For many years Brazil’s annual harvests, particularly of Arabica beans, have had a significant influence on international coffee prices. Brazil’s sometimes rocky economic situation does have an effect on coffee bean harvests – and the results show up in overall production for various bean types, in organic production trends, and in the country’s total export volumes.

The 2023-2024 coffee harvest season in Brazil was marked by a significant increase in production compared with the previous year. This surge was primarily driven by favourable weather conditions and improved farming practices. Brazil’s total coffee production in 2024 exceeded that of 2023 by a substantial margin.

Brazil is renowned for its high-quality Arabica beans, which are prized for both their flavour profile and their aroma. However, the country also produces Robusta beans, a lowercost alternative, whose reputation has been improving over the last few years. The relative proportions of Arabica and Robusta in Brazil’s harvests do fluctuate from year to year, influenced by factors such as market demand and economic incentives.

In general, Arabica beans continue to dominate Brazil’s coffee production, accounting for asignificantly larger share of the total harvest. However, Robusta production has also shown growth in recent years, driven by increasing demand for lower-priced coffee options.

Organic coffee production has been gaining traction in Brazil, as consumers increasingly seek products that are grown without the use of synthetic pesticides and fertilisers. While organic coffee still represents a relatively small portion of Brazil’s total coffee output, it has experienced steady growth in recent years.

Several factors have contributed to the expansion of organic coffee production in Brazil. These include increased consumer awareness of the benefits of organic products, government support for organic agriculture, and the development of sustainable farming practices.
Brazil’s coffee products reach markets around the world. The volume of coffee exports from Brazil varies depending on the changing dynamics of global demand, competition from other producing countries, and worldwide economic conditions.

Brazil’s coffee bean harvests play a vital role in the global coffee market. The country’s production of high-quality Arabica beans, coupled with its increasing focus on organic coffee, has solidified its position as a leading exporter. Brazil has maintained its strong position due to strong demand for its beans from countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan. However, the country has also faced competition from other coffee-producing nations, particularly Vietnam and Colombia.

Several factors are influencing Brazil’s coffee production, including these four:
Weather: Climate conditions, such as rainfall and temperature, can significantly impact coffee yields. Excessive rainfall or droughts can negatively affect crop health and productivity.
Pests and diseases: Coffee plants, particularly, Arabica, are susceptible to various pests and diseases, which can reduce yields and quality. Effective pest control measures are essential for maintaining healthy crops.
Soil quality: The quality of the soil in coffee-growing regions is crucial for plant health and productivity. Poor soil conditions can limit crop yields and affect bean quality.
Economic factors: Economic factors, such as the price of coffee beans and the cost of production, can influence the profitability of coffee farming. Low coffee prices or rising production costs can discourage farmers from investing in coffee cultivation.

While weather, pests, soil quality, and economic conditions can influence coffee production, Brazil’s ability to adapt to changing market dynamics and invest in sustainable farming practices positions it well for continued success in the years to come.

The Impact of Climate Change
Coffee production is fragile, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports maintain that climate change will reduce worldwide yields on average and decrease land suitable for growing coffee by 2050.

Climate change is affecting Brazil’s coffee industry in ways which may, in the end, become detrimental to everyone – from the growers all the way downstream to those who consume their coffee.

“A Systematic Review on the Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Agrosystems” is the January 2023 research article published in the prestigious PLANTS science journal. The six co-authors of this study reviewed 148 records from literature considering the effects of climate change and climate variability on coffee production, covering countries mostly from three continents (America, Africa, and Asia).

The main effects of climate change have been hotter temperatures and lower moisture, causing plants and cherries to not only be unable to fully flourish and bloom, but die while developing. Since the majority of Brazil’s coffee plantations are below 6,000 feet, they are being impacted in tangible ways by hotter temperatures.

Coffee plants need very specific temperatures, soil, and environments to grow in and continually produce coffee each year. With the rising temperature and lack of rainfall and humidity, coffee plants aren’t growing and reproducing as they usually would. Climate change has caused typical weather patterns to be inconsistent, making harvest times and crop quality nearly impossible to control and predict. Though rainfall is lacking for some growing regions, it’s happening more often for others, resulting in more harvesting and picking cycles, which is great.
However, this means higher labour costs than usual, making it harder on farmers.

