For many years Brazil’s annual harvests, particularly of Arabica beans, have had a significant influence on international coffee prices. Brazil’s sometimes rocky economic situation does have an effect on coffee bean harvests – and the results show up in overall production for various bean types, in organic production trends, and in the country’s total export volumes.

The 2023-2024 coffee harvest season in Brazil was marked by a significant increase in production compared with the previous year. This surge was primarily driven by favourable weather conditions and improved farming practices. Brazil’s total coffee production in 2024 exceeded that of 2023 by a substantial margin.

Brazil is renowned for its high-quality Arabica beans, which are prized for both their flavour profile and their aroma. However, the country also produces Robusta beans, a lowercost alternative, whose reputation has been improving over the last few years. The relative proportions of Arabica and Robusta in Brazil’s harvests do fluctuate from year to year, influenced by factors such as market demand and economic incentives.

In general, Arabica beans continue to dominate Brazil’s coffee production, accounting for asignificantly larger share of the total harvest. However, Robusta production has also shown growth in recent years, driven by increasing demand for lower-priced coffee options.

Organic coffee production has been gaining traction in Brazil, as consumers increasingly seek products that are grown without the use of synthetic pesticides and fertilisers. While organic coffee still represents a relatively small portion of Brazil’s total coffee output, it has experienced steady growth in recent years.

Several factors have contributed to the expansion of organic coffee production in Brazil. These include increased consumer awareness of the benefits of organic products, government support for organic agriculture, and the development of sustainable farming practices.
Brazil’s coffee products reach markets around the world. The volume of coffee exports from Brazil varies depending on the changing dynamics of global demand, competition from other producing countries, and worldwide economic conditions.

Brazil’s coffee bean harvests play a vital role in the global coffee market. The country’s production of high-quality Arabica beans, coupled with its increasing focus on organic coffee, has solidified its position as a leading exporter. Brazil has maintained its strong position due to strong demand for its beans from countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan. However, the country has also faced competition from other coffee-producing nations, particularly Vietnam and Colombia.

Several factors are influencing Brazil’s coffee production, including these four:
Weather: Climate conditions, such as rainfall and temperature, can significantly impact coffee yields. Excessive rainfall or droughts can negatively affect crop health and productivity.
Pests and diseases: Coffee plants, particularly, Arabica, are susceptible to various pests and diseases, which can reduce yields and quality. Effective pest control measures are essential for maintaining healthy crops.
Soil quality: The quality of the soil in coffee-growing regions is crucial for plant health and productivity. Poor soil conditions can limit crop yields and affect bean quality.
Economic factors: Economic factors, such as the price of coffee beans and the cost of production, can influence the profitability of coffee farming. Low coffee prices or rising production costs can discourage farmers from investing in coffee cultivation.

While weather, pests, soil quality, and economic conditions can influence coffee production, Brazil’s ability to adapt to changing market dynamics and invest in sustainable farming practices positions it well for continued success in the years to come.

The Impact of Climate Change
Coffee production is fragile, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports maintain that climate change will reduce worldwide yields on average and decrease land suitable for growing coffee by 2050.

Climate change is affecting Brazil’s coffee industry in ways which may, in the end, become detrimental to everyone – from the growers all the way downstream to those who consume their coffee.

“A Systematic Review on the Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Agrosystems” is the January 2023 research article published in the prestigious PLANTS science journal. The six co-authors of this study reviewed 148 records from literature considering the effects of climate change and climate variability on coffee production, covering countries mostly from three continents (America, Africa, and Asia).

The main effects of climate change have been hotter temperatures and lower moisture, causing plants and cherries to not only be unable to fully flourish and bloom, but die while developing. Since the majority of Brazil’s coffee plantations are below 6,000 feet, they are being impacted in tangible ways by hotter temperatures.

