growing and reproducing as they usually would. Climate change has caused typical weather patterns to be inconsistent, making harvest times and crop quality nearly impossible to control and predict. Though rainfall is lacking for some growing regions, it’s happening more often for others, resulting in more harvesting and picking cycles, which is great.
However, this means higher labour costs than usual, making it harder on farmers.

The hotter temperatures have caused plants to lose several growing days in their usual harvest cycle. This is because heat can disturb a plant’s metabolism, driving stress in the plant and possibly reducing its photosynthetic efficiency. While hotter regions have caused harm to some growing regions, it has opened up new areas where coffee can be grown. With the increased temperatures, coffee can now grow at higher altitudes. Twenty years ago, coffee couldn’t grow in altitudes above 6,000 feet, but now, some of the best coffees are coming from these regions. However, the majority of coffee plantations are below 6,000 feet and are being impacted by the hotter temperatures. The main effects of climate change have been hotter temperatures and lower moisture, preventing plants and cherries from fully flourishing and blooming, but also dying while developing.

Climate change is a reason for the rapid spread of coffee leaf rust, a parasite that feeds off the leaves of the Arabica plant, and steals their food, causing the leaves to spot until they fall off and the plant dies. In the 1800s, this disease killed off most of the world’s coffee supply, and in 2012, another horrific outbreak resulted in over three billion dollars in damages. Coffee leaf rust can be controlled and contained by applying fungicides during wet seasons. However, it is only at higher altitudes and cooler temperatures that the disease struggles to reproduce and spread. This is still a very real problem that farmers face.

The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) is a national government agency that manages agricultural policies and supply and provides information on Brazil’s agricultural harvest. In September of 2024, Conab lowered its forecast for 2024 Brazil’s coffee production: 54.79 million bags from 58.81 million as it forecast in May, due to the dry weather and extreme heat the crop experienced during its development phase.

This would put production down 0.5 percent from last year. Arabica production was lowered to 39.59 million bags from the previous forecast of 42.11 million. Conab’s forecast is up 1.7 percent from 2023 due to increased planted area. Yields were lowered, despite this being an ‘on year’ in the country’s biennial cycle.

Robusta production was forecast previously at 15.2 million bags, down from 16.71 million which had been the estimate in May and down six percent from a year ago. Brazil’s weather
conditions are not expected, but there could be a gradual increase in the number and frequency of showers as humidity starts to build for the rainy season. Greater rainfall is possible in the last days of September or early October. Until then, most
of the rain will remain too light to induce any flowering. ICE Arabica stocks are down to 837,656 bags, their lowest level since 4 September. The amount pending review is down to 6,081 bags, which is the lowest in more than six months.

UN FAO economist Fabio Palmeri shared his views about Brazil’s challenges and opportunities, “After negatively affecting the 2024 coffee output, prolonged dry weather conditions are raising concerns over the potential impact on the 2025 crop. In the first nine months of 2024, Brazil exported two million tonnes of coffee, 40 percent more than in the corresponding period last year, with export earnings reaching a record high of USD $8.5 billion, amid strong international demand. Arabica coffee remained the most exported variety. However, exports of Robusta and Conilon coffee surged in 2024, with shipments increasing by 170 percent compared to 2023, amid lower availabilities from Vietnam.”

Palmeri made a special note of the fact that coffee exports increased despite persistent logistics bottlenecks, including limited space at Brazilian ports coupled with greater demand for shipping containers.

Well Positioned for Continued Growth

In tabulating Brazil’s national coffee consumption data for the period from November 2022 to October 2023, the Brazilian Association of the Coffee Industry (ABIC) found that there had been an increase of 1.64 percent as compared to November 2021 to October 2022. This volume represents 39.4 percent of the 2023 harvest, which was 55.07 million bags, according to Conab. In the period from November 2021 to October 2022, the volume consumed inside Brazil represented 41.9 percent of the harvest, which was 50.9 million bags.

As the world shifts to low-carbon economic sectors and markets, Brazil’s rich ecosystems can enable it to discover some lasting growth opportunities created by that shift. Threequarters of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions result from land-use change and agriculture. This implies that Brazil can and should make it a greater priority to halt spreading deforestation while transitioning towards low-carbon agriculture.

The scientific consensus is clear: Brazil’s rainforest in the Amazon is close to a tipping point, beyond which it cannot generate enough rainfall to sustain the national ecosystem. This is the power that fuelled Brazil’s growth: the agriculture, hydropower, water supply, industries. That same endangered ecosystem provides a full spectrum of environmental services to all of Latin America and the Caribbean as well as to the rest of the world.

