The declaration, signed by Melissa Duncan, executive director of Fairtrade International, and Jeroen Douglas, the Director General of ICA, has solidified the organisations’ commitment to work together to advance the principles of democracy, empowerment, economic prosperity and distribution, and the convergence of economic, social, and environmental components of development.

The announcement was made during ICA’s General Assembly held in New Delhi, India this week. Tone Cecilie Faugli, the CEO of Fairtrade Norway, together with Fairtrade Network of Asia & Pacific Producers CEO Erwin Novianto and Fairtrade certified cooperatives are participating in the event.

“We’re excited to launch this partnership with ICA as we embark on this shared opportunity to leverage our strengths and work together to build strong cooperatives that achieve better, fairer, and more dignified labour relations. Successful cooperatives are the lifeblood of Fairtrade and essential for sustainable global trade,” said Melissa Duncan, Fairtrade’s Executive Director.

“This declaration cements our joint efforts towards creating impactful change for cooperatives worldwide,” said Jeroen Douglas, Director General of ICA. “Together, ICA and Fairtrade International will drive forward initiatives that support cooperatives in their sustainable business case though fair pricing. Only a price tag on fair wages, clean water, gender inclusion and the pure air we breathe will transform our economy to the needs of communities.”

Fairtrade International and ICA, both EU Financial Framework Partnership Agencies, have had fruitful collaboration in the past on policy influencing, evidence gathering research, and the sharing of best practices focusing on the management of sustainable supply chains and people-centred business models. Advocacy work on cooperatives’ priorities include the EU Deforestation Regulation and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence directive. ICA and Fairtrade are also both members of the EU’s Global Gateway Dialogue Platform.

The partnership agreement will now facilitate closer co-operation between ICA and Fairtrade International on emerging areas of expertise needed, such as cooperative legal frameworks, agroecology, climate change, youth inclusion, gender equality, among others. It will contribute to strengthen both organisations’ work on promoting inclusive and sustainable cooperatives and their communities through wealth creation and redistribution, democracy, empowerment. It will also advance efforts towards an ever-increasing convergence between the economic, social, and environmental components of development.

Under the flagship of the UN International Year of Cooperatives, this partnership is expected to enable more cooperatives and their members to realise sustainable livelihoods, fulfil their potential, and decide on their future, given the growing risks and challenges they face.

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New Dawn Traders began in 2012, with the opportunity to sail aboard the Irene of Bridgewater to transport olive oil from Portugal to Brazil. Despite this being a failed mission, this voyage opened the door to future success.

With the cost of living rising, and supermarkets dominating supply chains with “cheap” options, it’s easy to think the idea of transporting coffee and produce by sail cargo is an unrealistic one. However, over the past 12 years, consumer demands have shifted dramatically, and many businesses now place sustainability at the heart of their operations.

Creating a more sustainable and ethical supply chain is proving its worth against all odds. The Vermont Sail Freight Project, the Sail Transport Network in the United States, the Greenheart Project in Fiji, TOWT in France, Holland’s Fairtransport, and B9 Shipping are just a few of the pioneering initiatives in sail cargo.

The focus is on British, Irish, and Dutch shores, where independent coffee roasters such as Farm Hand Coffee, based in Dublin, and Yallah Coffee, based in Cornwall, have teamed up with sailors to connect communities on both sides of the Atlantic.

It’s not every morning — or even throughout the day — that we think about the impact of our cup of coffee. But in my opinion, it would be quite mind-blowing to open my coffee jar every day and know that it had travelled thousands of nautical miles to reach me.

When spending company funds with large multinational corporations, local communities and farmers certainly miss out on the economic benefits.

As a final consumer, or as a business, it’s impossible not to feel much more connected to the process and the people behind the product when coffee, tea, or any other commodity is shipped by sail. After all, our coffee only reaches us thanks to a crew going with the wind.

• Inês Coutinho, digital editor, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.
  Keep in touch via email: ines@bellpublishing.com Twitter: @TCTradeJournal or LinkedIn: Tea & Coffee Trade Journal

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Producers from nine countries – Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Nicaragua, and Rwanda – have earned spots in the final, with three producers representing each country. The international jury will gather in New York on 12 November to taste and evaluate the coffees, which were selected by illycaffè’s quality laboratories based on rigorous quality and sustainability criteria throughout the 2023/2024 harvest.

The Ernesto Illy International Coffee Award 2024 jury includes Massimo Bottura, chef patron of Osteria Francescana and Casa Maria Luigia and founder of Food for Soul, a non-profit organization combatting food waste and social isolation. In recognition of his humanitarian and environmental efforts, Bottura was appointed goodwill ambassador for the United Nations Environment Programme in 2020 and most recently as SDG Advocate. In 2020 Osteria Francescana was awarded the prestigious Michelin Green Star for sustainability; Viki Geunes, chef and owner of restaurant Zilte in Antwerp, holder of three Michelin stars, known for his creative and visually stunning dishes; Felipe Rodrigues, head chef of the Rosewood Complex in São Paulo and one of South America’s leading chefs, with experience working under top European and Peruvian chefs.

Three professional tasters, Vanúsia Nogueira, executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and daughter of coffee producer, with extensive experience in quality coffee markets; Felipe Isaza, Arabica Q Grader and member of the Board of Directors of the Coffee Quality Institute, who has served as an international juror at numerous tastings; Dessalegn Oljirra Gemeda, Ethiopian coffee consultant and Q Grader, with a background working for the Ethiopian Coffee & Tea Authority, Ethiopian Coffee Exchange, and Oxfam.

And three expert journalists: Vanessa Zocchetti, editor-in-chief of the lifestyle section of Madame Figaro, who writes on gastronomy and design, Sebastian Späth, editor-in-chief of Germany´s leading food and lifestyle magazine Falstaff, with a great expertise in art, cuisine, fashion, and design, and Josh Condon, editor-in-chief of Robb Report, a leading luxury magazine.

This multidisciplinary jury combines culinary, technical and journalistic expertise to assess the complex nuances of the world’s finest coffees and choose the ‘Best of the Best.’

In addition, consumers will have the chance to participate by tasting the 9 finalist coffees and voting for their favourite in a series of blind tastings held at illy flagship stores worldwide. The coffee with the most votes will receive the ‘Coffee Lovers’ Choice’ award.

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The I-CIP averaged 258.90 US cents/lb in September, an 8.4% increase from August 2024. The I-CIP posted a median value of 264.57 US cents/lb and fluctuated between 241.20 and 272.70 US cents/lb. The September 2024 I-CIP is above the September 2023 I-CIP by 69.1%, with the 12-month rolling average at 201.71 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 5.9% and 6.5%, reaching 279.27 and 278.52 US cents/lb, respectively, in September 2024. The Brazilian Naturals also appreciated, increasing by 6.2% to 257.24 US cents/lb in September 2024. The Robustas outperformed all groups of coffee, expanding 12.8% to 242.08 US cents/lb. The New York and London ICE markets were drivers of growth, expanding by 6.0% and 13.8% and reaching 253.89 and 225.68 US cents/lb, respectively–the highest point since September 2011 for the Arabica futures, and the highest point since May 1977 for the Robusta futures (nominal prices).

Strong consumer demand continued to apply positive price pressure on the I-CIP as people returned to work in September following the northern hemisphere summer holidays. The rise in climate-related irregularities also contributed to upward pressure on prices via logistical disruptions – Typhoon Yagi not only claimed several lives, but damaged infrastructure and homes through extensive flooding and mudslides. There has been increased disruption to return flows of empty containers as key shipping routes remain susceptible to the effects of geo-political tensions. As attacks from insurgents continue to threaten commercial maritime routes in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, shipping lines continue to re-route their operations through the Cape of Good Hope. Also adding to logistical pressure was the news of a potential strike at the US East Coast ports, first heard over the second half of September. The strike ultimately went ahead on 1 October and ended on 3 October.

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential shrank from 2.33 to 0.75 US cents/lb between August and September 2024. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential expanded by 2.1% to 22.03 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential declined by 24.2% from August to September 2024, averaging 37.20 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds– Brazilian Naturals and Other Milds–Robustas differentials moved by 10.6% and -22.0% to 21.28 and 36.45 US cents/lb, respectively. The Brazilian Naturals–Robustas differential retracted by 44.9%, averaging 15.17 US cents/lb in September 2024.

The arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York futures markets, contracted 31.8% to 28.21 US cents/lb in September 2024, marking its lowest point since March 2003. The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP retracted by 0.4 percentage points, averaging 10.5% in September 2024. The Colombian Milds’ volatility decreased by 0.1 percentage points. The Other Milds’ volatility grew by 0.2 percentage points to 11.0% whilst the Brazilian Naturals lost 0.1 percentage point, averaging 11.4% in September 2024. The Robustas’ volatility contracted to 11.3% for the month of September, a 0.8 percentage point decrease. Lastly, New York’s volatility increased by 0.1 percentage points, whilst the London futures market’s volatility decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 12.6%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in August 2024 totalled 9.91 million bags, as compared with 9.11 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 8.8%. This is the tenth consecutive month of positive growth, resulting in the cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to August 2024 being up 10.5% at 113.81 million bags as compared with 102.99 million bags over the same period a year ago. The Robustas was the main group responsible for the overall strong growth seen in August 2024, accounting for 59.8% of the 0.8-million-bags net gain in total exports.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 26.7% to 1.05 million bags in August 2024 from 0.83 million bags in August 2023. The latest jump in the exports was driven by Colombia, the group’s largest producer and exporter, with its August 2024 exports up 27.9% to 0.95 million bags as compared with 0.75 million bags in August 2023. The cumulative total for the origin is 10.06 million bags, up 16.1% versus the 8.66 million bags exported from October 2022 to August 2023. Exports of the Colombian Milds for the first 11 months of coffee year 2023/24 are up 13.6% at 11.22 million bags, as compared with 9.88 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23.

Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 5.6% in August 2024 to 1.99 million bags from 1.88 million bags in the same period last year. This is the fifth instance of positive growth since the beginning of coffee year 2023/24. The cumulative volume remained up at 2.2% in the first 11 months of said coffee year and is now at 20.91 million bags as compared with 20.46 million bags last coffee year. Ethiopia, Guatemala and Peru were the three main drivers of the region’s 5.6% growth in exports, with a combined net increase of 0.25 million bags, while Honduras continued to be the main driver of negative growth, with a net decrease of 0.14 million bags. Honduras is currently in the “off-year” of its biennial production cycle, and the cumulative total of the origin’s Other Milds to August 2024 is down 12.9% at 4.46 million bags from 5.12 million bags in the same period a year ago, negatively weighing on the overall export performance of the Other Milds.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals decreased in August 2024, falling by 0.2% to 3.036 million bags from 3.042 million bags in August 2023. The latest growth is the first negative growth rate in the past 11 months for the group. It mainly stems from the change in the dynamics of the group’s largest producer and exporter, Brazil. In August 2024, exports of Brazilian Naturals from Brazil fell by 6.2% following eight consecutive months of double-digit growth, which had averaged 30.1%. The sudden change in the direction of the growth rate of the group and origin is in large part due to a base effect. Exports from Brazil in August 2023 were an anomalous 2.62 million bags, the third-largest August exports in history, up 16.0% over August 2022. Coffee year 2023/24 was an “off-year” for Brazil, and as such the volume of exports in August 2023 was expected to be lower, with historic data suggesting that Brazil would export 2.24 million bags.