Coffee plants need very specific temperatures, soil, and environments to grow in and continually produce coffee each year. With the rising temperature and lack of rainfall and humidity, coffee plants aren’t growing and reproducing as they usually would. Climate change has caused typical weather patterns to be inconsistent, making harvest times and crop quality nearly impossible to control and predict. Though rainfall is lacking for some growing regions, it’s happening more often for others, resulting in more harvesting and picking cycles, which is great.
However, this means higher labour costs than usual, making it harder on farmers.

The hotter temperatures have caused plants to lose several growing days in their usual harvest cycle. This is because heat can disturb a plant’s metabolism, driving stress in the plant and possibly reducing its photosynthetic efficiency. While hotter regions have caused harm to some growing regions, it has opened up new areas where coffee can be grown. With the increased temperatures, coffee can now grow at higher altitudes. Twenty years ago, coffee couldn’t grow in altitudes above 6,000 feet, but now, some of the best coffees are coming from these regions. However, the majority of coffee plantations are below 6,000 feet and are being impacted by the hotter temperatures. The main effects of climate change have been hotter temperatures and lower moisture, preventing plants and cherries from fully flourishing and blooming, but also dying while developing.

Climate change is a reason for the rapid spread of coffee leaf rust, a parasite that feeds off the leaves of the Arabica plant, and steals their food, causing the leaves to spot until they fall off and the plant dies. In the 1800s, this disease killed off most of the world’s coffee supply, and in 2012, another horrific outbreak resulted in over three billion dollars in damages. Coffee leaf rust can be controlled and contained by applying fungicides during wet seasons. However, it is only at higher altitudes and cooler temperatures that the disease struggles to reproduce and spread. This is still a very real problem that farmers face.

The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) is a national government agency that manages agricultural policies and supply and provides information on Brazil’s agricultural harvest. In September of 2024, Conab lowered its forecast for 2024 Brazil’s coffee production: 54.79 million bags from 58.81 million as it forecast in May, due to the dry weather and extreme heat the crop experienced during its development phase.

This would put production down 0.5 percent from last year. Arabica production was lowered to 39.59 million bags from the previous forecast of 42.11 million. Conab’s forecast is up 1.7 percent from 2023 due to increased planted area. Yields were lowered, despite this being an ‘on year’ in the country’s biennial cycle.

Robusta production was forecast previously at 15.2 million bags, down from 16.71 million which had been the estimate in May and down six percent from a year ago. Brazil’s weather
conditions are not expected, but there could be a gradual increase in the number and frequency of showers as humidity starts to build for the rainy season. Greater rainfall is possible in the last days of September or early October. Until then, most
of the rain will remain too light to induce any flowering. ICE Arabica stocks are down to 837,656 bags, their lowest level since 4 September. The amount pending review is down to 6,081 bags, which is the lowest in more than six months.

UN FAO economist Fabio Palmeri shared his views about Brazil’s challenges and opportunities, “After negatively affecting the 2024 coffee output, prolonged dry weather conditions are raising concerns over the potential impact on the 2025 crop. In the first nine months of 2024, Brazil exported two million tonnes of coffee, 40 percent more than in the corresponding period last year, with export earnings reaching a record high of USD $8.5 billion, amid strong international demand. Arabica coffee remained the most exported variety. However, exports of Robusta and Conilon coffee surged in 2024, with shipments increasing by 170 percent compared to 2023, amid lower availabilities from Vietnam.”

Palmeri made a special note of the fact that coffee exports increased despite persistent logistics bottlenecks, including limited space at Brazilian ports coupled with greater demand for shipping containers.

Well Positioned for Continued Growth

In tabulating Brazil’s national coffee consumption data for the period from November 2022 to October 2023, the Brazilian Association of the Coffee Industry (ABIC) found that there had been an increase of 1.64 percent as compared to November 2021 to October 2022. This volume represents 39.4 percent of the 2023 harvest, which was 55.07 million bags, according to Conab. In the period from November 2021 to October 2022, the volume consumed inside Brazil represented 41.9 percent of the harvest, which was 50.9 million bags.