The hotter temperatures have caused plants to lose several growing days in their usual harvest cycle. This is because heat can disturb a plant’s metabolism, driving stress in the plant and possibly reducing its photosynthetic efficiency. While hotter regions have caused harm to some growing regions, it has opened up new areas where coffee can be grown. With the increased temperatures, coffee can now grow at higher altitudes. Twenty years ago, coffee couldn’t grow in altitudes above 6,000 feet, but now, some of the best coffees are coming from these regions. However, the majority of coffee plantations are below 6,000 feet and are being impacted by the hotter temperatures. The main effects of climate change have been hotter temperatures and lower moisture, preventing plants and cherries from fully flourishing and blooming, but also dying while developing.

Climate change is a reason for the rapid spread of coffee leaf rust, a parasite that feeds off the leaves of the Arabica plant, and steals their food, causing the leaves to spot until they fall off and the plant dies. In the 1800s, this disease killed off most of the world’s coffee supply, and in 2012, another horrific outbreak resulted in over three billion dollars in damages. Coffee leaf rust can be controlled and contained by applying fungicides during wet seasons. However, it is only at higher altitudes and cooler temperatures that the disease struggles to reproduce and spread. This is still a very real problem that farmers face.

The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) is a national government agency that manages agricultural policies and supply and provides information on Brazil’s agricultural harvest. In September of 2024, Conab lowered its forecast for 2024 Brazil’s coffee production: 54.79 million bags from 58.81 million as it forecast in May, due to the dry weather and extreme heat the crop experienced during its development phase.

This would put production down 0.5 percent from last year. Arabica production was lowered to 39.59 million bags from the previous forecast of 42.11 million. Conab’s forecast is up 1.7 percent from 2023 due to increased planted area. Yields were lowered, despite this being an ‘on year’ in the country’s biennial cycle.

Robusta production was forecast previously at 15.2 million bags, down from 16.71 million which had been the estimate in May and down six percent from a year ago. Brazil’s weather
conditions are not expected, but there could be a gradual increase in the number and frequency of showers as humidity starts to build for the rainy season. Greater rainfall is possible in the last days of September or early October. Until then, most
of the rain will remain too light to induce any flowering. ICE Arabica stocks are down to 837,656 bags, their lowest level since 4 September. The amount pending review is down to 6,081 bags, which is the lowest in more than six months.

UN FAO economist Fabio Palmeri shared his views about Brazil’s challenges and opportunities, “After negatively affecting the 2024 coffee output, prolonged dry weather conditions are raising concerns over the potential impact on the 2025 crop. In the first nine months of 2024, Brazil exported two million tonnes of coffee, 40 percent more than in the corresponding period last year, with export earnings reaching a record high of USD $8.5 billion, amid strong international demand. Arabica coffee remained the most exported variety. However, exports of Robusta and Conilon coffee surged in 2024, with shipments increasing by 170 percent compared to 2023, amid lower availabilities from Vietnam.”

Palmeri made a special note of the fact that coffee exports increased despite persistent logistics bottlenecks, including limited space at Brazilian ports coupled with greater demand for shipping containers.

Well Positioned for Continued Growth

In tabulating Brazil’s national coffee consumption data for the period from November 2022 to October 2023, the Brazilian Association of the Coffee Industry (ABIC) found that there had been an increase of 1.64 percent as compared to November 2021 to October 2022. This volume represents 39.4 percent of the 2023 harvest, which was 55.07 million bags, according to Conab. In the period from November 2021 to October 2022, the volume consumed inside Brazil represented 41.9 percent of the harvest, which was 50.9 million bags.

As the world shifts to low-carbon economic sectors and markets, Brazil’s rich ecosystems can enable it to discover some lasting growth opportunities created by that shift. Threequarters of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions result from land-use change and agriculture. This implies that Brazil can and should make it a greater priority to halt spreading deforestation while transitioning towards low-carbon agriculture.

The scientific consensus is clear: Brazil’s rainforest in the Amazon is close to a tipping point, beyond which it cannot generate enough rainfall to sustain the national ecosystem. This is the power that fuelled Brazil’s growth: the agriculture, hydropower, water supply, industries. That same endangered ecosystem provides a full spectrum of environmental services to all of Latin America and the Caribbean as well as to the rest of the world.

Halting deforestation and scaling-up climatesmart land use can be done within Brazil’s agriculture sector while simultaneously increasing total productivity. It is entirely possible for Brazil to fully integrate agriculture, and other businesses, into the future green economy.

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While this increasingly extreme weather may have been a wakeup call for some, World Coffee Research (WCR) has long anticipated these threats and is on a mission to mitigate the effects these changes will have, and is having, on our coffee industry, by breeding and growing more climate resistant coffee species. Yesterday, WCR shared an article on its LinkedIn page, published by the Financial Times, titled ‘Have we reached peak coffee?’