However, the knock-on effect of the frost in 2021 turned it into a good “off-year” for Brazil, resulting in a higher-than-expected volume of exports. Furthermore, in August 2024 Brazil faced significant challenges in exports logistics, with 86% of shipments subject to delays and changes in schedules as compared with 60% in August 2023 at the port of Santos, the largest port for coffee exports. The Brazilian Naturals saw only a shallow downturn in August, mainly due to the 64.0% increase in exports from Ethiopia, which had a net gain of 0.16 million bags. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2023/24, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 38.22 million bags, up 21.4% from 31.49 million bags over the same period a year ago.

Green bean exports of the Robustas were up 14.3% to 3.84 million bags in August 2024 from 3.36 million bags in August 2023. As a result, the growth rate of the cumulative total accelerated, increasing to 5.6% in August 2024 from 4.8% in July 2024, with total shipment at 43.46 million bags as compared with 41.16 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23. The main drivers of August’s double-digit growth rate were Brazil, India and Indonesia, whose combined exports were up 36.2% at 1.66 million bags as compared with 1.22 million bags in August 2023. The three origins accounted for 92.1% of the net gain made by the Robustas in August 2024.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 6.2% to 2.93 million bags in August 2024. This is the first positive growth rate in the past four months and it was mainly driven by Indonesia and India. The region’s second- and third-largest producers and exporters saw their respective exports increase by 26.3% and 31.3% to 0.89 million bags and 0.57 million bags as compared with 0.68 million bags and 0.45 million bags in August 2023.

Together the two origins accounted for 82.9% of the region’s 0.17-million-bag net rise. Vietnam, Asia & Oceania’s largest producer and exporter of coffee, saw its exports fall by 12.1% in August 2024 to 1.3 million bags from 1.44 million bags. The latest downturn marked the ninth in total and seventh consecutive decline for Vietnam in coffee year 2023/24, and as a result the country’s cumulative exports up to August 2024 fell to 24.09 million bags from 27.4 million bags between October 2022 and August 2023, down 12.1%. The latest decrease continues to be due to tightness in domestic supply, which is waiting for new supply from the 2024/25 harvest, the start of which is still one month away.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 29.5% to 1.75 million bags in August 2024 from 1.35 million bags in August 2023. As a result, the cumulative total for the first 11 months of coffee year 2023/24 is 14.62 million bags, up 17.3% compared with the 12.46 million bags shipped in coffee year 2022/23. Ethiopia was the main driving force behind the region’s growth in August 2024, with the origin’s exports having increased by 62.4% to 0.6 million bags as compared with 0.37 million bags in August 2023. Ethiopia had accounted for 57.5% of Africa’s August 2024 net rise. Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda were secondary positive drivers of Africa’s double digit growth in August, combining to account for 43.2% of the 0.4-million-bag net rise of the region, increasing by 48.5% and 4.5%, respectively.

In August 2024, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 8.6% to 5.41 million bags. As a result, the cumulative total of 59.84 million bags for the first 11 months of coffee year 2023/24 is up 30.5% as compared to the 45.85 million bags shipped in coffee year 2022/23. Colombia was the source of the strong positive growth of the region, which saw its exports increase by 13.4% in August 2024 to 1.04 million bags from 0.83 million bags in August 2023. As a result, the origin accounted for 52.9% of South America’s 0.43-million-bag net rise in August 2024. Much of the gains made by Colombia in August were down to the base effect, reflecting the historically low exports in August 2023, when 0.83 million bags were shipped. The average exports in August from 2017 to 2021 were 38.0% higher, at 1.14 million bags. Peru accounted for 31.8% of the net rise of the region, with August 2024 exports at 0.55 million bags, up 30.0%. This brings the cumulative total for Peru for the first 11 months of coffee year 2023/24 to 3.83 million bags from 2.37 million bags in the same period a year ago. Exports from Peru are enjoying the benefits of its on-years in the biennial production cycle.

In August 2024, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 28.7% to 0.83 million bags, as compared with 1.16 million in August 2023. As a result, cumulative total exports remain down at −10.3%, having decreased to 12.88 million bags, as compared with 14.36 million bags for the same period a year ago (October 2022 to August 2023). Honduras was, once again, the main negative driver of the region’s exports performance in August 2024. Exports from Honduras continue to be hampered by its off-years in the biennial production cycle, said exports being down 12.9% to 0.25 million bags in August 2024 from 0.39 million bags in August 2023.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 13.3% in August 2024 to 1.22 million bags from 1.08 million bags in August 2023. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2023/24, a total of 11.79 million bags of soluble coffee was exported, representing an increase of 10.6% from the 10.66 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 9.3% in August 2024, the same as in August 2023. Brazil was the largest exporter of soluble coffee in August 2024, shipping 0.33 million bags.

Exports of roasted beans were down 19.7% in August 2024 to 47,730 bags, as compared with 59,417 bags in August 2023. The cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to August 2024 is 0.63 million bags, as compared with 0.65 million bags in the same period a year ago.

For the full ICO September report, visit: icocoffee.org.

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“We have noticed that many packages of coffee, whether green or industrialised, have been improperly labelled with the DO “Cerrado Mineiro,” which could compromise the region’s reputation and harm consumers choices, partners and producers. This is considered an infringement of the rules of the Federation of Coffee Growers of the Cerrado, which has its Designation of Origin registered by the INPI (National Institute of Industrial Property). That’s why we want to be closer to the different links in the chain to provide guidance on the processes for using controlled origin designation,” said Juliano Tarabal, executive director of the Federation of Coffee Growers of the Cerrado.

Campaign

One of the highlights of the campaign is also to increase the traceability of coffee lots, adding value to the product on national and international markets. Since 2013, the label of origin and quality has attested to the fact that the batch sold is certified in the Cerrado Mineiro region, according to the requirements established in the production process. The Designation of Origin policy establishes that all coffees that achieve at least 80 points and pass through the cooperatives will be certified, with the aim of increasing the supply of DO coffee in the market.

“The authenticity of Cerrado Mineiro coffee needs to be protected and it is a collective responsibility to guarantee the quality and history behind the region’s coffee. For us, as producers, it is very important that our partners and consumers know that they are drinking a real coffee of origin and quality, which has a beautiful story behind the cup. This brings value to our product, and the buyer asks for it,” says Augusto Faria, producer.

The campaign includes social media, videos, talks, printed materials and banners to engage as many people as possible around the world.

For the Cerrado Coffee Growers’ Cooperative (Expocacer), one of the supporters of this marketing action, traceability and certifications reaffirm the quality, attributes of the drink and good agricultural practices adopted by producers. “We are the first region in Brazil with a Designation of Origin, certifying that our coffee has a unique quality, characteristics and production methods. That’s why it’s so important that the DO is used correctly, as the campaign reinforces,” says Simão Pedro de Lima, executive president of Expocacer.

Designation of Origin

The Designation of Origin (DO) is a label of quality that identifies products originating in a specific region and which have unique and differentiated characteristics, resulted from geographical, climatic and cultural factors. In the case of coffee from the Cerrado Mineiro region, this certification guarantees that the product was grown and processed in the area of the 55 cities in the region and by one of the 4,500 producers, complying with strict standards of quality, sustainability and guaranteeing traceability.

“The campaign represents an effort to ensure that consumers receive quality products of certified origin, fighting against infringements, strengthening confidence in coffee from the Cerrado Mineiro region, as well as valuing the work of producers who follow the necessary requirements for getting the certification. We have enough potential to attend the demand of the global market, for which we have mapped the use of the Cerrado Mineiro Origin in 44 countries by more than 700 brands,” Tarabal concluded.

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The Signature collection complements the company’s diverse line of coffees, focusing specifically on small-batch seasonal single-origin offerings from across the globe. This is a project born out of passion and a love of the very best coffee. Farrer’s dedicated team of roasters have painstakingly handpicked and selected premium single-origin coffees from some of the most sought-after coffee crops produced from small single-estate plantations.

The latest additions to the range include Boa Vista, a coffee from Brazil, in South America. Boa Vista Farm is a 52-hectare farm run by Anderson Monteiro, whose family first became involved in coffee production in the 1970s and ever since has been producing quality innovative coffee. This particular coffee has a distinctive creamy body bursting with notes of tropical fruits, lemon and honey, rounded off with a floral finish.

The second coffee is from La Gloria Estate, in Panama, Central America. Finca La Gloria is located in the highlands of Boquete and is part of the estate owned by Norberto Suarez and his family. It was first registered as a farm in 1904 and has been growing in this renowned coffee-producing area ever since. This coffee has a smooth body, with some background citrus notes and flavours of tropical fruit and caramel.

The third coffee is Mubuga Natural from northern Burundi, in Central East Africa. Mubuga Washing Station, located in the Ngozi region of Burundi, is owned by Bugental, a family-owned farm-to-roaster business, which supplies a network of very small-scale farmers. This coffee is complex, with notes of blackcurrant, and stone fruits including ripe plums, finishing with hints of dark chocolate and smooth caramel.

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“It’s an amazing result given the concern about whether a new generation would want to take over family farms or be willing to embrace the challenges that come with producing extraordinary coffee. These young farmers, much like the new generation of coffee roasters, are implementing innovative methods and a deep passion for coffee as a career,” said Erwin Mierisch, executive director of The Alliance for Coffee Excellence and Cup of Excellence.  “We are so impressed with their creativity and their efforts,” he continued.

Seven of the thirty winners are women, who through persistence walked on stage to accept their awards. Sara Corrales represents the second generation of coffee growers and is also a member of the Nicaragua chapter of the International Women’s Coffee Alliance.

At the awards ceremony, Samuel Zavala explained how he took over his family farm in 2018 following the death of his father. “When my father died in an accident and I took over the farm I had been working on with him learning about farming, but it was really hard. Specialty coffee was a real challenge since much of the farm was commercial coffees sold to exporters. I felt a lot of fear about whether I could sell this coffee at a sustainable price. Six years later, I am very happy with how my work has been rewarded. This competition is really important for opening doors. Even my sons are excited to stay in coffee and learn about either the farm or about cupping.”

 As with other younger farmers Octavio Peralta Jr. also utilised his academic knowledge to experiment with cutting-edge coffee fermentation and won an award for the family. “Each farmer always has a unique story and enters with distinctive coffees,” explained Kathia Lopez, auction manager for The Alliance For Coffee Excellence, “Winning farmers won with Parainema, Pacamara, Maragogype, and the coveted Geisha varieties,” she continued.

