The above quote is from Chris Costagli, vice president of food insights lead at Nielsen IQ (NIQ), during his recent National Coffee Association (NCA) webinar, “Mastering Omnichannel Sales in the Coffee Industry” in which he informed attendees that more than half of all food and beverage unit sales originate in the food channel, but in the past year, 3.6 billion units disappeared from the in-store food channel, 67% of which was due to lost sales. Furthermore, the in-store food channel lost 2.41 billion units that completely disappeared from the FMCG industry altogether.

The lost sales can be attributed to consumers:

• Scaling back to reduce spending
• Buying less due to GLP-1s (weight loss drugs)
• More away-from-home consumption

Rising food prices remain top of mind for shoppers so they are buying less. Costagli said the F&B sales in the food channel have trended negatively over the past few years, falling 1.8% in the last year. As such, consumers are taking action to manage spend, and most shoppers have made changes to how they shop to save money — 87% have changed how they shop to save money, and they are using an average 3.9 strategies to do so (such as switching to lower-priced options, buying their favourite brands only when on sale, buying the brand that is on sale, buying essential items only, etc.).

And while 67% of in-store food channel unit loss is due to discontinued purchases, 34% of in-store food channel lost units are unaccounted for. Costagli explained that the ‘lost units’ shifted to other channels, the majority of which were purchased online. “Those shifting trends plus online growth underscore the importance of an omni strategy,” he said, adding that online sales grew 17% over the past year, driven by growth in every department across the store.

Consumers are shopping online – 85% order from pure play online retailers for home delivery and 69% order delivery from hypermarket, supermarket, mass stores – and they are experimenting with emerging retailers like TikTok. “The power of social media is significant and is something that should be used in omnichannel marketing,” Costagli said, adding that consumers using TikTok Shop are being introduced to new brands they did not already know, creating opportunity for some manufacturers and more competition for others. He shared that 62% of TikTok users are familiar with the TikTok shop experience and another 62% of TikTok users are open to making a purchase through TikTok Shop.

In online outlets like TikTok, influencers can have a huge impact, so Costagli suggested brands/manufacturers should lean into social platforms to drive awareness and capitalize on viral opportunities. During the webinar, he highlighted several ‘coffee influencers’ such as Morgan, the 2022 U.S. Barista Championship winner who is teaching 6.2 million TikTokers how to create the best coffee, while Cosette, a TikTok creator who has grown her page to 781.7K followers by sharing how she makes barista-style lattes at home for a fraction of the price.

Social shopping is in its infancy but already its showing strong signs of growth. NIQ revealed that shopping on TikTok generated >$2 billion in CPG sales over the past year. Health and performance food products account for nearly a quarter of TikTok food sales, driven by influencers showcasing health and wellness products.

Gen Z shoppers are more likely to be using third party apps to shop online and they believe AI-enabled tools provide helpful benefits that support their shopping needs. Hence, the smartphone’s role in shopping is evolving and influencing decision making more than ever. “Shoppers are turning to AI for everything from meal planning to diet advice and party inspiration. AI has the potential to influence what consumers buy and where they shop. Within seconds ChatGPT can give consumers product recommendations, suggestions on where to shop and much more,” Costagli explained, adding, “that has real implications for retailers and manufacturers: is AI recommending your brand or your stores?”

Simplicity and trust are paramount when it comes to shopping online. And with only eight seconds to engage online shoppers, it is critical that product information is accurate with the most important callouts. “Above all else, the online shopping experience must be optimized for a ‘Mobile First’ consumer,” said Costagli. NIQ research found that when shopping online:

• 77% of shoppers expect the online product titles to be more specific and transparent,
• 76% of shoppers prefer to have enhanced product content available when purchasing online,
• 90% of online buyers say that primary image quality is the most important factor in an online sale.

Costagli advised brands/manufacturers to create the perfect online store by partnering closely with retail partners and to drive online performance through availability, visibility, and content attractiveness. “Getting the online experience right for shoppers translates into growth.”

Coffee benefitting from the omni space — in fact, a quarter of coffee is sold online. Costagli shared that retailers sold nearly $6 billion worth of coffee online over the past year, up approximately 13%.