Halting deforestation and scaling-up climatesmart land use can be done within Brazil’s agriculture sector while simultaneously increasing total productivity. It is entirely possible for Brazil to fully integrate agriculture, and other businesses, into the future green economy.

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The preliminary main data for 2023 has just been issued to membership by the International Tea Committee (ITC), and the 25th Plenary Session of the Intergovernmental Group (IGG) on Tea of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recently ended. Tea is thus fully in the focus with all the concerned parties: the farmers who produce the leaf, the factories that process it, those who trade, export, import and ship tea, as well as the packers, the multinationals, medium and small operators, the retailers, and the consumers who buy mass market, traditional, premium or novelty tea.

Considered an agricultural product that provides income to millions of smallholders, in particular in remote rural areas, tea is labelled as a ‘poverty relief crop’, and as such, is instrumental for keeping populations on the lands. Often, these farmers will also grow coffee as well as herbs and spices, which all together can provide a fair income. Although many are living reasonably well off their plot, others have no market access and remain poor. When farmgate prices are not rewarding, the leaf quality inevitably goes down, before a possible switch to other crops.

Whilst the main Western consumer markets in North America and Europe are all entirely addicted to their daily morning cups of tea and/or coffee, the global trade pattern of tea and coffee differs greatly, which may help to understand why tea is most often the cheapest cup on display. The fact is that only a relatively small share of the global tea production – ie, just 26 percent in 2023 – is exported, whilst three quarters are consumed by the home markets, which compares to over two thirds of the global coffee production being exported, and only about 34 percent being consumed domestically. Coffee, therefore, gets much more attention in the West and has been benefitting from intense promotion schemes for decades, giving the product a high cup profile that tea has not been able to access to date.

Aerating Vietnam Snow Shan Tea. Image credit: Vanessa Facenda

A first step towards enhancing the product profile globally may well be the introduction of the annual International Tea Day, which was approved by the UN General Assembly in December 2019 and has since been celebrated on 21 May every year. Following the Covid pandemic, the traditionally observed health benefits of tea are consistently highlighted in both consumer and producer markets, and more research is ongoing to take the issue further. However, despite several attempts to set up an interactive global platform for sharing relevant health related data, no effective steps have been taken towards this key target.

It may be of interest to note that some coffee ‘VIPs’ have been heard saying that tea is so obviously good for peoples’ health, that it does not need any further promotion, whilst coffee has to invest continuously to demonstrate that the cup does not carry any adverse health effects, a statement which does provide food for thought.

Production vs consumption

According to data issued by the London-based ITC, which publishes an Annual Bulletin of Statistics, tea production continues to steadily increase year over year and stands at 6.604 million metric tonnes in 2023, ie, up by 2 percent over 2022, and up by 26 percent over the past ten years. At the same time, consumption continues to lag, with an apparent 2023 consumption tonnage of 6.212 million tonnes, hence a gap of 392,000 tonnes between supply and demand, equivalent to about four times the US tea consumption in 2023. The latest provisional data issued by the ITC to membership show that this gap between world tea supply and world tea absorption was the highest ever in 2023 – bear in mind the trade disruptions due to political conflicts which weigh heavily on traditional consumer market patterns, together with the currently ongoing disruptions of transport logistics, in particular in the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal for supply to continental Europe.

China Chengdu tea market alley. Image credit: Barbara Dufrêne

The preliminary data for 2023 shows that there have been no major changes in the main market structure on the supply side, with China remaining the world’s leading producer and continuing to dominate with a production of 3.181 million tonnes, which represents a 49 percent share of the global production. This is quite overwhelming, although domestic consumption absorbs about 88 percent of this production. India holds the second spot with a production tonnage of 1.365 million tonnes, of which less than 17 percent has been available for export. The two giants are followed by the big black tea exporters: Kenya with 353,000 tonnes, Sri Lanka with 251,000 tonnes, Vietnam with 174,000 tonnes, and Indonesia with 125,000 tonnes. Amongst these major tea producers, one must also list Turkey, with a global production of 246,000 tonnes, which is mainly consumed by the domestic market.

The remaining 30 or so countries that produce tea today represent less than ten percent of the global volume, all with volumes less than 100,000 tonnes. This, of course, in no way impacts their quality potential, terroir or specialty tea profile, as they are world respected origins such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Nepal, Malawi and Rwanda – all renowned for their premium quality teas.

Concerning the consumer markets, demand appears to not be fully recovered from the Covid disruptions and is negatively impacted by the various political conflicts that interfere with the traditional trade flows. Thus, the global tonnage of exported teas, which had remained fairly stable, with an average level of around 1.750 million tonnes every year, over the past ten years, has slumped to 1.655 million tonnes in 2023, representing only 26.3 percent of the world production.