The upcoming auction on 20 June is crucial. Specialty buyers that desire sustainable high-quality coffees should participate and bid on these exceptional coffees, says the Alliance. The auction is a direct way to offer these hardworking farmers the financial support needed to continue producing high-quality coffees.

For more information about the auction and how you can participate, visit allianceforcoffeeexcellence.org.

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The new Brazil capsule joins flavours from Peru, Congo, and Colombia as an addition to the collection. All four professional Origins Organic coffees are ‘Made with Care’ and sourced from carefully selected regions within their respective countries. They’re cultivated, harvested, and processed using methods endorsed by local farmers each echoing the land its grown on, the farming practises and the care given in its sourcing.

The Brazilian Organic coffee is a pure Arabica blend with sweet notes from its origin. Many Arabica beans take inspiration from the savannahs of the Cerrado Mineiro region, which gives the light hint of toasted grain and cereal, whereas others are from the hilltop plantations in Brazil’s southern Minas Gerais state, as well as São Paulo estates. This blend creates a smooth and mild coffee flavour, creating a unique profile for customers.

Nick Stevens, B2B commercial director, UK & ROI, said, “We’re excited to announce the latest addition of Brazil Organic to the Origins Organics collection. This allows our customers to continue to add another taste profile to the range of flavours and experiences already being provided to businesses and their customers.

“Organics are a proof point on our journey towards regenerative agriculture which is our long-term ambition. We hope our customers will enjoy the unique taste of this exceptional new organic coffee, which represents the diversity of the Brazilian terroir.”

Nespresso Professional are cultivating the organic experience, having launched their first blend in 2020. Since then, over 4.8 million organic capsules have been sold to hotels and businesses across a variety of industries, providing them with quality organic coffee.

Nespresso Professional are continuing to meet demand from customers to ensure products are not only the highest quality but are produced using natural substance and processes.

The Organic collection promotes farming practices based on natural and mechanical cycles such as soil cover, compost, and biocontrol, alongside reducing the use of chemical inputs.

Cultivated as part of Nespresso’s AAA programme, the beans for the organic’s ranges are produced with the utmost care following Nespresso’s best practices and strict organic cultivation methods. This level of care adds to the richness of the stories, instilling pride and taking steps towards a more sustainable future for all of us.

Nespresso Professional customers can add the new Brazil Organic capsule to their orders now: Brazil Organic Coffee Capsule Box | Origins | Nespresso Pro.

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“The Hub will open new market doors throughout the country, as it is strategically located in North America. We will be able to offer coffee with immediate delivery, in any quantity. This will be possible because now we will always have available coffee in warehouses, on behalf of Expocacer USA,” said Simão Pedro de Lima, managing director of Expocacer.

With this initiative, Expocacer also aims to boost the economy and consumption of specialty coffee, which is growing more and more in the internal and external markets. According to the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), the global consumption of Brazilian specialty coffee has grown consistently at an annual rate of 12% in recent years.

“The search for a quality bean, that is produced with a concern of preserving the environment and taking care of social aspects, as it is already done in Brazil, is a trend that will remain, and Expocacer having its unit in the United States caters to this. Consumers want to know the origin and story of the coffee they consume, and nothing better than being closer to the consumer, with this new hub,” commented Italo Henrique Pereira Silva, Expocacer’s commercial director.

The logistic hub plays an important role in shortening the chain between producer and consumer. Expocacer, as a coffee growers’ cooperative, represents the effective presence of its members in the North American market, as it is the extension of the producer’s arm, forming the direct farm in its true essence.

“The cooperative’s mission is to take the name of its members directly to those who buy our coffee. Having one of our units in the United States is the result of our dedicated work, that produce coffee with quality and sustainability, generating a positive impact on the market,” said Fernando Beloni, chairman of Expocacer’s Board of Directors.

The cooperative, now present in the United States, will make available its entire quality portfolio and its experience in the production of environmentally friendly coffee, such as regenerative and low-carbon coffee farming.

“We have to be attuned to the global trends, and today, the reality of specialty coffee is of a fractionated market, direct trade, as well as social and environmental respectability. Consumers want to know where the coffee comes from, if it’s made sustainably, and Expocacer’s members do that very well,” concluded the managing director.

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Maratá’s coffee & tea business is predominantly present in the northern part of Brazil through its longstanding and well-known brands Café Maratá and Chá Maratá. The acquisition complements JDE Peet’s’ existing portfolio of brands predominantly sold in the southern regions of Brazil, and increases the company’s scale and national coverage in Brazil, a market which offers compelling prospects for both volume and value growth. As a result, the acquisition offers long-term value creation potential through attractive revenue and cost synergies.

Fabien Simon, CEO of JDE Peet’s, commented, “We are delighted to welcome Maratá’s coffee & tea organisation to JDE Peet’s. Maratá’s portfolio and geographical presence are highly complementary to our existing franchise in Brazil. Together, we will serve more cups across a full range of price points and product offerings while expanding our regional presence in Brazil, one of the world’s largest coffee markets.”

José Augusto Vieira, founder of JAV Group, added, “I am very proud of the strong and successful coffee & tea platform we have built, and I am very pleased that by joining JDE Peet’s, the world’s leading pure-play coffee & tea company, we have secured the long-term development and success of this great business.”

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 175.73 US cents/lb in December, an 8.8% increase from November 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 177.64 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 163.92 and 186.04 US cents/lb. The December 2023 I-CIP is above the December 2022 I-CIP by 11.8%, with the 12-month rolling average at 165.23 US cents/lb. The I-CIP grew steadily in December 2023, reaching a nine-month high. The rise in tensions in the Red Sea has prompted some shipping lines to re-route their coffee-carrying vessels. Thus, for South-East Asian and East African coffee en route to Europe, unintended consequences include a rise in freight costs as some shipping companies have introduced surcharges to account for the now-extended transit times.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 7.6% and 6.9%, to 210.68 and 210.76 US cents/lb, respectively, in December 2023. The Brazilian Naturals presented a growth of 9.4%, reaching an average of 185.23 US cents/lb. However, the Robustas grew the most by 10.5% to 135.47 US cents/lb, the highest level since May 1995, when they were valued at 140.90 US cents/lb. ICE’s New York market was a strong driver of the positive growth, having increased by 9.6% to 186.67 US cents/lb, whilst the London Futures market expanded by 12.2%, to 123.91 US cents/lb, also the highest level since May 1995.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 5.0% to 62.77 US cents/lb in December 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP expanded to 10.2% between November and December 2023. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also increased to 10.8% and 10.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility rose by 2.9 percentage points to 12.6% from November to December 2023. The Robustas presented the smallest volatility increase, with a 0.9 percentage point gain, averaging 9.2% for the month of December. The London Futures market’s volatility increased by 2.7 percentage points to 9.1%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in tandem to that of London, expanding by 2.4 percentage points and reaching 10.5%.

The New York certified stocks continued on their downward trajectory, retracting by 15.0% to 0.28 million 60-kg bags, one of the lowest figures ever recorded. Certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 0.57 million 60-kg bags, a 68.4% increase since November 2023.

Exports by Coffee Groups — Green Beans
Global green bean exports in November 2023 totalled 9.79 million bags, as compared with 9.1 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 7.6%. As a result, the cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to November is 18.39 million bags, as compared with 17.7 million bags over the same period a year ago, up 3.9%.

Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 17.9% in November 2023 to 1.31 million bags from 1.11 million bags in the same period last year. Peru was the main driver of the double-digit growth of this group of coffee, with the origin’s exports of the Other Milds increasing by 60.1% to 0.57 million bags in November 2023 from 0.35 million bags in November 2022, following a 28.9% increase in October 2023. The resurgence of Peru’s exports of the Other Milds is due to the return to normality of local production conditions in coffee year 2023/24 as compared with those seen in coffee year 2022/23. Irregular weather patterns negatively affected the local supply of coffee beans in 2022/23, especially in the first three months of the coffee year, when 1.15 million bags were exported. This was the lowest first three months of exports since the 0.93 million bags shipped in coffee year 2014/15, representing a 26.7% fall in the average volume of exports in coffee years 2015/16–2021/22, which was 1.57 million bags. As a result, the cumulative volume of total exports of the Other Milds also increased, jumping by 9.2% in the first two months of coffee year 2023/24 to 2.74 million bags, versus 2.51 million bags over the same period in 2022/23.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in November 2023, rising by 1.6% to 3.63 million bags. For the first two months of coffee year 2023/24, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 7.35 million bags, up 4.0% from 7.07 million bags over the same period a year ago. The relatively shallow positive growth rate reflects the 2.6% increase in exports of the Brazilian Naturals from Brazil, the biggest producer and exporter of this group of coffee, which rose to 3.2 million bags in November 2023 from 3.12 million bags November 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 34.0% to 1.15 million bags in November 2023 from 0.85 million bags in November 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were up 35.6% in November 2023. As a result, exports of the Colombian Milds for the first two months of coffee year 2023/24 are up 18.7% at 2.1 million bags, as compared with 1.77 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.7 million bags in November 2023, as compared with 3.56 million bags in November 2022, up 4.0%. In volume terms, these constitute the biggest November exports on record, surpassing the level set in November 2022. However, the rise was not sufficient to offset the 10.9% decrease observed in October 2023, when the 2.49 million bags exported represented the lowest quantity for the month since the 1.91 million bags in October 2011. As a result, the cumulative total for the first two months of coffee year 2023/24 is down 2.5%, at 6.2 million bags, as compared with 6.36 million bags in the first two months of coffee year 2022/23. The main driver of November’s Robustas increase was Brazil, shipping 0.86 million bags, a jump of 850.2%.

Exports by Regions — All Forms of Coffee
In November 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 24.7% to 6.07 million bags. The source of the strong positive growth is mainly Brazil, which saw its exports increase by 21.1% to 4.34 million bags from 3.58 million bags in November 2022. More specifically, it was the Robustas from the origin, which in November increased by 850.2% to 0.86 million bags from 0.09 million bags, which drove the region’s positive growth. The November 2023 exports are Brazil’s highest on record for Robusta coffee, beating the 698,856 bags exported in August 2023. Brazil is one of the largest producers and exporters of the Robustas, having accounted for an 8.1% share of the group’s total exports in coffee year 2021/22, i.e. 3.94 million bags. That said, in July–October 2023, Brazil’s share of the Robustas more than doubled, increasing to 22.3%, with the country exporting 3.09 million bags in just four months. This surge was in response to the reduced volume of Robustas coming out of Vietnam, whose Robusta exports fell by 27.5% in July–October 2023 to 4.92 million bags from 6.78 million bags over the same period a year ago. The continued rampant expansion of Brazil’s Robusta exports despite Vietnam’s recovery in November 2023 suggests that its strong foray into this market may continue.