“The limits are endless, there are so many options online,” he said. “An omni strategy for coffee can tap into subscription services and direct-to-consumer and can benefit from a strong social media presence. Social media platforms like TikTok Shop are exposing consumers to brands and varieties not found in traditional retailers. This means that the competition for manufacturers is even stronger, including competitors that might not be on your radar.”

Meeting consumers online is a valuable proposition for retailers and manufacturers alike. Consumers are spending more online for coffee than they do in-store and they are buying more. Furthermore, online coffee shoppers are buying more units per occasion which suggests more variety seeking. Costagli advises retailers and manufacturers to promote incremental unit purchasing with wider selection and with purchase incentives.

According to NIQ, non-traditional channels are showing 31% growth in units per shopping occasion. Like TikTok Shop, non-traditional online channels are giving shoppers variety. For coffee drinkers, this means new experiences and flavours. For manufacturers this underscores the importance of innovation, especially in traditional retail both online and off.

Online coffee buyers are more affluent than those who buy coffee in brick ‘n mortar stores. Gen X, millennial and Gen Z consumers all engage differently so it’s essential to know your customer base, said Costagli and asked, “are your brands optimized online to reach coffee buyers where they are?”

No matter the type of site, it’s a fact that consumers are buying coffee online. To find success online, Costagli stressed that manufacturers must prioritize optimizing their search engine visibility and strengthening their social media presence to stay competitive and drive sales. “Navigating today’s market requires a relentless focus on the consumer.”

Vanessa L Facenda, editor, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal.
Keep in touch via email: vanessa@bellpublishing.com Twitter: @TCTradeJournal or LinkedIn: Tea & Coffee Trade Journal

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Despite cutting back on grocery spending, Chris Costagli, vp/food insights lead, Nielsen IQ, in his “Mastering Omnichannel Sales in the Coffee Industry” webinar for the National Coffee Association (NCA), said that foodservice excluding alcohol sales are expected to approach USD $1 trillion this year, adding that foodservice and drinking places are recapturing share of U.S. food sales. “The trend change was dramatic in 2020; driven by more frequent at-home cooking and panic-induced stockpiling. Foodservice and drinking place sales are recovering and projected to recapture the lead in 2026,” he said. (Costagli noted that inflation and high menu prices have contributed to large growth in foodservice; however, these macroeconomic conditions are causing the growth rate to slow.)

It seems that in today’s stressful climate, away-from-home consumption plays an important role in consumers’ mental wellbeing. Despite inflation, Costagli said that most consumers are going out to eat/drink as least as often as usual. Only a quarter of those who eat/drink out have scaled back on the frequency of visits. There are more consumers visiting more often than usual than there are scaling back. “They are more than places to eat and drink,” he explained, “they are vital gathering spots that foster friendship and connection.”

Nielsen IQ (NIQ) found that one-in-five consumers said they would be lost without bars or restaurants. As such, going out weekly is the norm. Per NIQ’s CGA May 2024 US On Premise Impact Report:

• 63% restaurant/bar visitors make at least one trip a week
• 77% plan to go out to eat in the next month
• 47% plan to go out for a drink in the next month

According to Costagli, ‘treating’ is the main reason for going out more. Of the 29% going out more often, treating and variety seeking are leading motivators:

• I have been treating myself 44%
• There are new places that I have wanted to try 35%
• There have been more events than usual 25%
• I want to support local business 23%
• I have been able to save money recently 21%
• I am visiting while I have enough disposable income 19%

‘Away-from-home coffee’ is already considered an ‘affordable indulgence’ so these latest dining out trends bode well for coffee shops and cafés. At one of his NCA Convention presentations (it may have been the virtual convention in 2022 or the 2023 one in Tampa) Matthew Barry, senior beverages insights manager, at Euromonitor International, spoke about the emergence of two types of coffee shops following the Covid-19 pandemic: those offering convenience (speed, mobile orders, etc.) and those offering an experience.

If one of the primary reasons consumers are drinking and dining out is because these places help “foster friendship and connection,” then those coffee shops favouring ‘experience’ over ‘convenience’ have a real opportunity to solidify their establishment as a ‘go to gathering place’ and attract more consumers by elevating or enhancing their in-store experience, through ambiance, menu options, and of course, customer service.

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