The ITC data show a consistent slowdown in the import volumes for all the big consumer markets in 2023 compared to 2022, with the exception of Pakistan, the world’s number one tea importer, keeping the import tonnage at the unchanged level of 236,000 tonnes. All the ‘big players’ show reduced tea import volumes in 2023, namely:

• USA: 104,240 tonnes, -13 percent;
• UK: 83,550 tonnes, -16 percent;
• Russian Federation/CIS: 220,000 tonnes, -5 percent;
• (Rest of) Europe: 129,000 tonnes, -8 percent;
• Central Asian markets: 540,430 tonnes, -5 percent;
• African markets: 344,235 tonnes, -7 percent, amongst which are the two main players (Egypt with 72,000 tonnes, -16 percent and Morocco with 60,000 tonnes, -27 percent) show significant reductions.

Although it is a fact that most producing countries are actively promoting domestic tea consumption, the export markets remain of vital importance to their economy, thus many believe it is urgently necessary to restore the balance between supply and demand. The ITC CEO, Manuja Peiris, recently travelled to East Africa and had many discussions with tea board officials and market operators in Kenya, Rwanda and Malawi. He reported that the Mombasa Tea Auction, the biggest in the world, which handles over 500,000 tonnes of tea per year, is heavily glutted with “unfresh teas,” which remain unsold auction after auction, take up precious storage space and severely obstruct the market.

Indonesia factory leaf variety. Image credit: Barbara Dufrêne

Peiris said he was surprised to learn that many years ago a huge oversupply of coffee had occurred in Brazil, generating such a dramatic price slump that the government decided to act. First, the excess coffee beans were withdrawn from the market and used as fuel for railway engines, replacing fire wood. Next, the government contracted scientific research to find a way to process the beans into a storable and convenient format. It took some time to eliminate the oversupply of green beans and more time to elaborate an attractive soluble coffee extract, but the prices moved up swiftly and some ten years later the Nescafé soluble coffee brand set out to conquer the world. Several decades later Brazil became the world’s number one coffee producer and the number one coffee consuming market (by volume) after intensely promoting quality cups locally. Peiris wonders whether this impressive success story could be adapted to the tea market.

Added value and diversification

There is the huge potential for integrating tea extracts into ready-to-drink (RTD) teas and other cola drinks, which launched in the 1990s in Europe, followed by many evolving RTD launches ever since, despite the drawback of a small sugar content not yet overcome. Instant teas have been extremely successful even before in North America, where brewed iced tea has been the favourite cup for a long time. Chinese and Japanese tea majors have been investing in canned RTD specialty tea and bottled RTD mass market teas for decades and these tea extract-based soft drinks have been spreading widely.

Matcha Organic Japan’s tea field and factory, Shizuoka, Japan. Image credit: Yumi Nakatsugawa

More pricey segments continue to be explored by fine-tuning premium origins and also targeting specific health options. In searching of some more massive innovation, it might be of interest to recall a challenging debate between the former FAO official in charge of IGG Tea, Kaison Chang (who retired in 2018), and some Chinese tea science experts, about a possible “Global Road Safety Campaign,” which promotes small RTD cans or bottles containing a strong and sweetened ‘safe driving tea’. Road safety is a huge issue everywhere, with overtired drivers, not only in China and India, but everywhere in the world. If such bottles of ‘safe driving tea’ were formally approved, labelled as such, and given official support from the UN World Health, the UN FAO, as well as from producer country authorities, their global launch would combine many key assets. With tea extraction factories operating in many producing countries that could cooperate readily in such a Road Safety Campaign, the first result would be the resorption of considerable volumes of leaf.

Looking forward

Whilst there are happy tea farmers, successful tea brands, and thriving tea houses, there are many in the tea industry who are struggling with unrewarding prices, low quality cups, and the lack of global support and high-level genuine product promotion. There are many efforts developed in the consumer markets to enhance product knowledge through tea teaching, tea training, tea tasting competitions, tea awards and more, but there is no global platform and no global structure for providing shared visibility; nor is there a universally supported reference message underlining the goodness of the cup.

Coordinating research about the health benefits of tea would be a great step forward. Establishing a platform to allow direct market access for small producers has been a discussion item on the IGG Tea agenda for several years. There seems to be a growing worry about the lack of an efficient team prepared to take action and follow up the several constructive proposals tabled during the UN FAO IGG Tea plenary meetings, which take place every two years. Whilst they readily take stock, there does not seem to be any follow up action, which is creating true concern.

• Barbara Dufrêne is the former Secretary General of the European Tea Committee and editor of La Nouvelle du Thé. She may be reached at: b-dufrêne@orange.fr.