Robusta exports fell by 27.5% in July–October 2023 to 4.92 million bags from 6.78 million bags over the same period a year ago. The continued rampant expansion of Brazil’s Robusta exports despite Vietnam’s recovery in November 2023 suggests that its strong foray into this market may continue.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 13.5% to 1.01 million bags in November 2023 from 1.16 million bags in November 2022. For the first two months of coffee year 2023/24, exports totalled 2.06 million bags as compared with 2.24 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, down 8.1%. This is the third consecutive month of negative growth for the region and it affected most origins, including all the major producers whose combined exports decreased by 11.4% to 0.93 million bags from 1.05 million bags in November 2022. It is speculated that the surge in Brazil’s Robusta exports is crowding out traditional exporters of the group from the market, thus broadly affecting Africa as a whole, which is a largely Robusta-producing region. Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, was also affected by a delayed harvest season which negatively impacted the supply availability.

In November 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were up 15.7% to 0.41 million bags, as compared with 0.35 million in November 2022. As a result, total exports are up 11.0% for October 2023 to November 2023 at 0.9 million bags, as compared with 0.81 million bags for the same period a year ago. Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico are the three main origins behind the region’s double-digit growth in November, with their respective exports up 114.0%, 29.7% and 11.8%. These robust growth rates do not, however, herald the beginning of a record-breaking year for the three origins or for the region, but rather are indications that export volumes are returning to the levels of the recent past, following a sharp fall in coffee year 2022/23. Accordingly, the average October–November export volume for coffee years 2017/18–2021/22 was 0.7 million bags for the three countries as compared with 0.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, a 14.6% fall. This has now increased to 0.68 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania decreased by 18.0% to 3.12 million bags in November 2023. November’s downturn was mainly due to Indonesia, with exports down 45.2% to 0.49 million bags from 0.89 million bags in November 2022. These are the lowest November exports since the 0.2 million bags shipped in 2018. The decrease can be attributed to a reduced harvest in coffee year 2023/24, which is estimated to have fallen by 16.6% to 10.0 million bags from 11.98 million bags in coffee year 2022/23 on the back of excessive rains that damaged cherries in April–May 2023. Vietnam’s exports fell by 7.7% in November, a vast improvement from the steep declines of 23.6%, 45.0% and 44.7% seen in August, September and October 2023. This may indicate that its supply issues have now started to resolve after very low in-origin stock levels were reported in Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, when the start of the harvest still remained three to four months away.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 25.4% in November 2023 to 0.77 million bags from 1.03 million bags in November 2022. In the first two months of coffee year 2023/24, a total of 1.75 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 3.0% from the 1.8 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.6% in November 2023, down from 9.2% in the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.24 million bags in November 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 15.5% in November 2023 to 54,379 bags, as compared with 64,324 bags in November 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to November 2023 was 0.1 million bags, as compared with 0.13 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
World coffee production increased by 0.1% to 168.2 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The stagnant growth rate belies the tremendous changes at the regional level, with the coffee world neatly split between the expanding Americas and the shrinking rest of the world.

Asia & Oceania and Africa’s 4.7% and 7.2% decreases in production to 49.84 million bags and 17.9 million bags, respectively, can be attributed to adverse weather conditions negatively affecting key producers in the regions, particularly Vietnam, Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda. The magnitude of the fall in outputs of the two regions was entirely mitigated by the Americas, especially by South America’s 4.8% increase, which in turn was driven mainly by the biennial production-affected 8.4% increase in Brazil. The combined output of the Americas was 100.5 million bags.

The Americas versus the rest of the world split was also reflected in the production split between the Arabicas and Robustas, with the former’s output increasing by 1.8% to 94.0 million bags as compared with the 2.0% decrease of the latter to 74.2 million bags.

Looking ahead, the output for coffee year 2023/24 is expected to increase by 5.8% to 178.0 million bags, with the Arabicas’ output rising to 102.2 million bags and the Robustas’ increasing to 75.8 million bags.

The biennial production effect will play a large role in the outlook, especially for Brazil and the Arabicas, as the impact of the July 2021 frost continues to be resolved. Coffee year 2023/24 is anticipated to be an exceptional off-biennial year, feeling more like a good on-biennial following an average on-biennial year. Adverse weather conditions, first noted in 2022 and continuing into 2023, will have a negative impact on the outlook for coffee year 2023/24. The anticipated El Niño phenomenon is set to dampen the outlook in Asia, especially for origins like Indonesia. Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to benefit from the drier/hotter weather as irrigation mitigates the reduced precipitation.

World coffee consumption is continuing to resolve through the issues brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the consumption trend following an established patten in response to an external shock. The expectation for coffee year 2022/23 was for a smaller positive growth rate; however, world coffee consumption actually recorded a decrease of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags.

Consumption in coffee year 2022/23 did not faithfully follow the established pattern due to the impact of the high cost of living, falling disposable incomes and a long stocks drawdown. Despite coffee being relatively inelastic, the challenging global economic environment would have had a negative impact on its consumption. The world inflation rate was at its highest in 2021 at 9.4%, while the benchmark interest rate averaged 4.9% at the end of September 2023 in the European Union, UK and USA, the highest level since an average of 5.8% in 2000. At the same time, there was a large drawdown of stocks, where combined stocks reported by the European Coffee Federation and those held at the Intercontinental Exchange’s warehouses in the USA fell by 4.8 million bags from 14.5 million to 9.8 million. This drawdown would have reduced the need for purchases on the international market, seemingly reflected as lower and anomalous global consumption rates for coffee year 2022/23.

The world coffee consumption outlook for coffee year 2023/24 is broadly framed by the assumption that the global economy will continue to grow at above 3.0%, and that the industry will respond to the large drawdown of stocks, which will be positively reflected in apparent consumption. As a result, world coffee consumption is expected to grow by 2.2% to 177.0 million bags, with non-producing countries making the biggest contribution to the overall increase. Coffee consumption in this group of countries should expand by 2.1%.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run a surplus of 1.0 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). For the full CRO or for more information, visit the ICO website: icocoffee.org.

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This phenomenon occurs when carbon sequestration from the soil and plants is greater than emissions, and by analysing the farms’ GHG emission estimates, Imaflora arrived at an absolute value of 15,400 tCO2e.year-1, which is considered low.

The use of organic fertilisers (chicken litter, cattle manure, etc.) and vegetable waste (from pruning, straw and grasses) used on the analysed farms was a positive factor in mitigating greenhouse gases, to the detriment of adding chemical nitrogen. The addition of these inputs can also increase the amount of carbon stored and improve soil quality, which in the medium and long terms increase nutrient cycling, porosity and water retention in the soil.

“Expocacer’s members are always at the forefront of technology, innovation and sustainability. The carbon balance carried out in partnership with Imaflora showcases the sustainable work that our members have been doing for over ten years. We’re moving forward together, towards an increasingly sustainable, low-emission coffee plantation,” said Farlla Gomes, Expocaccer’s technical coordinator for sustainability.

Also according to the survey, other relevant aspects to be considered are increased energy efficiency in the use of machinery, which can be achieved with improved process traceability and georeferenced technology, contributing to the reduction of diesel, man/machine ratio and soil compaction.

“The Carbon on Track platform carries out a series of studies on agriculture on demand. In the coffee sector, the emphasis remains: farms with more sustainable agricultural techniques are not only able to reduce their emissions, but also contribute to carbon sequestration. This carbon-negative grain gains added value and shows that sustainability is good business,” believes Alessandro Rodrigues, projects and services coordinator for Imaflora’s Climate and Emissions area.

For Expocacer, the trend towards reducing greenhouse gases is something that should be followed by other farms around the world. Every farm has the potential to contribute, for example, by applying organo-mineral fertilisers and organic compounds instead of chemical ones. If it is necessary to use chemical fertilisers because the cost is lower, they should be used via fertigation (aquammonia), avoiding the spraying of pure urea or formulated fertilisers. Straw and bark waste can also be reused in the form of organic compost to reduce the potential mineralisation of nitrogen in the soil, there are many ways to achieve sustainable production.

The cooperative was recently named the first coffee cooperative in the world to be awarded the Regenerative Certification by Regenagri, a global organisation that aims to guarantee the health and preservation of the soil, with certification from the British Control Union. This seal confirms the integrity of the cooperative’s processes in receiving and processing certified regenerative coffees, highlighting the sustainable practices that are carried out, such as renewable energy, selective collection and the traceability of stored coffees, following the product’s journey from its entry into warehouses, to distribution centers and to consumers.

The study also points out that the use of sustainable practices helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the long term, as they tend to improve soil quality and reduce the use of external inputs such as nitrogen, phosphorus and glyphosate.

Scope of the study – Expocacer’s cooperative farms, that took part in this project are located in the region of Patrocínio, Minas Gerais, in the Cerrado biome. The average coffee production area of these farms is 192.4 ha, ranging from 40 to 371 ha with very dense areas, with an average stand of 4,370 plants.ha-1. This farms are generally fertirrigated and highly mechanised (planting, fertilising and harvesting are mechanised in most areas). The average yield was 30.6 bags.ha-1, considered above the Brazilian average (21 bags.ha-1).

“Our intention is to promote real sustainability, in line with our purpose of inspiring, fostering and nurturing cutting-edge coffee growing linked to impact. We understand that the market is increasingly demanding and that we have to meet and accompany the movement towards a healthy environment. To this end, we have an exclusive department for sustainability issues, where we also guide and encourage good practices among our members,” said Simão Pedro de Lima, managing director of Expocacer.

Carbon on Track – This is an Imaflora programme designed to raise the profile of low-carbon Brazilian agriculture and forest restoration on the climate agenda. Through the programme, agricultural enterprises can contract the calculation of the carbon balance that shows the estimated emission and removal of greenhouse gases from their activities, based on internationally recognised methodologies.

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Since 2014, Gong cha Americas has grown at a rapid pace, opening more than 400 locations throughout the US, Canada, and Mexico. The brand has opened more than 225 stores across 19 states and Washington DC, and has already franchised 65% of available territory in the US By 2026, Gong cha is projected to reach 1,000 stores across the Americas.

The master franchise rights for the Great Pacific Northwest have been awarded to Master Franchisee,
Ajay Keshap. Keshap has a degree in engineering, and background in high tech sales at Hewlett Packard. For the last 25 years, Keshap has owned a multi-brand US franchise group, whose holdings include 24 Denny’s restaurants, making Keshap one of the top ten largest franchisees within Denny’s system. He also owns 15 Papa John’s pizza restaurants, as well as the area development rights to Dave’s Hot Chicken in the state of Washington.

Gong cha is also pleased to announce the signing of an MF partner for the Central America region—husband and wife team, Justin Willingham and Monica Fonseca. They will begin by opening the first Gong cha locations in Honduras, and then expanding into Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala.
Skilled entrepreneurs with years of franchise experience, Willingham and Fonseca are projected to open 1-2 locations in early 2024, with the goal of opening 50 stores across their territory over the next ten years.