Coffee consumption is on the rise, the article detailed, with a rapidly growing market among ‘new consumers’ in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, this demand is outpacing supply, with warming temperatures threatening up to half of current coffee farmland, and fluctuating harvests forcing farmers to abandon the industry for a more stable income.

Vanusia Nogueira, executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noted in the piece that coffee may be forced to become a luxury commodity or endure a significant hit to its quality if the deficit continues.

Meanwhile, Jennifer ‘Vern’ Long, chief executive of WCR explained how the challenge comes from coffee being a plant that loves ‘perfect’ or ‘Goldilocks’ weather with just the right temperatures and rainfall, which are the fragile conditions being threatened by climate change. Areas that are currently ideal for coffee growing, known as the coffee belt, are decreasing in their suitability, with areas previously unsuited, to the north or south of this belt, beginning to be more suitable for growing coffee. However, any shift in location would affect the livelihoods of innumerable communities across the coffee belt that are reliant on coffee growing for their economy.

Since so much of the retail value of coffee is held in the higher-income countries which import the coffee, the coffee-farming communities do not have the resources or resilience to hold fast against these climate-induced challenges. The future of coffee hangs in the balance unless there is a redistribution of the risk and profit in the industry as a whole so that coffee farming remains a desirable and reliable practice for those communities, emphasised Daniele Giovannucci, founder of the Committeee on Sustainability Assessment, in the article.

Alongside this rethink of coffee pricing, ought to be a revaluation of the coffee plants themselves. While there are 130 species of coffee discovered in the wild, only arabica and robusta are used for the world’s coffee consumption, which significantly increases the vulnerability of the plant.

At World of Coffee Athens in June, Emilia Umaña, WCR nursery development manager, explained in her presentation that World Coffee Research is a collective investment in the future of coffee by the coffee industry. The work WCR does is to breed varieties that wouldn’t normally meet naturally, in order to cultivate certain advantageous characteristics, notably resistance to drought and high temperatures, to safeguard the future of the coffee industry. WCR has over 170 members in 30 countries and relies on these multinational links in its research. Numerous factors such as altitude, soil type, etc., as well as climate, necessarily impact the characteristics of coffee plants grown there, so the same variant may differ in each location. Which is why thorough testing internationally is essential.

Drastic changes to the way we grow, trade, and consume coffee might well be on the horizon, which is why change is rapidly needed to meet the ever-growing demand from the threatened supply. Work that the WCR is doing provides options to farmers, but they must be supported and incentivised by the corporations dominating the rest of the supply chain for coffee farming to continue being a worthwhile and viable livelihood.

• Kathryn Brand, associate editor, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.
  Keep in touch via email: kathryn@bellpublishing.com
  Twitter: @TCTradeJournal or LinkedIn: Tea & Coffee Trade Journal

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“In a world where sustainability issues have accelerated, expectations and regulation for responsible business practices and supply chains are increasing, as consumers expect purchase decisions to support environmental conservation and socioeconomic development, protecting people and planet,” said Michael Gelchie, LDC’s chief executive officer. “Our position enables us to influence our value chains toward positive and sustainable change, presenting both opportunities and challenges that we firmly believe can and should be addressed through increased collaboration among all production chain stakeholders.”

Going beyond the sectoral roadmap announced at COP27, LDC committed in 2022 to eliminate deforestation and conversion of native vegetation of high conservation value for agricultural purposes from its supply chains by the end of 2025, adopting deforestation and native vegetation conversion reference dates at November 2016 for palm and January 2020 for soy and other commodities.

“Promoting responsible land use by avoiding loss or degradation of natural habitats is a critical enabler for climate change mitigation and biodiversity and water conservation,” said Murilo Parada, LDC’s chief sustainability officer. “This resonates with our work to eliminate deforestation and native vegetation conversion for agricultural purposes in our supply chains, by driving product traceability, certification and verification, incentivising and empowering farmers to embrace more sustainable agricultural practices, and working toward Group-wide responsible sourcing policies and protocols.”

In 2022, LDC also exceeded its five-year targets (since 2018) across its four environmental key performance indicators (greenhouse gas emissions, electricity and energy consumption, water usage and solid waste sent to landfill) and pushed ahead with groundwork to set its target for Scope 1 and 2 emissions reductions of 33.6% by 2030 (compared to a 2022 baseline), announced in March 2023. This target is aligned with Science-Based Targets initiative criteria and consistent with the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The Group also reported another record year in terms of safety performance indexes, with the lowest ever reported accident frequency and gravity rates, thanks to record investment into safety, health & environment (SHE) enhancements and awareness campaigns, as well as the diligence of LDC teams worldwide to work safely, adopt healthy habits and act for the environment.