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Firsd Tea recently released a first-of-its-kind Sustainability Perspectives Report in 2022 to capture the tea and coffee industry’s views on how well the tea sector performs in areas of sustainable practices. In conjunction with Tea & Coffee Trade Journal and a third-party research firm, the study was developed with guidance from industry peers and an academic research and think-tank. Respondents of the survey included a diverse spectrum of wholesalers, importers, exporters, retailers, and others based in North America, Europe, and Asia. While many studies have examined consumers’ perceptions of sustainability, this study targeted professionals in tea, coffee, and related industries to understand their concerns and views on the tea industry’s sustainability performance.

The findings of the research can generally be grouped into perspectives about three areas: environment, people, and certifications. Part three of this series focuses on sustainability and certifications.

As a quick recap from the previous coverage, the survey of tea and coffee professionals revealed:

1. Industry professionals show strong concerns about the environmental impact on their businesses — 80 per cent are worried about climate change’s effects on their operations.
2. Respondents are generally split as to the tea industry’s performance in some human welfare areas, like gender equity and poverty reduction.

The survey also revealed some surprising attitudes about sustainability and certifications. Sustainability was not a high-priority consideration for industry respondents in terms of their decisions to carry specific teas in their product offerings. Respondents ranked flavour (96 per cent), leaf grade (90 per cent), origin/terroir (88 per cent) and price (83 per cent) above sustainability (79 per cent). In addition, a significant majority of Industry respondents (85 per cent) view organic certification as the most valued certification standard among consumers. Certifications more closely associated with sustainability fared lower in perceived value, with Fair Trade at 68 per cent, non-GMO at 58 per cent, and Rainforest Alliance/UTZ at 56 per cent. Taken together, these findings suggest that sustainability is seen as lower in importance among consumers, and that sustainability-focused certifications are even lower in priority.

Then there is the obvious disconnect between concerns about environment and human welfare and the prominence of organic certification. Do consumers mistakenly view organic certification as a sustainability credential? The organic programme was never designed to serve as a mark of sustainability; its standards and compliance measures do not include any forms of evaluation of environmental or human welfare impacts. From the producers’ perspective, compliance with organic certifications does overlap with certain compliance practices of other certifications, (e.g., non-GMO and regenerative agriculture), but these are also not certifications with a dominant emphasis on the people plus planet issues of sustainability.

Mixed results concerning certifications

On the surface, the findings suggest that industry respondents see consumers as more concerned about the impact of tea purchase decisions on their immediate and local well-being: be it price, absence of pollutants (e.g., organic), and overall food quality. However, Mintel Consulting’s recently published global 2022 Sustainability Barometer showed that consumers who are more invested in sustainable purchase decisions do rely on certifications as an important guide in making those choices.

Write-in feedback from respondents reflect split attitudes toward the role of certifications. Some respondents feel more certification, and more enforcement of certification practices is needed. Others feel that certification often places too much focus on administrative paper-pushing and not enough on-the-ground support. Some commenters believe certification alone is too costly for small farmers and not transparent enough in terms of actual practices recorded and activities in the value chain. The most often repeated comments regarding certification call for more action in terms of less economic burden for growers and legal/compulsory compliance across a unified, streamlined certification scheme for organisations.

Any discrepancies in sustainability across consumer perceptions, business practices, and certifications may soon face a re-alignment. Governments across the globe have passed or are drafting legal guidance that will require businesses to further comply with sustainability practices. For example, the European Union published its Draft Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive in February of 2022. If ratified in its current form, the directive would require companies to identify and seek to rectify negative impacts on the environment and human welfare that are found within the business’s value chain. In the United States, California passed the California Transparency In Supply Chains Act, with the explicit purpose of increasing awareness of human welfare issues within organisational supply chains. These are just a couple of examples of laws directed toward enforcement of corporate sustainability practices. As these laws develop, certification bodies will likely adjust their certification process to streamline the path to legal compliance or to exceed the legal standards so that their certification badge stands out as a mark of greater distinction.

When viewed as an integrated whole, the report findings indicate that sustainability certifications may be unbalanced in terms of their perceived value to tea consumers. This may be partially due to the certification’s role in environmental and human welfare aspects of sustainability, and as a factor of public sentiment towards sustainability initiatives. Additionally, industry members tend to see more of the transparency issues and economic costs associated with certification as obstacles to providing greater value in tea sustainability.

• Jason Walker is marketing director of Firsd Tea North America. Prior to his work with Firsd Tea, Walker served in a variety of roles in tea and beverage business capacities. His experience includes business services for small tea companies, a top-ranked online destination for tea consumer education and co-founding a coffee business. His insights draw upon his diverse range of experience in sales, operations and management in the tea world. He may be reached at: jason.walker@firsdtea.com.

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