“We’re proud to be partnering with Ajay, Justin and Monica to bring Gong cha to new markets across the Pacific Northwest and Central America,” said Geoff Henry, Gong cha’s president of the Americas. “With their experience and leadership in the franchise space, we know they will find great success introducing Gong cha’s premium product to a brand new audience.”

Gong cha is seeking large area developers for the remaining available territories in the US as well as master franchisee candidates in key growth markets in South America. For more information on Gong cha’s franchise programme, visit gongchausofficial.com.

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The Argentinian tea and coffee markets are steadily growing this year thanks to generally improving economic situation in the region and stable domestic demand.

Argentina has rich traditions of tea and coffee drinking. While the Covid-19 pandemic and serious financial problems of the country had resulted in a serious drop of consumption of both drinks, the market has almost completely recovered, although the rise of coffee prices by almost 150 percent in the last year put a serious pressure on the market.

For many global coffee majors, the expansion into Argentina along with Brazil, is a priority due to the potential, which is associated with the Latin American region and the exodus of business from the markets of Russia and Ukraine — once the most important emerging markets for them.

With the population of more than 47 million people and a status of the second largest country in the Latin American region, Argentina has always been under the radar of some major tea and coffee producers.

Emanuele Uccellini, the Caribbean and Latin America BU Director for Lavazza Group BU Americas told T&CTJ in an exclusive interview, that Lavazza has been present in the Argentina for many years, and that the market represents a top priority within the Latin America region for two main reasons:

1. The growing interest of consumers in high-quality coffee brands. The demand for specialty coffees has been increasing significantly, especially during the pandemic, and we’ve seen the trend keep growing, mostly among younger consumers.
2. The relevant presence of people with Italian roots: they always feel at home when they sip a good Lavazza cup of coffee.

The Argentinian coffee market has always been of interest to other global majors as well.

One of them is JDE Peet’s, which in recent years has significantly strengthened its positions in the local market. A spokesperson for JDE Peet’s, said, “JDE Peet’s does sell a range of products across our brand portfolio in Argentina including NCC capsules. We anticipate that the demand for coffee and tea will only continue to grow globally. We recently signed an agreement to acquire Marata’s coffee and tea business in Brazil, and South America in general is an area in which demand for coffee and tea is increasing.”

The Argentinian market also attracts the interest of global coffee chains, many of which are considering accelerating expansion in the local market in years to come, which is primarily done through the expansion of the existing portfolio. One example is Starbucks, which considers the local market as a priority for its growth.

A Starbucks’ spokesperson told T&CTJ, “Starbucks entered Argentina in 2008 with our first store in Buenos Aires. Today, the brand operates over 130 stores in the market, providing employment opportunities to over 1,700 green apron partners,” noting that earlier this year, Starbucks celebrated its 15^th anniversary in Argentina, together with its licensed business operator, Alsea.

In April 2023, the spokesperson said that Argentina took a significant step toward a more sustainable future by certifying its first two Starbucks Greener Stores. “This is part of Starbucks global vision to have 3,500 Greener Store-certified locations worldwide, aiming to cut our climate, water, and waste footprints in half by 2030. Starbucks Argentina also continues to expand its plant-based menu offerings in an effort to deliver increased options for our customers.”

Furthermore, in collaboration with Alsea, Starbucks announced plans to operate 2,000 Starbucks stores in the 12 markets where Alsea operates the brand globally by the end of 2025.

Starbucks and other leading Western coffee chains operating in the country have faced strong competition with local players. An example of this is Café Martinez chain, a local chain that has almost doubled the number of its outlets within Argentina the last few years and which plans to continue its active expansion in years to come.

Coffee consumption is growing

A senior researcher at Euromonitor International said that in 2022, the total volume sale of coffee in Argentina is set to post a third consecutive year of growth, following a decline during the outbreak of Covid-19. “For the current year and beyond even though consumers have returned to pre-pandemic habits, total volume consumption is forecast to grow much slower. This is due to the long-term unstable economy, increased poverty, and high inflation, which is diminishing the purchasing power of middle and low-income consumers.”

However, coffee is set to post the highest total volume and current retail value growth in hot drinks, driven by the widening use of instant coffee, which began seeing consumption growth in 2021 and 2022. Instant coffee benefits from being affordable, while offering a widening variety of coffee mixes. New coffee consumers tend to start with lighter options, with less coffee flavour and with more milk content, with the inclusion of chocolate and other ingredients.

The coffee industry has suffered a major world price hike due to drought conditions in Brazil, which led to considerably lower production and higher freight costs. Coffee pod consumption rocketed as consumers prioritised high-quality coffee with a desire to replicate foodservice experiences at home. The coffee pod category was also stimulated by a continuous entry of new brands, including La Morenita, La Virginia, Jacobs, L’Or, Viaggio, and Nestlé Argentina’s latest novelty with Starbucks. Sales of coffee pods were fueled by the growth of ecommerce, the fastest-growing channel in the hots drinks industry in 2022.

According to Euromonitor’s spokesman, retail value sales of coffee in Argentina increased by 67 percent in current terms in 2022 to ARS 80.3 billion The instant coffee mix category was the best performing one in 2022, with retail value sales rising by 75 percent in current terms to ARS 5.4 billion. Retail sales in 2022 had a CAGR of 59 percent, hitting ARS 811 billion (CAGR of 15 percent over the forecast period 2022-2027).

Coffee does grow in Argentina; however, it is produced in only a single plantation in the Yungas — a bioregion of a narrow band of forest along the eastern slope of the Andes Mountains from Peru and Bolivia. It emerged in the early 1970s under the name of Café Baritú when authorities in the province launched an ambitious plan to make Northern Argentina a coffee-producing area.

Graciela Ortiz, the owner of Café Baritú in an interview with the Argentinian iProfesional business paper said that the coffee produced on the Salta farm is Arabica. “It is actually a mixture of two Arabicas, one Colombian and the other Brazilian,” he specifies. “It has a very subtle flavour, with fruity, perfumed notes.”

As for coffee, although Argentina is still far from countries like Norway, Finland or the United States in terms of coffee consumption – being stagnant for years at a per capita consumption of only one kilo per year – the sector has shown sustained growth recently, which is mainly due to the rise of popularity of coffee among local customers.

According to a study conducted by the Argentine Coffee Chamber in collaboration with the firm The Brand Bean, today, coffee in Argentina represents 45 percent of the beverages chosen compared to all other beverages and is consumed mostly by people between 25 and 44 years old.

Most local citizens prefer milder coffees instead of stronger roasts as in many European countries. According to some media reports, an average of one kilo of coffee per capita is consumed annually (208 cups) in the country, with the instant variety being the most consumed. Nine out of 10 Argentines prepare it at home and approximately 50 percent of consumers add milk.

Regarding the most chosen varieties, young people seek to customise it and choose to consume cold and instant coffees. On the other hand, those over 35 years of age choose the capsule format.

According to experts of La Nacion, local consumers are increasingly interested in knowing everything about the product: who makes it, what differential attributes it has, what extraction method enhances it, what the differences are between varietals and what the different types of filtering are like. In addition to choosing coffees from more exotic origins, such as Kenya, the Dominican Republic, Honduras or Haiti, they also turn to cold brew when the temperature rises.

Tea-growing & consuming are strong

In the case of tea, retail value sales grew by 62 percent in current terms in 2022 to ARS 21.3 billion. Green tea was the best performing category in 2022, with retail value sales rising by 73 percent in current terms to ARS131 million.

Retail tea sales had a CAGR of 41 percent in 2022, reaching ARS 118 billion (constant value CAGR of 2% over the forecast period).

Tea sales saw growth in total retail volume terms in 2022; resulting from the increasingly positive perception of tea as a healthy option. Argentinian consumers have always been very health conscious, but the outbreak of Covid-19 increased this, with consumers discussing and looking for ways to boost their immune systems. Greater interest has been given to specific functional benefits offered by different tea varieties, particularly those claiming to strengthen the immune system or provide a calming effect. Thus, green tea and herbal/fruit tea have seen strong growth, driven by their functional fortified options.

Argentina has a more robust tea production than that of coffee. According to Argentinian Mitre Y Elcampo business paper, tea production is in the southernmost part of Argentina, located between 26° and 28° South latitude, there are about 6,800 producers with an area of 40,500 hectares. About 94 percent of them are located in the province of Misiones, and the remaining 6 percent are in Corrientes. A characteristic of Argentine tea is its high concentration of polyphenols.

Approximately 90 percent of Argentine tea production is destined for foreign markets and its volume represents almost 2 percent of world consumption. The main destination is the United States, with 70 percent of the production. Currently, Argentina is the main exporter of tea to the United States of America. Other important destinations are Chile, Poland, Russia, Germany; followed by the United Kingdom, India, Malaysia and 30 other countries

The annual volume of tea exports from Argentina are varied in range of 70,000-75,000 tonnes mostly black tea for about USD $75 – $83 million in value terms. Nearly 64 percent of the cultivated area is certified with the RAS Standard (Sustainable Agriculture Network, triple impact).

Tea consumption in Argentina has been steadily growing with the biggest demand being observed in case of gourmet tea. This has even stimulated the development of tea tourism in the region, with the province of Misiones, which is located in the northeastern corner of the country in the Mesopotamia region, at forefront of this.

• Eugene Gerden is an international freelance writer, who specialises in covering the global coffee, tea and agricultural industries. He worked for several industry titles and may be reached at gerden.eug@gmail.com.

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The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 161.53 US cents/lb in November, a 6.3% increase from October 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 161.63 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 153.32 and 169.99 US cents/lb. The November 2023 I-CIP is above the November 2022 I-CIP by 3.1%, with the 12-month rolling average at 163.69 US cents/lb, having ranged in between 151.94 in October 2023 and 178.57 US cents/lb in April 2022. The I-CIP has remained stable around the 160 US cents/lb mark, with daily price variation declining on average for the October 2022 to November 2023 range, only 0.04%.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 5.3% and 7.2%, to 195.85 and 197.18 US cents/lb, respectively, in November 2023. The Brazilian Naturals presented the strongest growth of 8.8%, reaching an average of 169.25 US cents/lb. However, the Robustas also grew by 3.2% to 122.63 US cents/lb. The International Coffee Exchanges’s (ICE) New York market was a strong driver of the positive growth, growing by 9.2% to 170.25 US cents/lb whilst the London Futures market expanded by 4.8%, to 110.45 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential contracted from 2.02 to 1.33 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 12.6% % to 26.60 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential also expanded 9.1% from October to November 2023, averaging 73.22 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential contracted 1.8%, reaching 27.93 US cents/lb. However, the Other Milds–Robustas and the Brazilian Naturals–Robustas differentials expanded 14.5% and 27.1%, averaging 74.55 and 46.62 US cents/lb, respectively, in November 2023.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 18.4% to 59.81 US cents/lb in November 2023. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP was raised to 8.0% between October and November 2023. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also increased to 8.7% and 8.8%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility rose by 1.1 percentage points to 9.7% from October to November 2023. The Robustas presented the smallest volatility increase, with a 0.8 percentage point gain, averaging 8.3% for the month of November. The London Futures market’s volatility decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 9.1%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in tandem to that of London, expanding by 2.4 percentage points and reaching 10.5%.