Throughout 2022, the Group also made positive progress in specific supply chains: establishing a new LDC Responsible Sourcing Program for coffee and launching the Stronger Coffee Initiative, conducting successful freight biofuel trials, advancing supply chain traceability and deforestation-free verification protocols in palm and soy, training tens of thousands of cotton farmers on sustainable farming practices, and more.

“At LDC, we believe we have both a duty and a vital role to play in shaping a fair and sustainable future for a growing population,” said Michael Gelchie. “The Group will continue to work in this sense in 2023 and beyond, through continued action to reduce our environmental footprint, empower and protect the people working for and with LDC, and set standards for responsible practices and behaviors – within the company and across our value chains.”

LDC’s 2022 Sustainability Report is available at ldc.com/sustainability-report-2022.

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Carbon, and in turn, the carbon footprint, has been recognised as one of the leading causes of human-induced climate change. Over the past few decades, companies have shifted their infrastructures to reduce the negative impact, hoping to protect plants, waterways, and animals. However, when carbon is in the soil, it improves its ability to retain water and its overall fertility. So, the challenge is how do we get carbon out of the air and back into the earth? The solution is regenerative agriculture.

Bringing soil to the forefront

For decades, the climate change conversation centered around harm reduction with the goal of shifting agricultural practices to become carbon neutral. The challenge with this model is that it simply maintains the environment where it is today, which means that the current challenges plaguing the industry, including climate unpredictability, drought, and pest infestations, remain. Minimising harm is no longer enough to mitigate the risks of climate change; the environment needs to improve. Instead of adopting methods that will sustain, the focus needs to be repair and regeneration, beginning with adopting agricultural practices that will build healthy soil.

Regenerative farming begins with recognising soil’s role in the health of the planet and those living on it. “Conventional, which is the majority, this is where we have been, and sometimes it is where we are still stuck, but the method is destructive and unsustainable,” said Michael Ham, president, Well AP, Mt Kisco, New York. “Sustainable, which is achieving net zero, will maintain the status quo, but we need to reverse the damage that has been done and the only way to do that is through regenerative. This is where the focus needs to be in the next decade for us to really bring things back to where they should be. “Recognising the benefit, both for the earth and farm itself, Ham shared that their Korean tea farm Wild Orchard made the commitment to shift its practices from organic to regenerative. This past May, Wild Orchard obtained the Regenerative Organic Certification, becoming the first tea farm to receive this certification.

Curious deer traipsing through tea plants that are surrounded by other plants and wildflowers. Image: Wild Orchard

“Regenerative agriculture takes it one step further by focusing on the health of the soil,” said Ham. The model emphasises that soil requires living microbes to achieve its optimal health, which is obtained through various methods, including crop cover, minimising the amount of tillage, biodiversity, and intermittent grazing techniques, can grow nutrient-dense plants and reduce the amount of carbon in the environment.

In 2014, the Rodale Institute, Emmaus, Pennsylvania, released the white paper “Regenerative Organic Agriculture and Climate Change: A Down to Earth Solution to Global Warming,” urging the agricultural sector to consider the long-term impacts of its practices and to adopt regenerative methods. According to the Rodale Institute, most agricultural soil has lost between 30 to 75 per cent of its organic carbon. The loss has been linked to the atmosphere and conventional farming practices. Six years later, the Rodale Institute published “Regenerative Agriculture and the Soil Carbon Solution,” reiterating the harm in conventional practices, and urged the agricultural industry to adopt regenerative practices to build healthy soil, and in turn, reduce the levels of carbon in the atmosphere.

Dr Rattan Lal, director of carbon management and sequestration centre, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, and winner of the 2020 World Food Prize, has extensively studied soil health. He continues to emphasise the importance of protecting the soil, both for the health of the environment and to improve food security. He explained the interdependency between the health of soil and the health of the planet, stating that if the health of the soil goes down the health of everything else goes down with it.