As the world shifts to low-carbon economic sectors and markets, Brazil’s rich ecosystems can enable it to discover some lasting growth opportunities created by that shift. Threequarters of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions result from land-use change and agriculture. This implies that Brazil can and should make it a greater priority to halt spreading deforestation while transitioning towards low-carbon agriculture.

The scientific consensus is clear: Brazil’s rainforest in the Amazon is close to a tipping point, beyond which it cannot generate enough rainfall to sustain the national ecosystem. This is the power that fuelled Brazil’s growth: the agriculture, hydropower, water supply, industries. That same endangered ecosystem provides a full spectrum of environmental services to all of Latin America and the Caribbean as well as to the rest of the world.

Halting deforestation and scaling-up climatesmart land use can be done within Brazil’s agriculture sector while simultaneously increasing total productivity. It is entirely possible for Brazil to fully integrate agriculture, and other businesses, into the future green economy.

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But the rising cost of goods is not stopping Americans from drinking their daily cup of coffee—whether they prepare it at home or purchase it a coffee shop. US coffee sales at retail alone in 2023 hit US $18.9 billion – 18% of the global total – making the US the world’s largest coffee market (US #1 in coffee spend while is Brazil #1 in consumption), said Matthew Barry, insight manager food & beverage, Euromonitor International, during the National Coffee Association’s (NCA) recent ‘US Coffee Outlook 2024’ webinar.

However, the US is very tilted to foodservice coffee with Americans spending more than twice in that channel than they do at retail. The coffee shop segment continues to grow amid the turmoil, explained Barry. “A major shift is taking place towards a more tech-driven, to-go model de-emphasising the human aspect while ‘permissible indulgence’ spending cushions the sector against economic trouble.”

At retail, ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee remains the top performer in terms of growth, which has slowed but still leads. Pods is the next largest category, which Barry noted is doing well in the US but struggling in Europe, followed by standard ground and whole beans (the smallest category but a solid performer). Despite the availability of higher quality instant and pioneers of specialty coffee entering the category, soluble coffee’s performance is still subpar and sales are expected to decline in the US in 2024.

E-commerce has been a particular bright spot for the coffee industry category, with Barry saying that “a slowing segment overall has not damaged coffee. Sales were up 24% for the first three quarters of 2023 over the same period in 2022.”

Although consumers may not be able to live without their daily small indulgence, coffee is not immune to the effects of higher prices. According to Barry, steep prices are narrowing the window for premiumisation. “Americans are showing less interest in paying for virtually any sort of value-added attribute.” This is affecting areas like organic, environmentally friendly and sustainably produced products.

While American consumers may not be willing to pay for just any ‘value-added attribute’, they will for those will health claims so the most advantageous way to premiumisation is through functionality. “Health remains a spending priority even with consumer pullback,” shared Barry, adding, “functional coffees should be able to benefit from this. Energy, digestive health, and weight management should see especially interesting [growth] in 2024.”

Another growth area is digestive health as the microbiome is better understood. “Particularly important will be emerging understanding of the microbiome’s [probiotics] effect on wider health such as the ‘gut-brain axis’,” he commented.

Experts have warned that 2024 will be hottest year in history, surpassing 2023 which was the hottest to date, so climate will be top of mind with consumers. However, “consumer willingness to spend on sustainability is not increasing,” Barry explained, adding, “the pressures from years of inflation have led fewer consumers to be willing to spend on more sustainable products.”

He said that sustainability is becoming about adaptation rather than consumer appeal, that is, more of a supply chain interest area rather than a way to appeal to consumers (a focus on decreasing supply chains, water availability, etc.).

So, to sum up the coffee outlook for this year [per the NCA/Euromonitor International — I am curious if others agree or have a different opinion]: although high prices will keep consumers pessimistic thereby rendering premiumisation more difficult, the US coffee market is set to have a good 2024 particularly from growth in coffee shops spending, RTD coffee and functional coffees.

• Vanessa L Facenda, editor, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.
  Keep in touch via email: vanessa@bellpublishing.com Twitter: @TCTradeJournal or LinkedIn: Tea & Coffee Trade Journal

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