The New York and London certified stocks continued on their downward trajectory, where London retracted by 49.2% to 0.34 million 60-kg bags, the lowest figure recorded since March 2014. Certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.32 million 60-kg bags, a 24.5% decrease.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global exports of green beans in October 2023 totalled 8.57 million bags, compared with 8.61 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 0.4%. The downturn was driven by the Robustas, the only one of the four groups to start coffee year 2023/24 with negative growth.

The Brazilian Naturals made a strong start to the new coffee year, with exports increasing by 10.0% to 4.02 million bags from 3.66 million bags in October 2022. This is the second-highest volume exported in the month of October on record, just behind the 3.9 million bags shipped in 2020. Brazil was the main driver of this strong start, with the origin’s total green bean exports up 23.0% to 4.08 million bags in October 2023, which is also the country’s second-highest volume of exports in the month of October to be documented.

Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 0.2% to 1.031 million bags in October 2023 from 1.03 million bags in October 2022. The near-stagnant start to the new coffee year was due to the conflation of the continued downturn in Colombia, the largest producer and export of the Colombian Milds, and the strong start made by Kenya and Tanzania, the two other origins that make up this coffee group.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 1.8% in October 2023 to 1.59 million bags from 1.62 million bags in the same period last year. The main negative contributions came from Brazil (down 66.2% and 78,719 bags) and Papua New Guinea (down 34.3% and 53,737 bags), while Honduras provided the largest positive contribution (up 28.9% and 138,993 bags).

Of the four coffee groups, the Robustas have recorded the highest contraction in the new coffee year to date, with exports falling by 8.0% to 2.88 million bags from 3.14 million bags. Vietnam, the largest Robusta producer in the world, was the driver of the sharp downturn, with exports of Robusta green beans down 45.2% to 0.69 million bags in October 2023 from 1.26 million bags in October 2022.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In October 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 16.4% to 5.95 million bags. Brazil was the main driving force of the double-digit growth of the region, having shipped 4.37 million bags in October 2023, a jump of 21.7%. Peru provided added support, with its exports increasing by 28.9% to 0.62 million bags from 0.48 million bags in October 2022.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania totalled 2.05 million bags in October 2023, decreasing by 26.7%. Vietnam, the world’s second-largest producer and exporter of coffee, was the main driver of the region’s sharp downturn, with total exports down 44.7% to 0.75 million bags in October 2023 from 1.36 million bags in October 2022. This was the lowest volume of exports since the 0.7 million bags shipped in October 2008. A shortage of exportable materials within Vietnam, due to the lower-than-expected harvest in coffee year 2022/23, a delay in supply from the current coffee year’s harvest and a very strong export performance in the first nine months of the previous coffee year, explain the sharp downturn.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 1.0% to 1.07 million bags in October 2023 from 1.08 million bags in October 2022. Ethiopia (–13.5%), Rwanda (–34.8%) and Cameroon (–57.4%) were the three main origins making a negative contribution to the region’s exports, in absolute terms, while Burundi (200.0%), Côte d’Ivoire (40.9%), Kenya (31.4%) and Uganda (2.8%) were the main origins making positive contributions. According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, the promising export performance in October 2023 was due to adequate supply from a good crop harvest in the South-Western region and the prevailing good prices on the global scene which prompted exporters to release their stocks. In Ethiopia, contract disputes arising out of a mismatch between local purchasing prices and the global market prices, first reported in the middle of coffee year 2022/23, continue to negatively impact export volume in the new coffee year.

In October 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were up 0.4% to 0.459 million bags as compared with 0.457 million in October 2022. The performances of individual origins belied the less-than-dynamic growth of the region, with very strong negative and positive growth rates registered in October: Costa Rica (212.7%), El Salvador (69.6%), Guatemala (18.0%) and Nicaragua (15.6%) on the expansion side against the decreasing Dominican Republic (–80.1%), Honduras (–39.2%) and Mexico (–11.1%).

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 16.9% in October 2023 to 0.91 million bags from 0.78 million bags in October 2022. Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 10.6% in October 2023, up from 9.0% for the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.28 million bags in October 2023. Exports of roasted beans were down 20.4% in October 2023 to 49,185 bags, as compared with 61,781 bags in October 2022.

Production and Consumption
World coffee production increased by 0.1% to 168.2 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. The stagnant growth rate belies the tremendous changes at the regional level, with the coffee world neatly split between the expanding Americas and the shrinking rest of the world.

Asia & Oceania and Africa’s 4.7% and 7.2% decreases in production to 49.84 million bags and 17.9 million bags, respectively, can be attributed to adverse weather conditions negatively affecting key producers in the regions, particularly Vietnam, Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda. The magnitude of the fall in outputs of the two regions was entirely mitigated by the Americas, especially by South America’s 4.8% increase, which in turn was driven mainly by the biennial production-affected 8.4% increase in Brazil.

The combined output of the Americas was 100.5 million bags. The Americas versus the rest of the world split was also reflected in the production split between the Arabicas and Robustas, with the former’s output increasing by 1.8% to 94.0 million bags as compared with the 2.0% decrease of the latter to 74.2 million bags.

Looking ahead, the output for coffee year 2023/24 is expected to increase by 5.8% to 178.0 million bags, with the Arabicas’ output rising to 102.2 million bags and the Robustas’ increasing to 75.8 million bags.

The biennial production effect will play a large role in the outlook, especially for Brazil and the Arabicas, as the impact of the July 2021 frost continues to be resolved. Coffee year 2023/24 is anticipated to be an exceptional off-biennial year, feeling more like a good on-biennial following an average on-biennial year. Adverse weather conditions, first noted in 2022 and continuing into 2023, will have a negative impact on the outlook for coffee year 2023/24. The anticipated El Niño phenomenon is set to dampen the outlook in Asia, especially for origins like Indonesia. Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to benefit from the drier/hotter weather as irrigation mitigates the reduced precipitation.

World coffee consumption is continuing to resolve through the issues brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic, with the consumption trend following an established patten in response to an external shock. The expectation for coffee year 2022/23 was for a smaller positive growth rate; however, world coffee consumption actually recorded a decrease of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags.

Consumption in coffee year 2022/23 did not faithfully follow the established pattern due to the impact of the high cost of living, falling disposable incomes and a long stocks drawdown. Despite coffee being relatively inelastic, the challenging global economic environment would have had a negative impact on its consumption. The world inflation rate was at its highest in 2021 at 9.4%, while the benchmark interest rate averaged 4.9% at the end of September 2023 in the European Union, UK and USA, the highest level since an average of 5.8% in 2000. At the same time, there was a large drawdown of stocks, where combined stocks reported by the European Coffee Federation and those held at the Intercontinental Exchange’s warehouses in the USA fell by 4.8 million bags from 14.5 million to 9.8 million. This drawdown would have reduced the need for purchases on the international market, seemingly reflected as lower and anomalous global consumption rates for coffee year 2022/23.

The world coffee consumption outlook for coffee year 2023/24 is broadly framed by the assumption that the global economy will continue to grow at above 3.0%, and that the industry will respond to the large drawdown of stocks, which will be positively reflected in apparent consumption. As a result, world coffee consumption is expected to grow by 2.2% to 177.0 million bags, with non-producing countries making the biggest contribution to the overall increase. Coffee consumption in this group of countries should expand by 2.1%.

Balance. As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run a surplus of 1.0 million bags in coffee year 2023/24.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). To download the full report or for more information, visit: icocoffee.org.

The post <strong>Coffee prices remain stable averaging above 160 US cents/lb in November 2023</strong> appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

This label verifies the origin and quality of coffee produced using regenerative practices that are received in the warehouses. To acquire the certification, Expocacer’s environmental, social, and governance responsibility was evaluated, and it received 100% approval in these criteria.

“Projects and initiatives such as ‘Elas no Café,’ ‘Jornada da Qualidade,’ ‘Expocacer Teens,’ and others that work to promote sustainable actions within the coffee community were essential for this achievement, along with our exclusive department dedicated to sustainability-related matters, where we provide guidance to our members,” said Simão Pedro de Lima, executive director of Expocacer.

Regenerative coffee farming adopts practices aimed at preserving soil health, increasing biodiversity, protecting water resources, and enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems. Among the advantages of regenerative practices are the preservation of flora and fauna, cost reduction, decreased pollution, improved coffee quality, increased resilience to climate change, and reduced deforestation. This year, with support from Brazilian Support Service for Micro and Small Businesses (Sebrae), Expocacer has already managed to certify 14 cooperative members, a number that is expected to grow to 24 by the end of 2023.

“We are very proud because this achievement confirms the work that has been carried out for years by Expocacer. This certification strengthens our commitment to ensuring sustainable and high-quality coffee production for our cooperative members, customers, employees, and commercial and institutional partners,” commented Farlla Gomes, sustainability manager of Expocacer.

For the cooperative, the automated traceability that utilises RFID technology (radio-frequency identification) and allows producers to know the exact location of their coffee in the cooperative’s warehouses was also a differentiating factor in obtaining the certification, recognising the care that Expocacer takes with the coffee from its members.

Recently, the world’s first regenerative agriculture-certified coffee has also begun to be distributed globally in retail by the Italian brand Illy Caffè, in partnership with the Cerrado Coffee Growers Federation and Expocacer. With notes of intense caramel, the product is already available in 50 countries, with plans to expand to 140 by 2024.

“Obtaining the regenerative certification for Expocacer represents reaching a higher level of value expansion because this achievement directly influences the core of our business. It’s the conjunction of a set of ideas, strategies, and attitudes that are ecologically correct, economically viable and socially fair, ensuring a supply without compromising the one future generations,” concluded Flávia Nunes, director of operations and logistics at Expocacer.

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The Colombia coffee is a single origin ground blend that tastes fruity and sweet, with notes of berries and caramel and Colombian coffee’s renowned smooth taste and aroma.

Löfbergs’ launch into Waitrose also sees the brand unveil a new packaging design. The new packaging remains in-keeping with the bright colours the brand is recognisable for, but further celebrates Löfbergs’ Swedish heritage with Scandi design.

The design of Löfbergs’ offers, on average, a 450g pack, providing 15 more cups of coffee than more traditional coffee bag designs.