Making the shift to regenerative practices

In November 2020, the World Coffee Research organisation invited both Dr Lal and Andrea Illy, chairman of illycaffè, Trieste, Italy, to discuss soil health, and more specifically regenerative agriculture and the need for the coffee industry to shift its farming practices to mitigate the risks of climate change. Over the last five years, several coffee and tea manufacturers have adapted their sustainability strategies to focus on regeneration and soil health. Starbucks launched a holistic sustainability project with a focus on regenerative agriculture in Nariño, Colombia, with 100 smallholder farmers. Nestlé committed to investing 1.3 billion dollars, over a five-year period, to aid farmers with the transition to regenerative practices.

illycaffè announced its goal of becoming a carbon-free company by 2033, including zero-emission coffee plantations in both Guatemala and Kokkere, Ethiopia, where the farmers are adopting the principles of regenerative agriculture. While Unilever released its five regenerative agriculture principles, which would serve as a model of standards that they would use to help educate suppliers and guide their farmers.

Tazo launched a regenerative organic tea line in August. Image: Tazo Tea

This past August, Tazo Tea (formerly owned by Unilever, now owned by ekaterra) launched a regenerative organic tea line made with ingredients grown with regenerative agriculture practices. The product launch included four Tazo original tea blends relaunched as regenerative organic blends. The commitment to becoming regenerative included not just the farms themselves but also a focus on developing resilient communities and replenishing the planet’s resources.

“Tazo has always been a brand that challenges the status quo, and this regenerative organic transition is no exception,” said Laraine Miller, president, ekaterra Americas, New York. “For too long, business as usual has been killing our planet. It is time for every company, including the entire tea industry, to overhaul their means of production to combat climate change and help people and planet thrive.”

The tea and coffee industries are taking action, adopting strategies that focus on regeneration, beginning with educating farmers on the importance of soil health and providing the resources that will support them with making this transition. However, the path to become regenerative, is still in its infancy. “Regenerative agriculture might be the new buzzword on the block, but the key aspect behind it to shift the focus of sustainable farming from ‘doing no harm’ towards delivering positive impact is urgent and garnering more corporate commitment,” said Piet van Asten, head sustainable production systems-coffee, Olam Food Ingredients (OFI), Singapore. “This momentum is proving powerful in driving efforts around decarbonisation and pesticide reduction.”

The message from both the tea and coffee communities is clear. Instead of sustaining, we need to reduce the amount of carbon in the environment, a term, called decarbonisation, and the adoption of regenerative practices provides a strategy to help achieve this goal.

For regenerative practices to be viable at the farm level, the strategies adopted need to be responsive to the particular needs of the farmer.

“From our experience, it’s important to present it to farmers as an extension of what they already do well, rather than as a requirement to change existing practices,” said Van Asten. “To encourage uptake, we need to go beyond the buzzwords by translating what ‘regenerative,’ ‘climate-smart’ or ‘agro-ecological’ practices mean on the ground in terms of better productivity and livelihoods.”

OFI strives to do this through education, including highlighting the benefits that some of these shifts, that may initially appear counterintuitive, like integrated weed management, can provide. For example, through education, the farmers begin to see soil erosion, recycle nutrients, and harbour natural predators to control insect pests. “Educating farmers and supporting them to meet demand by shifting to more eco-friendly production makes what might initially seem a daunting task, an economically viable route in the long-term,” said Van Asten.

From an economic standpoint, this model is being looked at for its potential in developing more resilient crops, and in turn, aiding with food security. However, converting to this model requires farmers to look at the entire process, from soil to the harvest, including both the short- and long-term outcome of each of the techniques that are used. Machine harvesting, for example, traditionally uses fossil fuel emitting these toxins into the environment, which in turn, enters the soil, and the plants. However, innovation in agrotech is looking at eco-friendly alternatives to respond to these challenges so that large scale farms have an option that will maintain their productivity without causing harm to the environment.

At Olam AtSource agronomist shows the benefits of a properly pruned coffee plant. Image: Vanessa L Facenda

Currently, the tea at the 1000-acre farm of Wild Orchard is hand-picked, however, the company is looking at investing in battery powered harvesting machines to pluck their second and third flushes of their crops. The hope is that by incorporating these types of tools into their operation will help accelerate the amount of regenerative tea that enters the supply chain.

The long-term benefits of regenerative agricultural practices continue to gain recognition throughout the tea and coffee industries. On a positive note, each shift that is made at the farm level, whether it is increasing biodiversity, integrated weed management, or maintaining cover crops, will help to feed the soil, and over time, reduce the amount of carbon that is emitted into the atmosphere. The launch of the regenerative organic alliance certification is a tool that will help increase consumer recognition of this agricultural model. However, now, it is up to the industry to share the positive actions that their companies are taking so that the products that are grown through the regenerative model receive both the recognition and the economic value that they deserve.

• Anne-Marie Hardie is a freelance writer, professor and speaker based in Barrie, Ontario. She may be reached at: annemariehardie1@gmail.com.

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