Löfbergs selection of coffee includes:

• Colombia Roast & Ground Coffee 450g – Fruity and sweet with notes of berries and caramel. This single origin, 100% Arabica coffee is Rainforest Alliance Certified.
  Medium Roast – 3
  RRP- £7.50.
  Stockist – Waitrose
• Brazil Roast & Ground Coffee 450g – Rich and creamy with notes of milk chocolate nuts. This single origin, 100% Arabica coffee is Rainforest Alliance Certified.
  Medium-Dark Roast – 4
  RRP – £7.50
  Stockist – Waitrose, Tesco and Ocado
• Brazil Whole Beans Coffee 1kg – Rich and creamy with notes of milk chocolate nuts. This single origin, 100% Arabica coffee is Rainforest Alliance Certified.
  Medium-Dark Roast – 4
  RRP- £12.50
  Stockist – Waitrose, Tesco and Ocado

Löfbergs strives to be responsible in its business operations by reducing waste and supporting small-scale farmers, to respect people and the planet – “from bean to cup.” It’s also the world’s largest buyer of organic and fairtrade certified coffee.

Wilson Clarke, MD for Löfbergs UK, commented on the new listing, “Securing this new listing in Waitrose is a testament to the success we have seen in the UK since launching. In the last 52 weeks, we have seen sales volume increase by 561.9%, selling a total of 257.2 tonnes of coffee!

“We are really excited to build on the 3.1% market share the 1kg Brazil has by getting it and our other products into more homes across the UK.”

For more information, visit: Lofbergs.co.uk

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Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 151.94 US cents/lb in October, a 0.8% decline from September 2023. The I-CIP posted a median value of 151.58 US cents/lb, having fluctuated between 145.99 and 160.09 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 0.5% and 0.2%, to 185.97 and 183.95 US cents/lb, respectively, in October 2023. The Brazilian Naturals presented the strongest growth of 0.9%, reaching an average of 155.52 US cents/lb. However, Robustas retracted 4.1% to 118.83 US cents/lb. ICE’s New York market grew by 1.5% whilst the London Futures market shrank by 3.4%, to 155.91 and 105.40 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential grew 38.5% to 2.02 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 1.1% to 30.45 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential also expanded 9.9% from September to October 2023, averaging 67.14 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential contracted 3.1%, reaching 28.43 US cents/lb. However, the Other Milds-Robustas and the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials expanded 9.2% and 21.1%, averaging 65.12 and 36.69 US cents/lb, respectively, in October 2023.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, widened by 13.7% to 50.51 US cents/lb in October 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP remained stable at 6.3% between September and October 2023. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also increased to 6.8% and 7.6%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.6% from September to October 2023. The Robustas presented the smallest volatility increase, with a 0.1 percentage point gain, averaging 7.5% for the month of October. The London Futures market’s volatility decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 6.7%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the opposite direction to that of London, expanding by 0.4 percentage points and reaching 8.1%.

The New York and London certified stocks moved in the same downward direction, where London retracted by 7.9% to 0.67 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.44 million 60-kg bags, a 10.7% decrease and the lowest figure since October 2022.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in September 2023 totalled 7.8 million bags, as compared with 8.83 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 11.6%. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of green beans were down 5.5% to 110.81 million bags from 117.28 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The global macro-economic environment was not conducive to consumer confidence in coffee year 2022/23, with global inflation and interest rates in many of the key advanced economies high and rising, increasing the cost of living and thus reducing disposable income levels for a very large section of the world.

These conditions seemingly support a downturn in the consumption of coffee and consequently in global exports of green beans. Nevertheless, the global economy was not only projected to expand in calendar year 2023, but the outlook was also raised between April–October 2023 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which suggests otherwise. The drop in global exports of green beans in coffee year 2022/23 may therefore lie more with logistics/the supply chain than the economy and actual consumption of coffee. Average green bean exports amounted to 118.13 million bags in coffee years 2018/19–2021/22, as compared with an average 109.59 million bags for coffee years 2014/15–2017/18, a jump of 8.54 million bags. This suggests a build-up of stocks in non-producing countries which have been heavily drawn down in the past 12 months.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 13.1% in September 2023 to 1.57 million bags from 1.8 million bags in the same period last year. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Other Milds were down 12.1% to 22.11 million bags from 25.16 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals decreased in September 2023, falling by 13.4% to 2.69 million bags. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Brazilian Naturals were down 8.5% to 34.17 million bags from 37.33 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Exports of the Colombian Milds increased by 6.7% to 0.87 million bags in September 2023 from 0.82 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Colombian Milds were down 11.2% to 10.77 million bags from 12.14 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. For coffee year 2022/23, total green bean exports of the Arabicas were down 10.1% to 67.05 million bags from 74.63 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Overall, for the Arabicas, exports were seemingly negatively affected by the drawdown of stocks in consuming countries, with buyers staying away from the markets in coffee year 2022/23. Furthermore, substitution towards the more competitively priced Robustas, induced by the increased cost of living and reduced disposable income, would have also added to the downturn (see Green Coffee Price).

Exports of the Colombian Milds fell below the 11.0 million bags mark for the first time since coffee year 2012/13. These exports were primarily driven by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, and weather-related disruption affected supply throughout most of coffee year 2022/23. Indeed, Colombia’s green bean exports contracted for the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, with only September 2023 showing an expansion. Figures for the year show that, overall, the country’s exports declined 13.1% to 9.42 million bags, the first time they have dropped below 10.0 million bags since coffee year 2013/14.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 2.67 million bags in September 2023, as compared with 3.09 million bags in September 2022, down 13.8%. For coffee year 2022/23, exports of the Robustas were up 2.6% to 43.76 million bags from 42.66 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Of the four groups of coffee, the Robustas were the only group to experience positive growth in coffee year 2022/23, benefitting from macro-economic-induced substitution away from less competitively priced Arabicas.

The September 2023 exports represent the lowest September volume for the Robustas since the 2.58 million bags shipped in 2012 and were a result of the 43.4% decrease in exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the group, which only shipped 0.81 million bags – the lowest September exports since 2008 (0.79 million bags). Vietnam has been struggling with supply since the start of Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, when very low in-origin stock levels were reported at a time when the start of the harvest still remained three to four months away. The low September 2023 export levels appear to be a continuation of the industry’s deepening struggle with supply issues.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In September 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.4% to 4.74 million bags. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 11.0% to 50.59 million bags from 56.83 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The region’s two largest producers and exporters, Brazil and Colombia, saw their total exports fall by 7.9% and 12.8%, respectively. South America’s fortunes are closely tied to the fortunes of the Arabicas and many of the same factors that explain the latter’s double-digit fall also explain the former’s. After all, from coffee year 2018/19 to 2022/23, 93.2% of the total green bean exports from South America were Arabicas, on average. The drawdown of stocks in consuming countries and substitution towards the Robustas are the two main factors. Two specific and additional factors are that (i) Brazil’s export performance was poor due to its relatively limited supply following two consecutive years of below-par harvests; and (ii) Colombia struggled with weather-impacted supply conditions that negatively affected the origin’s export volume.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 1.9% to 1.21 million bags in September 2023 from 1.23 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 1.4% to 13.53 million bags from 13.73 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The relatively strong global demand for Robustas was the fundamental source of Africa’s positive export growth rate in coffee year 2022/23. Moreover, particularly during Q4 of coffee year 2022/23, the reduced volume of exports from the Asia and Oceania region, and more pointedly from Vietnam, strengthened Africa’s own export performance. Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, took the opportunity to fill the gap in the market left by Vietnam and the Asia and Oceania region as a whole.

In September 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 9.2% to 0.74 million bags as compared with 0.81 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 3.1% to 15.3 million bags from 15.78 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. The downturn was primarily driven by Guatemala and Mexico, which suffered 11.5% and 16.5% decreases, respectively. However, the mitigating factor that limited the region’s fall in exports to a low single-digit decrease was Honduras’ 13.5% increase.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 35.7% to 1.91 million bags in September 2023 as compared with 2.98 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, the region’s exports were down 0.9% to 43.56 million bags from 43.95 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. Asia and Oceania’s fortunes are closely tied to the fortunes of the Robustas and many of the same factors that explain the latter’s single-digit increase also explain the former’s. From coffee year 2018/19 to 2022/23, 89.1% of the total green bean exports from Asia & Oceania were Robustas, on average. In coffee year 2022/23, Vietnam’s exports were up 0.4% to 28.29 million bags from 28.19 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 27.3% in September 2023 to 0.75 million bags from 1.03 million bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, soluble coffee exports were down 5.7% to 11.47 million bags from 12.16 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.7% in September 2023, down from 10.4% for the same period a year ago. For coffee year 2022/23, soluble coffee’s share of the total exports was 9.3%, the same as in coffee year 2021/22. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.27 million bags in September 2023 and 3.77 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

Exports of roasted beans were down 26.7% in September 2023 to 55,203 bags, as compared with 75,355 bags in September 2022. For coffee year 2022/23, roasted coffee exports were down 16.0% to 0.71 million bags from 0.84 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23.

The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year. Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). To download the full CRO or for more information, visit the ICO website: icocoffee.org.

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Oritain’s innovative forensic science provides a guarantee of Brazilian coffee’s provenance and origin no matter where it ends up in the world. Building on existing provenance mapping work in Brazil with Nestlé and the Federation of Coffee Growers of Cerrado Mineiro, this initiative puts Brazil at the forefront of scientific traceability in coffee. Through this work with the BSCA, Oritain will be able to ascertain, at any point in the supply chain, the origin of Brazilian coffee at both a national and regional level, providing a new level of assurance and transparency to buyers and consumers.

Regulation is demanding origin verification. Verification systems put in place by BSCA and Oritain are compliant with recent European Union anti-deforestation regulations, which veto imports that do not comply with environmental requirements.

Consumers too are demanding proof of origin. Research commissioned by Oritain in May 2023 indicated that Brazilian consumers are deeply concerned about the origin of their products, especially coffee. It showed that 96.9% of respondents were positive toward manufacturers that disclose origin; and 78.2% considered that a product is only truly sustainable if its origin is known.  Coffee lovers in markets such as Europe, North America, New Zealand and Australia are also demanding proveable actions from coffee brands with regards to sustainability.

Vincius Estrela, executive director of Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association, shared the announcement; “Putting in place traceability systems is an essential way of walking the walk and avoiding greenwashing accusations. Sanctity of Brazilian origin is essential to our specialty coffee growers, roasters and exporters. Brazilian coffee is exported all over the world. We are looking for a way to provide a guarantee to regulators, investors, buyers and most importantly our valued customers all over the world that our coffee is 100% Brazilian and compliant with international regulations to combat deforestation, environmental harm, unethical labour practices and food fraud.

“Our partnership with Oritain and the ‘Oritain Fingerprint’ gives our customers, investors and partners 100% confidence that the coffee they enjoy every day is ethically sourced, environmentally positive and of Brazil. For BSCA, it supports our claim that Brazilian coffee is true to source, from earth to cup, we have always been able to taste the difference – today we can prove it scientifically, even at regional level.”

Pioneered in New Zealand, Oritain has become the global leader in applying forensic science and data to verify product origin.

Commenting on the partnership Oritain CEO, Grant Cochrane said “Oritain is delighted to be partnering with the Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association to leverage the integrity of forensic science for the benefit of award-winning Brazilian regional coffees. Oritain and Nestlé Brazil launched a partnership that covered three Brazilian regions in June this year. BSCA is building on this work and paving the way for coffee consumers worldwide to benefit from unmatched traceability of Brazilian coffee, which we can scientifically prove at farm, regional and country level. The strategic vision and commitment to the project by BSCA is key to establishing Brazil as a global leader in coffee traceability.”

How does it work?
Wherever you are in the world, the geochemistry of the land differs, even in the case of parcels of land that are only a few metres apart. As coffee grows, it absorbs a unique ratio of elements depending on the mesoclimate, altitude, precipitation, soil type and growing conditions. Using cutting edge forensic science, Oritain can identify this unique ratio in the soil that is ‘imprinted’, creating an unchanging scientific link that runs through the land, the beans and the eventual cup of coffee.

The BSCA partnership with Oritain will map key coffee regions of Brazil based on these geochemical elements, to create origin fingerprints that can be then used to test against.

Gabriela Castro-Fontoura, Oritain regional director for Latin America said, “Coffee lovers around the world demand to know that the coffee in their cup comes from its claimed region, is the genuine article and has not been a part of deforestation or unethical labour practices. Oritain’s partnership with BSCA means the Brazilian coffee industry can now offer buyers, traders, importers and roasters all over the world an enhanced level of traceability – which they can share with consumers, regulators and investors. At any stage of the supply chain, Oritain can verify and guarantee, with forensic science, the origin of the coffee at a regional level, no matter how many transactions are involved or how complex the market is. BSCA has paved the way for Brazilian producers and exporters, but also for importers, roasters and brands worldwide, to work with Oritain to share the outcomes of this origin mapping work with their customers, regulators and investors.”

The post BSCA to forensically verify its coffee’s provenance appeared first on Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.

Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 153.13 US cents/lb in September, posting a median value of 152.74 US cents/lb and fluctuating between 147.86 and 160.17 US cents/lb.

The Robustas remained at a near-record high in September, staying firmly above the 120.00 US cents/lb mark. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 1.4% and 1.7%, to 184.98 and 183.52 US cents/lb, respectively, in September 2023. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas both contracted by 0.3% and 0.6%, reaching an average of 154.19 and 123.89 US cents/lb, respectively. ICE’s New York market fell by 1.9%, whilst the London Futures market shrank by 2.0%, to 153.55 and 109.14 US cents/lb, respectively.

The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential grew 79.1% to 1.46 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential shrank 6.4% to 30.79 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas differential also contracted 2.9% from August to September 2023, averaging 61.09 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals and the Other Milds-Robustas both contracted 8.6 and 4.0%, reaching 29.33 and 59.63 US cents/lb, respectively. However, the Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differentials expanded 0.9%, averaging 30.30 US cents/lb in September 2023.

In September 2023, the Colombian Milds-Other Milds Arabica differential fluctuated between positive and negative.

Arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York Futures markets, narrowed by 1.8% to 44.41 US cents/lb in September 2023. This marks the lowest point since October 2019, when arbitrage sat at 44.07 US cents/lb.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP followed a consistent downtrend, reaching 6.3%, a 0.7 percentage point decrease between August and September 2023. The Robustas presented the strongest volatility decrease, with a 1.3 percentage point drop, averaging 7.4% for the month of September. The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ volatility also contracted to 6.5% and 6.8%. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals’ volatility dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 8.1% from August to September 2023, whilst the London futures market’s volatility also decreased by 2.1 to 7.3%. Lastly, the New York futures market’s volatility moved in the same direction as London, retracting by 0.9 percentage points and reaching 7.7% for New York.

The New York and London certified stocks moved in opposite directions, where London grew 25.7% to 0.73 million 60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Arabica coffee reached 0.49 million 60-kg bags, a 13.8% decrease.

The absence of market participants, as evidenced by the falling exports (see Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans), continued to prevail over the I-CIP, explaining the overarching trajectory of the I-CIP in September. However, currency movements, market sentiments, dwindling supplies, weather and the fundamentals all played their part in the coffee price movements in September, which saw the I-CIP rally, before falling once again due to foreign exchange movements.

From 22 August to 19 September 2023, the I-CIP recovered, increasing from a low of 148.79 to 160.17 US Cents/lb, ie, an increase of 7.6%. This came on the back of reports of heavy rain in Brazil and a continued fall in the certified stocks held at the New York ICE warehouses. Somar Meteorologia, a Brazilian meteorology company, reported on 5 September that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, the country’s largest coffee producing region, received 22.8 mm of rain in the past week, or 308% of the historical average, leading to speculation regarding a delay in the completion of Brazil’s coffee harvest. Meanwhile, ICE’s Arabica inventories fell to a low of 0.49 million bags in September. The impact of these positive factors was more profound on the prices of the Arabicas, particularly the Brazilian Naturals which rallied by 5.3% and 81.%, respectively.

Nevertheless, this rally was halted and reversed by the sharp weakening of the real against the US dollar. From 19 to 29 September the real depreciated by 3.2%, from 4.87 to 5.03, while the I-CIP fell by 7.1% over the same period. Once again, the negative impact was felt relatively more by the Arabicas (-8.1%) and particularly the Brazilian Naturals (-9.3%) as compared with Robustas (-5.9%). The price of the Robustas fell at a relatively slower rate due to Vietnam’s current dwindling supply (see Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee), with supply from the 2023/24 harvest still at least two months away in November at the earliest.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in August 2023 totalled 9.36 million bags, as compared with 9.07 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 3.2%. As a result, the cumulative total for 2022/23 to August is 102.9 million bags, as compared with 108.26 million bags over the same period a year ago, down 5.0%.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 9.7% in August 2023 to 1.99 million bags from 2.2 million bags in the same period last year. As a result, the cumulative volume of exports continued to fall, decreasing by 12.2% in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23 to 20.56 million bags, versus 23.42 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals increased in August 2023, rising by 10.2% to 3.06 million bags. For the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 31.5 million bags, down 8.0% from 34.22 million bags over the same period a year ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly due to changes in Brazil’s total green bean exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also increased in August 2023 (27.6%) to 3.35 million bags from 2.63 million bags in August 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 2.1% to 0.84 million bags in August 2023 from 0.86 million bags in August 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 5.6% in August 2023. This is the fourteenth consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were down 12.5%, at 9.9 million bags, as compared with 11.32 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 3.47 million bags in August 2023, as compared with 3.22 million bags in August 2022, up 7.3%. This is the fifth consecutive month of positive growth for the Robustas and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee for October 2022 to August 2023 were up 4.2%, at 40.94 million bags, as compared with 39.31 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2021/22.

Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In August 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 13.0% to 4.98 million bags. This is the first positive growth rate for the region since the 0.3% expansion in June 2022. The source of both the positive and strength of growth is Brazil, which saw its exports increase by 24.4% to 3.67 million bags from 2.95 million bags in August 2022. More specifically, it was the Robustas from the origin, which in August increased by 388.1% to 0.7 million bags from 0.14 million bags, that drove the region’s positive growth. The August 2023 exports are Brazil’s highest on record for Robusta coffee, beating the 696,873 bags exported in December 2014.

Fundamentally, the region’s turnaround is due to the recent downturn in Asia and Oceania, especially in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer and exporter. Pointedly, Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of Robustas in South America, and it has been taking advantage of the reduced volume of Robustas coming out of Vietnam. It is pertinent to note that Brazil is the fifth biggest exporter of Robustas in the world, having shipped 1.87 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 as compared with the 25.44 million bags exported from Vietnam or the 4.89 million, 4.28 million and 4.03 million bags from Uganda, India and Indonesia, respectively, the second, third and fourth largest exporters. However, in August 2023, Brazilian Robusta exports were second only to Vietnam with 1.34 million bags. To put this into perspective, in August 2023 Brazil exported the equivalent of four-and-half months’ worth of Robustas in a single month (as measured against the total Robusta exports in coffee year 2021/22).

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 10.9% to 1.37 million bags in August 2023 from 1.23 million bags in August 2022. For the first 11 months of the current coffee year, exports totalled 10.84 million bags as compared with 12.31 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, down 1.5%. This is the third consecutive month of positive growth rate for the region. The continued global demand for Robustas, as reflected in the latest cumulative positive growth rates for Robusta green bean exports, is the fundamental source of Africa’s positive export growth rate in August. However, like the situation in South America, the reduced volume from the Asia and Pacific region, and more pointedly Vietnam, explains this growth.

Uganda, the largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee in Africa, took the opportunity to fill the gap in the market left by Vietnam, increasing its exports by 48.4% to 0.74 million bags in August 2023 from 0.5 million bags in August 2022. This represents the second largest monthly exports on record, just behind the 0.79 million bags exported in March 1973.

In August 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico and Central America were down 2.0% to 1.23 million bags as compared with 1.26 million in August 2022. As a result, total exports are down 2.6% from October 2022 to August 2023 at 14.57 million bags, as compared with 14.96 million bags for the same period a year ago. The relatively shallow negative growth rate of the region masked the dynamic changes at the individual country level.

Two origins experienced strong positive growth rates (Honduras and Nicaragua), with a combined 37.2% increase in August 2023, while three others experienced sharp negative growth rates (Costa Rica, Guatemala and Mexico), with a combined 20.5% decrease. Honduras and Nicaragua outperformed both the region and group of coffee (Other Milds) to which they predominantly belong in August. This may reflect their competitive edge over other origins in Mexico and Central America – the average export unit value of Arabica green beans for Honduras and Nicaragua was 157 US cents/lb for coffee years 2017/18–2021/22, while it was on average 63 US cents/lb higher for the others (excluding Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica) at 220 US cents/lb.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 14.9% to 2.72 million bags in August 2023 and but were up 1.3% to 41.28 million bags in the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23. August’s downturn was mainly due to Vietnam, with exports down 23.6% to 1.44 million bags from 1.98 million bags. This is the lowest month of August exports since the 1.4 million bags shipped in 2012. The decrease can be attributed to the depletion of available supply, reflecting the strength of its exports in the first 10 month of the current coffee year, where between October 2022 and July 2023 Vietnam shipped 25.98 million bags –3.3% higher than the same period in coffee year 2017/18, a record exporting year when the origin shipped 29.73 million bags over the full year.

Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 4.6% in August 2023 to 0.89 million bags from 9.3 million bags in August 2022. In the first 11 months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of 10.46 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 5.7% from the 11.09 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.

Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee for the year to date was 8.6% in August 2023, down from 9.2% for the same period a year ago. Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee, having shipped 0.32 million bags in August 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were down 39.9% in August 2023 to 58,226 bags, as compared with 96,937 bags in August 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to June 2023 was 0.66 million bags, as compared with 0.77 million bags in same period a year ago.

Production and Consumption
Under the current circumstances, the estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23 remain the same.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23. Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year 2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year.

Reflecting its cyclical output, Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6% in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production, is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the Covid-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0% expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The full CRO can be downloaded from the ICO website: icocoffee.org. For further information, contact the Statistics Section at stats@ico.org.

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